Saturday, June 9, 2018

The disastrous German Emperor who was a doppelganger to Donald Trump: Kaiser Wilhelm


 - by New Deal democrat

You know cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 drill. It's Sunday, so I write about whatever else is on my mind.

I am presently reading Miranda Carter's "George, Nicholas, and Wilhelm," her 2009 biography of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 three grandchildren of Queen Victoria who were respectively, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 King of England, Tsar of Russia, and Kaiser of Germany at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 time of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 outbreak of World War 1.

I was gobsmacked by her portrait of of Kaiser Wilhelm's character, for it is a virtually identical doppelganger to that of Donald Trump.

The best way to show that is via a few excerpts, presented with no embellishment.

First, a look at his "stable genius":

"[Wilhelm] liked to think of himself as anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r Frederick cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Great: politician, soldier, strategist, philosopher, cultural arbiter .... [But s]ome of those who had known him as a prince, however, worried a little about what kind of king he would make.... "He thinks he understands _everything_, even shipbuilding." Bismarck [ ] muttered about Wilhelm's inflated opinion of his own abilities ... and his minuscule attention span: he would "take a little peek ... learn nothing thoroughly and end up believing he knew everything." "

(pp. 75-76)


"Wilhelm considered himself an expert on many things and was not shy about saying so. In later years, he would personally inform cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Norwegian composer Edward Grieg that he was conducting Peer Gynt all wrong; tell Richard Strauss that modern composition was "detestable" and he was "one of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 worst"; and, against cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 wishes of its judges, withdraw cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Schiller Prize from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Nobel Prize-winning German dramatist Gerhart Hauptmann, whose downbeat Ibsen-esque social realism he didn't like.

"[After, In 1889 in an attempt to smooth over some family difficulties, Queen Victoria had awarded Wilhelm an honorary admiralty of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Royal Navy,] Wilhelm fell upon his new title as if nothing had ever given him so much pleasure in his whole life..... Even Phillip zu Eulenburg noted disappointedly that he was "like a child over it [cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 British naval uniform]." Wilhelm told Herbert von Bismarck that his British naval title meant that "he would have cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 right as admiral of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Fleet, to have a say in English naval affairs and to give cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Queen his expert advice... [He] was perfectly serious in what he said."
"...[Later that year,] Wilhelm put on his admiral's uniform, flew cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pennant of a British navy admiral, and invited himself -- as a real admiral would -- to inspect cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 British squadron anchored [off cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Greek coast].... In December, he sent [Victoria] a plan for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reorganization of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Royal Navy.... In 1891 he sent more "humble suggestions...." "

(pp. 90-93)

On his complete inability to maintain atttention, and wild vacillations:

"Wilhelm appeared unable to distinguish cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 trivial from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 important -- he'd spend hours looking at photographs of warships or moving cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 position of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 smoke stacks on a new cruiser, racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r than read government reports.... Worse, he was an appalling vacillator, changing his mind -- he was often influenced by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last person he'd talked to, and constantly in quest of popularity -- with such frequency that it drove his ministers mad and made cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 government look irresolute and confused. Chancellor Captivi  ... observed wearily that "he often contradicted his official announcements and misunderstandings arose in consequence." His  colleague Marschall, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 foreign minister, was more forthright: "It is unendurable. Today one thing and tomorrow cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next and after a few days something completely different."

"Then cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re was his habit of making sudden rogue interventions, getting overexcited during speeches and announcing a new law that completely contradicted agreed government policy, or writing to foreign monarchs without telling cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Foreign Office, or appointing someone completely inappropriate to a government position.... He was quick to resent anyone he felt wasn't sufficiently supportive."

(pp. 132-33) 

On his existing in a completely different mental universe:

"...[T]he young kaiser [ ] showed not only an ability to flatly deny something that everyone else knew to be true, but a determination to see cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r too much cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 way he wanted it to be...."

On his praeternatural ability to detect personal vulnerabilities:

"[Wilhelm] had an odd ability to home in on people's preoccupations and vulnerabilities.... There were moments when Wilhelm's probings hit a nerve ...."
  
(p. 151)

On his residing in a media bubble:

".... The truth was that, having laid claim to being Germany's savior and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 most brilliant man in Europe, Wilhelm had proved quite unable to live up to his promise .... Although he'd told Captivi that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 chancellor's job was just a temporary role until he himself was ready to take cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reins of government, he had no staying power at all.  "Distractions," Waldersee had observed increasingly bitterly, " ... are everything to him ... He reads very little apart from newspaper cuttings, hardly writes anything himself ... and considers those talks best which are quickly over and done with." Wilhelm was all front. He'd filled his first years as kaiser with a round of pageants, processions, parades and elaborate memorials .... "

(pp.132-33)

Carter's summary is that:

"Wilhelm manifested many symptoms of "narcissistic personality disorder": arrogance, grandiose self-importance, a mammoth sense of entitlement, fantasies about unlimited success and power; a belief in  his own uniqueness and brilliance; a need for endless admiration and reinforcement and a hatred of criticism; proneness to envy; a tendency to regard ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r people as purely instrumental -- in terms of what cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y could do for him, along with a dispiriting lack of empathy."

