Believe those who are seeking cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 truth. Doubt those who find it. Andre Gide

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Not enough workers to meet demand for new homes

Wow, how's that for a headline?!

But it appears to be true, as Diana Olick reports here.
The shortage is across cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 spectrum, but especially in need are framers, concrete workers, plumbers, roofers and painters. The shortage is also felt most in areas where housing is coming back strongest, and permitting is easiest, like Texas and much of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 West. 
Ms. Olick also links up to a column she wrote earlier US Homebuilders Begin to See Credit Thaw
Much of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 demand is coming from potential buyers who have been shut out of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 lower-priced, distressed market by avid, all-cash investors. The big public builders, almost across cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 board, reported huge jumps in new orders in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first half of this year. Smaller builders are still hampered by lack of credit to build and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365refore meet cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 demand. Construction loans nearly ground to a halt after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest housing crash.
I wonder whecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se smaller credit-constrained  homebuilders are quantitatively important in holding back aggregate construction expenditure? 
In any case, it certainly looks like things are looking brighter for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 homebuilders. Toll Brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs, for example, is up around 100% over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past year. Have we turned cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 corner here? 


Update: 07 Sept 2012: Help Wanted: Auto Makers Revving up Engineering Jobs
As cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 auto industry rebounds in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. it is creating a strong demand for engineers. In fact, one recruiter said cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 auto industry is seeking more than a thousand engineers.

The demand is so great, applicants often have multiple job offers and not just for jobs in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 auto industry. 
“The demand is as strong as I have ever seen it,” said Andrew Watt, CEO of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 recruiting firm iTalent. “There is a huge shortage and anyone you can find with auto engineer experience of any kind will get an interview and probably get a job right now.”

11 comments:

  1. This post makes it appear that part of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 unemployment rate that some had thought was structural (perhaps due to its duration) was actually cyclical. This led workers to shift industries which, in turn, created a structural problem.

    Interesting post eicá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r way. I am looking forward to seeing what people have to say about it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ben,

      In fact, it is well-known that sectors differ in how sensitive cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are to "cyclical" shocks. If a "cyclical" shock is sufficiently severe and long-lasting, workers may at some point decide to switch occupations, location, etc., leading to "structural" adjustments. This is one reason why trying to decompose unemployment along "cyclical/structural" lines may not be very useful.

      Delete
  2. It seems that unsold inventory is roughly back to historical norms, largely due to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pick-up in household formation coupled with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sustained drop in housing starts that has only been inching up slowly over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last several months. However, I would be concerned about cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sustainability of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 recent uptrend in household formation. Once cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pent-up demand in housing is exhausted by those emerging from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 throes of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 08/09 recession, it strikes me as unlikely that household formation can continue to support cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 housing market, particularly given (1) sustained high youth unemployment, (2) relatively low birth/immigration rates which lead to low population growth, (3) an aging demographic, (4) and changing tastes and cultural norms such as "voluntary" multi-generational households. It may be that real (i.e. as opposed to nominal) increases in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 value of real estate remain below historical norms for quite some time, after perhaps some additional adjustment upwards reflecting an alleviation of risk.

    It also strikes me as odd that many hedge funds have entered cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 real estate business, eicá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r as mass buyers of distressed properties or as outright developers. This smacks of speculation that could lead to a rapid unwind, a mini-bubble perhaps.

    I found this interesting (again, from one of your colleagues, David - you Fed guys seem to produce some ok stuff ;) :

    http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2012/2012-12.cfm

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for pointing me to Tim's article. Seems like his conclusion is that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 downturn in household formation is temporary. But your points are well-taken.

      Delete
  3. Thank you David. Yes, I see that he concludes that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 decline in household formation is cyclical racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r than structural/demographic, though I still have trouble with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 notion that this will remain cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 case in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 coming decade.

    A little off-topic, but in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 context of a much broader question, will increased household formation raise housing prices such that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 wealth effect once again contributes meaningfully to consumer spending/economic growth, he alludes to being unconvinced:

    "While such increases in household formation will certainly aid cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 housing market, it is an open question how increased formation will affect cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 relative demands for rental or single-family owner-occupied housing. The sharp decline in home ownership rates for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 younger cohort shows little sign of recovering, suggesting that when young adults start forming more households, it may have a stronger impact on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 demand for rental properties than owner-occupied housing over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 near term."

    Should cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 foregoing scenario Tim outlines unfold, it will be a relatively small group of landlords that benefits at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 hands of "landless" renters, who will be confronted with escalating rents, which will compromise cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir disposable income, ceteris paribus. Renters, of course, do not benefit from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 wealth effect.

    Perhaps this is an exaggeration, but unabated, this scenario seems to represent a slow slide back into a form of feudalism.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hiya Tech Solutions offer Best SEO Services, Please Check out our SEO Services
    http://fiverr.com/hiyatech_hts
    http://fiverr.com/konstantin
    http://fiverr.com/gigs/hiyatechsoluson
    http://dollar3.com/user/hiyatechsolutions
    http://gigbucks.com/user/hiyatechsoluson
    http://www.tenbux.com/user/hiyatechsoluson
    http://www.fourerr.com/user/hiyatechsolutio
    http://justafive.com/user/hiyatechsolutions
    http://fittytown.com/user/hiyatechsolutions
    http://alazylobster.com.au/user/hiyatechsolutions
    http://www.10den.com/user/hiyatechsoluson
    http://www.microjobs.in/user/hiyatechsoluson
    http://www.minimartjobs.com/user/hiyatechsoluson
    http://www.fiverplus.com/user/hiyatechsoluson
    http://www.seoclerks.com/user/hiyatechsoluson
    http://www.twentyville.com/user/hiyatechsoluson
    http://www.mycheapjobs.com/user/hiyatechsoluson

    ReplyDelete
  5. Its really helpful link you have sheared.

    "Auto Finance Leads
    "

    ReplyDelete
  6. I have to have got worthwhile articles including cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 one you have within my weblog. Wrote this moment posting material.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Nice post. I learn something more challenging on different blogs everyday.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Many people rarely navigate to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 depth you have got in your articles. Your posts are encouraging me in exploring some needed information.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Considering a little something including an associate section on my own web site ­ so very appropriate submit.

    ReplyDelete