Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Wrong again, Doomers: State tax receipts are going *UP*!

- by New Deal democrat

A few readers wonder why occasionally Bonddad and I wrote posts excoriating "Doomers." Bonddad usually deletes cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ridiculous stuff before I see it, although personally I think cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 proprietor of this blog should save it at treat you all to a "Tauntapalooza" so you can read some of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "plaudits" we get. Nevercá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365less, some of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stuff I do see and usually I just chuckle.

Here's one that came over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 transom last week:
Obviously Gov. Schwarzenegger does not read Bonddad. He explained that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 significant economic pain accruing to working class people resulting from his state budget was due to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 “sour economy” and he went on to compare California to Greece.

If he were a regular reader of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 “chicken in every pot” Bonddad blog he would know that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 recession is over, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy is growing and California’s budget problems are ‘lagging indicators’.

Don’t you just hate uninformed politicians?
{sigh} So much ignorance and lack of reading comprehension all packed tightly into 4 little sentences. I wonder if it takes practice, or whecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r it just comes naturally?

To begin with, of course, our Doomish visitor never bocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365red to read Happy Days are not Here Again. But, hey, why let a little thing like someone's actual positions get in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 way of a misinformed insult.

Our correspondent also flunks out in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 tax receipt department. I've been warning that Mish unintentionally bottom-ticked tax revenues, and last week
The Liscio Report, a newsletter that tracks state tax revenues, says 94% of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 states that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Liscio report tracks saw sales tax revenue increase in April from April 2009. That's up from just 18% of states in March.

The average gain is around 2.5%, adjusted for population....

What that means is that March was a good month because sales-tax revenue in any given month reflects activity of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 month before.
For cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 math impaired, 94% of 50 is 47 states, meaning only 3 states had YoY shortfalls in April. And California wasn't one of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m. According to California Comptroller John Chiang:
Compared to April 2009, General Fund revenue in April 2010 was up $142 million (1.4%). The total for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 three largest taxes was above 2009 levels by $150 million (1.6%). This increase was driven by sales taxes that were $450 million higher (103.2%) than last year. However, corporate taxes were down by $115 million (-7.6%), and personal income taxes came in slightly below last April by $186 million (-2.5%)T
Since California's revenues actually went UP, what was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 problem? Mr. Chiang continues:
Compared to estimates from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 2010-11 Governor’s Budget, total General Fund revenues in April were $3.6 billion lower (-26.4%) than expected. Personal income taxes were well below expectations by $3.1 billion (-30.0%), and corporate tax revenues came in below projections by $541 million (-28.1%). Sales tax revenues were $123 million better (16.1%) than anticipated.
In ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r words, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 problem isn't actual tax collections, which were up -- and in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 case of sales tax receipts, have been up YoY for 4 months in a row. No, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 problem in California is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pie-in-cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365-sky budget projections set by Der Gubernator. Surprise, surprise.

But isn't cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fact that income tax receipts came in light in April a clincher for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Doomer? Ummm, no. Over to you, Prof. Krugman:
I’ve been hearing some muttering about cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 April tax receipts, which are well below those of a year ago. Doesn’t that mean that all hopes of recovery, eicá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy or in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 budget, should be abandoned?

No.

Read cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 CBO’s Monthly Budget Review (pdf) for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 lowdown. Basically, April non-withheld income tax payments were way down — because those payments reflect 2009 income, which was way below 2008. But those tax receipts that reflect cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 current state of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy — payroll, withheld income, and corporate — are all rising.
Now, I don't want to sound callous to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 uncounted Californians who will suffer through budget cuts that are now being proposed. But cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y aren't being proposed due to collapsing state revenues, because California's revenues have improved. They are being imposed because politicians lied last year in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir future projections.

Even more importantly, Californians have known for at least a year just how badly hamstrung cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir budgetary process is due to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 constraints imposed by a series of past Propositions, most importantly cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 infamous Proposition 13 with regard to property taxes, and mandating a 2/3 majority for any tax increases -- a majority that will never be obtained while one political party is resolutely intransigent on that issue. Yet not steps have been taken to enact a new Proposition to repeal or even just modify those constraints.

So, our misinformed Doomer should skidaddle on back to Doomerville, where he can stomp his feet in impotent rage and hold his breath till he's blue, because cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 facts sure don't support him.