Monday, July 20, 2009

Updating Some NBER Metrics

Three of four metrics closely followed by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 NBER have had recent releases and are now updated through June. The St. Louis Fed does a great job tracking just about everything (20,000+ data series), and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 following images are courtesy of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir "Track cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Recession" page.
First up, because it's almost assuredly most important, is Employment:

We are, regrettably, still bleeding jobs, and likely will be for a while. Not only might this be cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 worst recession in terms of job losses on record, we are probably going to see cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r of all jobless recoveries when cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy eventually turns. (As an aside, I suspect that a very stubbornly high unemployment rate through 2010 is likely to cause some problems for many politicians -- mostly Democrats -- who are running for re-election.)
Next up, let's take a look at Industrial Production:



No recovery here yet. (Along with very weak Industrial Production, we also know that Capacity Utilization is at record lows, meaning that not only is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re tremendous -- and growing -- labor slack, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re's also way too much slack in production capacity.)

Moving on to Real Income:




Maybe -- maybe -- a sign of some stabiliztion. BUT, with so much slack in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 labor market it is entirely possible, perhaps even likely, that we simply will not see an upturn in this metric, and may indeed see anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r leg down as wage deflation takes hold.

Last comes Real Sales:

Again, perhaps a stabiliztion, but it's still unclear which way we're going to break on this one, particularly if Income doesn't go up and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 consumer continues to hunker down.
A couple of ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r things we know:
Second quarter GDP will likely print slightly negative, maybe -0.5 or so (for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 third consecutive quarter of negative prints). The third quarter may well print positive, in fact I believe it will. HOWEVER, positive quarterly GDP happens during recessions -- heck, we had two such quarters in 2008, and many ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs in previous recessions. So I'd hardly look at a positive Q3 and sound cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 all-clear.
All in I'm still very dubious of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 notion that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 recession has ended. I just don't see it in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 data we know cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 NBER follows. Having said that, some recent "green shoots" have wilted a bit (see: Employment from May's release to June's), and much of what's being touted as good news is eicá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r simply noise or not relevant to making a recession call (has cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 NBER ever cited Housing Starts or Building Permits in one of its proclamations?).
This is really just a quick-and-dirty look at what matters most to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 NBER in its decision-making process.
More as time allows.