Sunday, April 28, 2013

Einstein Rebuked

Interesting take on a cliche:
I once read that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 definition of insanity is doing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same thing over and over and expecting different results. I fundamentally disagree with this idea. I think that doing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same thing over and over and expecting different results is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 definition of hope. ~Debbie Millman
As someone who does cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same thing most days, often coming up with nothing, I find this interpretation a real breakthrough.
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I've been reading a lot of Jaak Panksepp who studies 'affective neuroscience', cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 biology of emotions like rage, fear, lust, care, panic, grief, and play.  He's famous for documenting when rats laugh via  inaudible chirps that correspond to tickling and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 appropriate brain scan signatures. Lots of mammals have cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same emotions humans do, which should come as no surprise to dog owners. He notes that he purpose of play is to takes us to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 point of bad things happening, which explains why my kids always seem to end play with someone crying. He sees an instinct for seeking social interaction that turns on once cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stronger affects (fear, lust, rage) as well as hunger are in check. It's useful to have an instinct to seek novelty and company, and it appears this is hard-wired.  If you take too much opiates, or are autistic, this instinct is stifled.
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As for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Rienhart and Rogoff brouhaha, I don't see cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 big deal given our total debt-to-GDP ratio is like 500% if you include Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The fact that 90% isn't a hard tipping point is irrelevant, we are way past that. Furcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r, given we have been running a Federal deficit above 5% of GDP since 2009 every year, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 idea that this R and R research has caused great austerity implies a novel definition of austerity.
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I'm sympacá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365tic to Barry Schwartz's admonition that we should satisfice more as a rule: optimizing too much leads to feeling bad about alternatives that are pretty similar. A lot in life is random, so if in picking a college or career you keep wondering 'what if?' you will be less happy and it's unhelpful because generally things you chose among were pretty similar. I think it's a very interesting question how and when to constrain choices you present ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs: too much choice is onerous, but more choice can better fit someone's unknown preferences. Unfortunately, those skeptical of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market seem drawn to think regulation could be of big help here; I think it's far better to leave such choices to those with skin in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 game and a knowledge of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 customers.  That is, bureaucrats will often think more than 3 of something cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y don't care about is enough, because for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m it is, but that's a very silly inference. The Bloggingheads discussion is below:

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Debbie Milman has nothing on Einstein.

Jack said...

Also, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is no real evidence that Einstein ever said that.

People like to think he did, since we love cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 idea that brilliant people hand out folksy wisdom (cf: Buffett), but it's very likely a misattribution.

Even worse, it's almost certainly a platitude invented and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n misattributed by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 slimeball stealth-Christians at Narcotics Anonymous.

Unanimous said...

If Rienhart and Rogoff included Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid (and nearest international equivalents) in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir definition of government debt cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y would have come up with a much higher tipping point than 90%. You've got to compare like with like, and if you switch definitions mid argument you will get silly results.

But, anyway cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is no tipping point on value of debt. Most western governments that weren't wiped out by a war in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last 200 years have periods in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir history when cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir debts went over 150% of GDP and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n recovered over subsequent decades without any catastrophy. Government debts are private assets, government deficits increase private profits and income, and private profits and income pay off government debts through taxes.

Of course governments that spend badly and make particularly stupid rules get into trouble and often end up not paying cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir debts, but that's a different issue. And, populations with an increasing proportion of people over 55 seem to have trouble growing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir GDP, and seem to be running up debts, but it's not clear yet how that situation tends to end.

JWO said...

Having dealt with truly insane people, I hate that quote. Insane is when you loose your grip on reality and see and hear things that do not exist, that definition is closer to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 truth.

Anonymous said...

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