Monday, November 8, 2010

Consumers Getting Responsible?

The NY Fed (hat tip Calculated Risk) details that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 decline in consumer credit outstanding is due in large part to consumer retrenchment and not just outright default.

Excluding cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 effects of defaults and charge-offs, available data show that non-mortgage debt fell for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first time since at least 2000. Also, net mortgage debt paydowns, which began in 2008, reached nearly $140 billion by year end 2009. These unique findings suggest that consumers have been actively reducing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir debts, and not just by defaulting.

“Consumer debt is declining but only part of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reduction is attributable to defaults and charge-offs,” said Donghoon Lee, senior economist in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Research and Statistics Group at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 New York Fed. “Americans are borrowing less and paying off more debt than in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 recent past. This change, which we continue to study carefully, can be a result of both tightening credit standards and voluntary changes in saving behavior.”

While cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 chart below shows cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cumulative pullback in consumer credit outstanding, it is important to note that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 total amount (revolving plus non-revolving) flipped positive for September (noise or a bottom?).



Source: Federal Reserve

3 comments:

  1. I read from comments elsewhere that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 September blip could be student loan origination from ever rising tuition. Also, car sales are better than last year.

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  2. I saw tyhat mentioned too Anon, should be easy to show graphicly unless it was a reclassification deal.

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  3. I don't believe it was student loans. Past Septembers do not show cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same pattern.

    Most categories of non-revolving debt fell, but this was more than offset by a rise of $27 billion in one small corner -- non-revolving debt held by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 federal government. I would guess, actually, that this was due to some accounting anomaly. Perhaps cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 gov accounts for some purchases a month ahead of when cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 selling banks account for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m?

    Anyway, given that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rise is in such a narrow category, I doubt very much it means consumer deleveraging is over.

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