Zowie!
Macro Man tips his hat to Merv cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Swerve and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Your author has been critical of Mr. King in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past, but is pleased to see that Merv has belatedly seen cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 light; namely, that policy easing is required to prevent depression, not recession.
Despite cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fact that Macro Man's indicator suggested that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 BOE should ease dramatically, he was skeptical; so much so that he had put on some small bets on disappointment, per yesterday's post. Still, it's a case of better late than never when it comes to grasping reality, and it seems as if Merv and co. have finally realized that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is no demand-driven inflation pressure in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 UK economy.
On cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r hand, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 smuggest man in finance saw no need for extraordinary measures; unsurprising, really, given that a) he doesn't believe that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is any sort of credit crisis in Europe, and b) he still appears to inhabit a bubble where 320 million people think he's a diamond geezer. Most punters that Macro Man knows would disagree on both counts.
In any event, UK base rates are now below Bundesbank rates for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first time since 1993- your author's first year in financial markets. Perhaps it's a coincidence that UK growth was double that of Germany over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ensuing five years....cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n again, perhaps it isn't.
Speaking of growth (or lack cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365reof), today is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest iteration of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 statistical folly that is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 US employment report. After a skein of truly putrid employment indicators, including Wednesday's ADP report, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 street is probably expecting a decline of 200k or more in payrolls, well under cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 supposed consensus of a 65k loss.
As always, Macro Man is focusing on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 less noisy unemployment rate; his favourite "tell" on that is suggesting that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rate will soon be knocking on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 door off 7%, well below cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest reading of 6.1%.
None of this is good news for risk assets, of course. Macro Man was frankly bemused to see Eurostoxx futures down some 8.5% on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 day by yesterday's NY close. At this juncture Macro Man has tilted his book very slightly towards a "risk off" regime, though he could easily tilt back towards "risk on" should circumstances warrant.
Perhaps more importantly, he continues to run a relatively low risk profile- only 20% of max. Given cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Brownian motion of most asset market prices this week, he is content to run mostly slow-burn, medium-term macro trades; trying to trade cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 noise will only result in him getting his hat, let alone his face, ripped off.
Macro Man tips his hat to Merv cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Swerve and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Your author has been critical of Mr. King in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past, but is pleased to see that Merv has belatedly seen cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 light; namely, that policy easing is required to prevent depression, not recession.
Despite cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fact that Macro Man's indicator suggested that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 BOE should ease dramatically, he was skeptical; so much so that he had put on some small bets on disappointment, per yesterday's post. Still, it's a case of better late than never when it comes to grasping reality, and it seems as if Merv and co. have finally realized that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is no demand-driven inflation pressure in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 UK economy.
On cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r hand, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 smuggest man in finance saw no need for extraordinary measures; unsurprising, really, given that a) he doesn't believe that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is any sort of credit crisis in Europe, and b) he still appears to inhabit a bubble where 320 million people think he's a diamond geezer. Most punters that Macro Man knows would disagree on both counts.In any event, UK base rates are now below Bundesbank rates for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first time since 1993- your author's first year in financial markets. Perhaps it's a coincidence that UK growth was double that of Germany over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ensuing five years....cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n again, perhaps it isn't.
Speaking of growth (or lack cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365reof), today is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest iteration of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 statistical folly that is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 US employment report. After a skein of truly putrid employment indicators, including Wednesday's ADP report, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 street is probably expecting a decline of 200k or more in payrolls, well under cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 supposed consensus of a 65k loss.As always, Macro Man is focusing on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 less noisy unemployment rate; his favourite "tell" on that is suggesting that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rate will soon be knocking on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 door off 7%, well below cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest reading of 6.1%.
None of this is good news for risk assets, of course. Macro Man was frankly bemused to see Eurostoxx futures down some 8.5% on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 day by yesterday's NY close. At this juncture Macro Man has tilted his book very slightly towards a "risk off" regime, though he could easily tilt back towards "risk on" should circumstances warrant.Perhaps more importantly, he continues to run a relatively low risk profile- only 20% of max. Given cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Brownian motion of most asset market prices this week, he is content to run mostly slow-burn, medium-term macro trades; trying to trade cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 noise will only result in him getting his hat, let alone his face, ripped off.
16 comments
Click here for commentsBlog question:-
ReplyWhat do MM and Mr Obama have in common ?
They are both West Ham fans .....
---------------------------------
West Ham are to invite US President-elect Barack Obama to watch a game at Upton Park when he next visits cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 UK.
