Wednesday, September 1, 2010

The Panic of Correlation

Monster traffic issues getting home today. On top of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "students move in to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 city" seasonal distortion of traffic data for September's first week, a huge truck also caught on fire on a highway I use to get home! How is that for a double header? After an annoying ride home I thought it best to relax and write a blog along with a cool brew or two. Spellcheck is a good thing.

Apple Shows New Products
A friend of mine thinks I am an Apple (AAPL) hater because I find it comical that a company that makes little cheapo electronic gadgets will be bigger in market cap cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n US GDP in a few years time. Call me crazy. As far as AAPL stuff goes, I have no idea. I have a PC that was a cheap buy and with it I write this blog, read Wikipedia endlessly, and watch old fights on YouTube. How much do I need for that?

Anyways, today Apple had a big unveil show and supplied magnifying glasses to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 audience so cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y could see cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next generation of AAPL products.

Think AAPL products but smaller. The newest item was a tiny TV that you can watch movies and TV on. Wow, what a breakthrough. I think I heard of this before:

Ok, I am kidding! The new AAPL TV is HD and streams stuff you can rent if you are near an internet connection. This will come in super handy when you are at home and want to watch HD movies but do not want to be bocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365red going to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 living room to watch cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 monster HD TV you have with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 surround sound and 20 foot picture because it reminds you of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 HELOC you blew to buy it all. The new mini TV only costs $99! No problem!:

There was ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r stuff but cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pictures were too small to see much. When will cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Apple Femto line of products come out? I could think of better uses for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 billions in revenue cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se time wasting, eye sight killing things will generate but at least cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y all have touch screens.

Disclosure: No position in AAPL and only picking on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y were in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 news; my grind is about cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 general love affair with silly toys in general.

Fall Mortgage Mega Refinance Plan Rumor?
All rumors for now, or early leaks, depending how you see it. Number 5 on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Yahoo search this morning was "Mortgage Modification" for what it's worth:

Which was beating "Apple Rumors" at number 9!

My Kind of Article
I have to admit I was having a great time reading this article this morning:
A Termite-Riddled House: Treasury Bonds
Now cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 title suggests cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 whole thing is about cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 treasuries market, but really cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is much more. What made is super special to me was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 all out assault on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) which is something I really cannot stand as it requires a certain distance from any real world to make it believable. Anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r classroom book cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365orem which if true would have ushered in an unending era of full blown prosperity cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world over by now had it any merit. It does not. On Zero Hedge, guest writer Gonzalo Lira minces no words and pulls no punches when he writes:
I think this MMT cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ory is full of shit, propagated by fucking idiots.

MMT is just a clever way to justify insurmountable levels of fiscal debt—it’s a rationalization of this insurmountable debt, using a veneer of economic terminology to cloak cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 purveyors’ political ideology of spend!-spend!-spend!-your way out of a recession or depression: In ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r words, Keynesianism-redux. Keynesianism on steroids—Keynesianism gone fucking in-sane.
Hard to beat that!
The whole thing is well worth a read, even on a mini screen. Heck, I even printed it out.

The Panic of Correlation
A monster move up in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 markets today, and it was all over in about an hour. Get cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 job done and go home early, words to live by in my book!

I am not even going to talk about an ISM that at any point is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 history of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world was terrible, it managed to beat "expectations" and many ascribed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 whole rally to that alone. Why not just "expect" next time cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ISM to be 10, have it print 55 and declare recovery victory? At that beat markets should be at old all time highs and all would be well. Via Pragmatic Capitalism, who checked out a Credit Suisse presentation we have this graph that shows how this recovery fits many ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs from history ISM wise:

The headline of "Markets Cheer 16 More Months of Flat ISM Rating and Rise 3%" just does not have a real ring to it. Is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market correctly priced for 16 months of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ISM print being 55-59? It must be, it is forward looking after all. (SNARK on high)

The ADP jobs number was bad, but who needs jobs when manufacturing is making more stuff for people to buy?

I was looking for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "what" this morning, as in what would have caused this panic buying? Clusterstock had cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 best answer:
Obama's September Surprise: A Shock Reversal On Tax Cuts?
Now we have something! As cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 article reads (which refers back to Reuters):
If it’s a one-year extension of all expiring tax provisions (including extenders), it would be a very smart political move for him.

He would triangulate his base and appeal to swing indies. It also undercuts one of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 main GOP arguments. The stock market would surge. It’s a total no-brainer, unless you are just that ideologically-addled not to do it.
No we have something!

A minuscule ISM beat was not cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reason for a ramp up in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 markets so just stop trying on that line. A extension of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "Bush" tax cuts, now that has some teeth.

There were plenty of market player friendly tax breaks that were set to expire, as well as many fat cat friendly ones. This was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reason that almost cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 entire move up happened at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ring of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bell. This also fits nicely with what I wrote last night about serious efforts for give aways to commence right at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 get go in September.

As an aside, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 President would be risking whatever credibility he has left with a move like this. After railing against Bush tax cuts as "benefiting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 top 1% of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 people and helping no one" it's a long road back to "extending cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se tax cuts will help cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy". I am not trying to make political points here, it is just hard to square. That said Economic Disconnect is for any and all tax cuts where ever cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y may be! How about all of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m? Ok, I will settle for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 15% flat tax and I am even open to a VAT tax if you can believe that! See, I fit no pattern.

In cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end I feel more confident than ever in my words last night. It has already begun. With asset classes now correlated almost 100% every day is a move up or down and not much in between. Panic buying was seen today. Who knows what tomorrow brings. What should be clear is if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mere mention in a small WSJ piece gets rebounded on Reuters which makes Clusterstock and this moves markets 3%, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 situation is a powder keg. That swings both ways in case you did not figure that out.

I could be wrong; maybe cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 better ISM (better than all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 regional ones, that's for sure!) was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 real reason. Maybe cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 old "oversold" meme came out to play. Maybe cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re was no reason, it was just Wednesday. I will stick to my call on this one. I should think we will not have to wait long to find out.

Have a good night.

7 comments:

Stagflationary Mark said...

Monster traffic issues getting home today.

Check out what's going on in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Seattle area today.

Fleeing armed suspect completely shuts down I-5

Check out cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pictures.

Oh, and let's not forget this event moments earlier.

Man falls to death from Pine I-5 overpass

Traffic in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 area is backed up in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 three right lanes of northbound I-5 and Metro buses are being re-routed to surface streets.

There appears to be an event happening.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Ok, that has me beat by a long shot! Dang, tell me you were not in that mess, or cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 one responsible....HA!

watchtower said...

"Green Acres is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 place to be, farm living is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 life for me"

: )

I did get caught behind a tractor pulling a bush-hog on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 county highway yesterday though, hee hee.

EconomicDisconnect said...

I just see rib BBQ

Jeff said...

Get

Nice

Missed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 tax chatter today. That could have triggered some buying.

I think most of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 action is now in bonds. I spoke to my credit trader buddy today. I responded to your post with his talking points.

They sound much like ours.

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

Not in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mess. Not responsible for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mess. Had none of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mess fall on me from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sky. Never left cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 house. Girlfriend never left cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 house. Wasn't shot at. Did not have car hijacked. Did not have car wrecked. It's been a good day, lol.

Perhaps bonds were responsible!

sedintary state said...

How about that Verison ad showing a woman in some public place staring into cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 thing (cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir version of this).

If you didn't know she was watching tv you'd think she was stoned on heroin. Just what we need, more stoned sheep.