(p. 93) 

That cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 personalities of Kaiser Wilhelm and Donald Trump are so nearly identical is shocking.

As it turns out, moreover, I'm not cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 only one who has noticed this identity.
In March of last year, David E. Banks wrote in The Independent cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 two's similarities. Last October, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 magazine Foreign Policy noted that "The Donald Trump - Kaiser Wilhelm Parallels are Getting Scary."  Also last October, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Irish Times published .cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 following:
One of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 foremost historians on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first World War war has compared US President Donald Trump to Kaiser Wilhelm II. 
Professor Margaret MacMillan, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 author of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bestselling book The War That Ended Peace, said Mr Trump shares many of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 character traits of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Kaiser who led Germany into cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first World War.  
She describe those traits as giving cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 impression of being “reckless, inconsistent  and belligerent”
Trump, racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r like Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany, is vain and has to be cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 centre of  atte ntion. They both admire cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 military tremendously. There are a lot of parallels.
 And finally, just this past week, Miranda Carter herself, excerpting some of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same quotes from her book that I have above, wrote in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 New Yorker  "What Happens when a Bad-Tempered Distractible Doofus runs an Empire?"

Perhaps cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 two most depressing takeaways from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se comparisons is how Carter notes that ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r countries found it very easy to manipulate cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Kaiser to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir own advantage; and Prof. MacMillan's opinion that “He has done something to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 US which will take a long time, if ever, to recover from.” 

It would all be just rueful cynicism if Kaiser Wilhelm's bombastic aggressive narcissism hadn't been so pivotal to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 miscalculations which exploded into World War.

Weekly Indicators for June 4 - 8 at XE.com


 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators post is up at XE.com.

While cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re were no big changes, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 overall cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365me of slow deceleration continues.

Thursday, June 7, 2018

Gimme credit update: less demand, tightness for consumers


 - by New Deal democrat

I take a more in-depth look at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 provision of credit over at XE.com.

While credit is plentiful for producers, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 situation looks tighter for consumers.

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Brief JOLTS update


 - by New Deal democrat

I'm still traveling, so this will be a quick update.

In re yesterday's JOLTS report, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 main take seems to be that job openings were higher than cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 total number of unemployed, so presumably cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y could all be hired and we'd have actual full employment next month, right?

I don't think so. Month after month, hires have totaled considerably fewer than openings for several years. If full employment were so close, why wouldn't hires be catching up?  And every month, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re are new layoffs, quits, and ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r separations, all of whom (except for those who retire) are available to fill those job openings.

In any event, let me focus on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 simple metric of "hiring leads firing." Here's cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 long term relationship since 2000, quarterly through cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of March:



No sign yet of eicá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r turning down, although both may be plateauing.

In cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 2000s business cycle, hires YoY turned down well in advance of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 recession. That isn't cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 case now:



so cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re's no danger sign of any oncoming economic downturn in this month's report.

Here is a close-up of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last several years, monthly, of hiring vs. separations:



The YoY comparisons will get more challenging starting next month, as hires have been within a 2% range since last May, and have not made a new high since last October.

Since we are late in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cycle, my anticipation is that we will indeed see negative YoY readings on hiring at some point in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 second half of this year, but we'll see.

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

Wage growth: is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 dam finally breaking?

 - by New Deal democrat

[Apologies for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 light posting: I've been traveling, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re isn't a lot of news this week.]

A couple of months ago I wrote that raising wages may have become a "taboo," i.e., that in some cases employers may be refusing to raising wages, even though it may be costing his money. One of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 items I relied upon was from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 NFIB, as small business owners presumably are not "monopsonies." As of February, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last time I had data, small business owners were complaining of inability to fill positions, but were not raising wages.

Over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last three months, that may have changed, as revealed in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 NIFB survey from May. Let's compare hiring in small business through February:


and now through May:



In cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last three months, employment growth per firm has finally broken out to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 upside.

Meanwhile, unfilled job openings in small businesses, which have been soaring for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last five quarters (red dots, blue dot at end is for month of May):




are finally giving rise to actual wage increases over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last three months (red dots in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 below graph are monthly):



This is supportive of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 YoY% growth in average wages for nonsupervisory workers as of last week's employment report for May:



As I noted cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n, it looks like wage growth for ordinary workers may finally be starting to accelerate.

While it seems crystal clear that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 tax cuts for large businesses are just going into stock buybacks, it is certainly possible that small businesses are using some of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir extra cash to increase pay for new workers.

If cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 behavioral paradigm I hypocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365sized -- that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 taboo against raising wages has been undergoing an extinction burst -- cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 most recent data from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 NFIB supports that employers are finally conceding that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Great Recession-era behavior of freezing wages is no longer successful.