Saturday, May 6, 2017

Weekly Indicators for May 1 - 5 at XE.com


 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators post is up at XE.com.

Despite some flat or faltering monthly data, we are down to only 3 negative high frequency indicators.

Friday, May 5, 2017

Just How Economically Clueless is Ed Morrissey? Pretty Darn Clueless

     Once again, ol' Ed has written about cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 jobs report.  And, as usual, he complains about cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "status quo" job growth that is unimpressive.  

Overall, this looks like pretty good news, but not spectacular and probably not a sign of a coming boom — yet, anyway. Excluding cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 big miss in March, it’s cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 weakest report in 2017 by a slight amount, and not a large amount over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 maintenance rate for population growth (~125-150K). It’s certainly better than last month, and better than cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last quarter of 2016, but it’s not gangbusters

But that's not what cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 averages say:



The chart above shows cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 average 3, 6 and 12 month rate of change in total establishment jobs.  The current pace has gone on longer than cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bush expansion (which I'm sure Ed argued was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 greatest thing since sliced bread) while maintaining a similar pace.  The current expansion's levels are slightly below cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pace of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 previous 2 expansion.   

So, we know  (once again) that Ed really doesn't know much about economics.  But that wont' stop him from writing about. 







Scenes from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 employment report


 - by New Deal democrat

As I described in my detailed post on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 April jobs report, below, almost everything moved in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 right direction, and significantly so.  Let me lay out a few graphs to show cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 longer-term stronger and weaker points.

In cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 good news department, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U6 underemployment rate has been falling at a good clip in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last few months, and at 8.6%, is about 0.6% from representing a reasonably "full" employment situation:


Part of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U6 calculation is those employed part time for economic reasons.  This isn't down to normal yet, but continues to make good progress:



What is particularly good news is that both cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U3 and U6 un- and under-employment rates are falling, even though people in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 prime working age demographic are coming off cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sidelines in substantial numbers:



The only ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r times in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last 30 years cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re has been a 1%+ increase in prime age labor force participation (red line above) were 1988 and 1995.

This *relatively* stout increase in participation is probably an important reason why nominal YoY wage gains for nonsupervisory workers have stalled:



Finally, we still have about 1 million or more people who aren't even bocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ring to look for work, but would like a job now:



This equates to roughly 0.7% of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 prime age population.

In sum, we still need to move this +0.7% off cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sidelines and into actual employment, and also add anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r +0.6% or so from underemployment to complete employment before we can say that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy is operating at "full employment." And we are almost 8 years out from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 beginning of this expansion, and probably a lot closer to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 beginning of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next downturn.  This is simply not an economy that in secular terms is working for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 average American.

April jobs report: a blowout -- except (sigh) for wages


- by New Deal democrat

HEADLINES:
  • +211,000 jobs added
  • U3 unemployment rate down -0.1% from 4.5% to 4.4%
  • U6 underemployment rate down 0.3% from 8.9% to 8.6%
Here are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 headlines on wages and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 chronic heightened underemployment:

Wages and participation rates
  • Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now:  down -74,000 from 5.781 million to 5.707 million   
  • Part time for economic reasons: down -281,000 from 5.553 million to 5.272 million
  • Employment/population ratio ages 25-54: up +0.1% from 78.5% to 78.6%
  • Average Weekly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: up $.06 from $21.90 to $21.96,  up +2.3% YoY.  (Note: you may be reading different information about wages elsewhere. They are citing average wages for all private workers. I use wages for nonsupervisory personnel, to come closer to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 situation for ordinary workers.)
Holding Trump accountable on manufacturing and mining jobs

Trump specifically campaigned on bringing back manufacturing and mining jobs.  Is he keeping this promise? 

  • Manufacturing jobs rose by +6,000 vs. cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last severn years of Obama's presidency in which an average of 10,300 manufacturing jobs were added each month.   
  • Coal mining jobs rose by +200 vs. cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last severn years of Obama's presidency in which an average of -300 jobs were lost each month
  February was revised upward by +13,000. March was revised downward by -19,000, for a net change of -6,000.  

The more leading numbers in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 report tell us about where cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy is likely to be a few months from now. These were positive with one exception.
  • cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 average manufacturing workweek rose +0.1 from 40.6 hours to 40.7 hours.  This is one of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 10 components of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 LEI.
  •  
  • construction jobs increased by +5,000. YoY construction jobs are up +173,000.  
  • temporary jobs increased by +5,800.

  • cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less increased by +1,000 from 2,334,000 to 2,335,000.  The post-recession low was set nearly 18 months ago at 2,095,000.
Ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r important coincident indicators help  us paint a more complete picture of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 present:
  • Overtime fell -0.1 from 3.3 to 3.2 hours.
  • Professional and business employment (generally higher- paying jobs) increased by +39,000 and is up +612,000 YoY.

  • cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 index of aggregate hours worked in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy rose by 0.5 from 106.3 to 106.8 
  •  cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 index of aggregate payrolls rose by +0.7 from 132.8 to 133.7 . 
Ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r news included:         
  • cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 alternate jobs number contained  in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 more volatile household survey increased by   +156,000 jobs.  This represents an increase of 2,128,000  jobs YoY vs. 2,237,000 in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 establishment survey.    
  •     
  • Government jobs rose by +17,00.     
  • cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 overall employment to population ratio for all ages 16 and up rose +0.1% from  60.1% to 60.2 m/m  and is  up +0.5% Yo Y.     
  • The  labor force participation rate fell -0.1% m/m and is up +0.1% YoY from 62.8% to 62.9%.     
 SUMMARY  

This was an excellent report in almost all respects. Not only were cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 headlines very positive, but so were most of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 internals. Hours rose, aggregate payrolls rose, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 employment to population ratio continue to rise as well. People are coming off cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sides maybe not in droves but pretty vigorously -- and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are finding jobs. Involuntary part-time employment is declining sharply.

There were a few pockets of softness, in short-duration employment, which hasn't made a new low in 18 months, and those outside of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 labor force but who want a job, which also hasn't made meaningful progress in nearly 4 years (although recently it has declined sharply as well). The labor force participation rate also declined this month.
The ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r soft spot remains wages, which are only up +2.3% in nominal terms for nonsupervisory workers. This is probably in part due to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 YoY increase in prime age participation (up over 1% from ages 25-54 in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last year), which means more competition for available jobs.

So, while this month is very good news, we are still at least 0.5%, and probably more like 1%, from reasonably "full" employment, and wages are still really soft. I will repeat, as I do every month now, that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 biggest danger I see in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next downturn, whenever it hits, is that we have cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first actual wage deflation since cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 1930s.
  
Postscript: Is this employment report an affirmation of Trump and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 GOP? Yes -- if by that you mean that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y haven't really done anything to affect cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy as of yet, and so it continues on autopilot.

Thursday, May 4, 2017

Holding Trump to account on manufacturing and mining jobs: setting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 benchmarks


 - by New Deal democrat

Tomorrow is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 April employment report, and at this point we can begin to hold Trump and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 GOP Congress at least somewhat (but not fully for about 3-6 more months) accountable for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 trend. For example, by this point 8 years ago, Obama and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Democratic Congress had passed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stimulus program, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 hemorrhaging of jobs, while continuing, gradually lessened before completely turning around 9 months later.

On cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 campaign trail last year, Trump made some pretty specific promises to bring back both manufacturing and mining jobs. Those promises were a major part of his economic appeal to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 working class. So, beginning tomorrow, it's time to start holding him to account.

Today let's set cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 benchmarks. As noted above, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy finally started to add jobs at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 beginning of 2010. So let's calculate how many jobs were gained or lost in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Obama recovery, as a monthly average, for those 7 years.

Here is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Obama record on manufacturing jobs annually beginning in 2010:



In December 2009, 11.475 million people were employed in manufacturing.  eighty-four months later, in December 2016, 12.343 million people were, for a gain of 868,000, or 10,300 a month.

Now here his cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Obama record on coal mining jobs annually beginning in 2010:



In December 2009, 77,700 people were employed in coal mining. After rising to almost 90,000, by December 2016, only 49,700 people were so employed, for a loss of -28,000, or -300 a month.

For Trump to do better than Obama, he needs to add 11,000 manufacturing jobs a month, and simply not lose any jobs in coal mining.

The accounting starts tomorrow.

Wednesday, May 3, 2017

Monthly update on housing and cars


 - by New Deal democrat

First of all, sorry for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 lack of posting this week. Occasionally real life intrudes, and so it did for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last few days, demanding my full-time (and more!) attention. Posting should return to nearly normal.

If cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 consumer economy were really in trouble, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first two places I would expect to see that manifesting is in housing and cars.  Now that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest monthly results have been reported, we have an updated look.

This post is up at XE.com.