Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Durable Goods and GDP / Equity Market Collapse

There have been a number of things pointed at to explain today's sell-off, one being Goldman Sachs reduced GDP forecast. I personally am in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "nothing can go up forever" / "market is overvalued" camp. BUT, here is Goldman via FT Alphaville regarding today's durable goods release:

Headline gain is in line with consensus and below our figure, but with a composition less dependent on volatile components than some (including us) had expected. Bookings for capital goods recover almost all of past two months’ setbacks. Shipments somewhat weaker, especially for nondefense capital goods, but cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y will eventually follow orders. Based on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se data and ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r recent reports, we now estimate tomorrow’s GDP to be +2.7% at an annual rate, versus +3.0% previously.
And cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 details of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 new orders portion of durable goods for September...



And year to date 2009 vs. that same time frame from 2008 which shows we can at least always count on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 war machine.



So durable goods new orders are down almost 30% over that time frame. Racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r than ask why cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market is selling off today, shouldn't we be asking why cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market is UP over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last 12 months?

Anyone think its "fundamentals" and not cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 MASSIVE liquidity injected by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Fed and no willingness by economic players [i.e. banks / lendees] to put that liquidity to actual use due to immense imbalances that NEED to play out [indebted consumers, asset writedowns, etc...], thus cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 liquidity is just sloshing into financial assets?

Source: Census

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