Obama saw West Ham play during a visit to see his half-sister Auma in 2003.
--------------------------------
MM, you could end up sitting next to him and chat economics during half-time :-)
Oh yes, I know! As I said to our resident Arsenal supporter: "We've got Obama and you've got Osama!"
ReplyIn any event, UK base rates are now below Bundesbank rates for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first time since 1993- your author's first year in financial markets. Perhaps it's a coincidence that UK growth was double that of Germany over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ensuing five years....cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n again, perhaps it isn't.
ReplyJust one small issue MacroMan, with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 comparation between cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 UK growth and German growth in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 early 90s: East Germany Reunification (1990) costs...
The UK didn't have to absorb a former communist country, who was, in pratical terms, bankrupt.
So, of course cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 UK grew more in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 early 90s, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n Germany!
I can't see how forcing credit to people drowning in debt and also destroying a currency can be cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 right thing...
ReplyOh, and you might want to read this:
Next two bubbles to crash - (hyperinflation?)
Guilhermo- UK and German growth were identical in 91-92. So unification matters more in, say, 97-98 than it does immediately after?
ReplyThe main difference is that in 1991-92, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bundesbank made monetary policy for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 UK- from 93 onwards, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y didn't.
Hey Macro Man you mean that geezer that lent lend billions of cripy Euros gainst your banks mortgage craplateral?
ReplyYou are welcome to give it back early....
Re: GDP growth Germany - UK
ReplyUK: Housing bubble, building boom, hi growth.
GE: No Housing bubble, no building bomb, lower growth.
UK: Big housing bust, big GDP fall
GE: No housing bust, some GDP fall
Nov 7 (Reuters) - Ken Griffin's Citadel Investment Group is being asked by several major banks to post additional collateral to cover big losses on its investments, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 situation.
ReplyCitadel has fallen nearly 40 percent this year, prompting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 firm to hold conversations with lenders including Goldman Sachs Group Inc Deutsche Bank AG and Merrill Lynch & Co that finance its trades, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 paper said.
Citadel executives said cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 calls for more cash are a normal part of business when securities cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y hold fall in value and emphasized that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y have significant amounts of cash to satisfy cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir lenders, according to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 paper.
The executives said cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y have met all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 demands for collateral, according to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 paper.
-deac
Keynes 1 (King 3')
ReplySchumpeter 0
As for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 growth differential between GB and Deutschland cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 currency devaluation of 1992 "Black Wednesday" may have played a role in stimulating growth in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mid-to late 1990's when cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 UK was knocked out of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ERM. The pound dropped from 2.95 to 2.25 to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Deutschmark. This helped stimulate exports, tourism, competitiveness and ultimately cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 asset market. Its EURO adjusted DM rate from 2005 is about 2.85 DM to GBP.
Replywhat do you mean by jobs hard to get?
ReplyGuilhermo- UK and German growth were identical in 91-92. So unification matters more in, say, 97-98 than it does immediately after?
ReplyMacro Man, I´d say yes.
Because you shouldn´t forget cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pent-up consumer demand in former East Germany back cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n. Nicely helped by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 generous (political) exchange rate transforming worthless East German marks into Deutschmarks. A lot of savings went into new cars, consumer electronics etc.
This domestic boom for a time hid cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 true costs of reunification.
Detlef
It's ludicrous comparing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ponzi-scheme UK economy built on real estate, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sound German economy.
Replyb @3:26 PM, I totally agree, UK is having bigger and bigger problems, not even comparable to those of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 eurozone.
Macroman who likes to mock Trichet, should turn off cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bloomberg terminal and look out of his window.
Detlef- if that's cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 case, why was German growth so much stronger in 1994-98 than in 91-2?
ReplySpitz, I am looking out my window now and see beautiful countryside. You're right....cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 German economy has been a dullard for most of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 deacde, which is why ECB rates were kept low for a lengthy period (sound familiar?), spurring property bubbles (sound familiar?)in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 PIGS. Now that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bubble is burst, Trichet is still making policy for Germany.
Perhaps cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ECB should just change its name to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bundesbank, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Eurozone to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Weimar Republic, since cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bundesbank mentality is still informed by Germany's experiences of 80 years ago.
You British gentlemen like to mock "PIGS" and ECB, but this time it is all coming back to haunt you, be careful who will laugh last.
ReplyOur business is in Italy, and from what we see and what our numbers tell, we are in much better shape than UK. Our business is correlated with constructions and real estate, and we keep on working, our turnover didn't decrease much, customers keep coming, October was a good month and November begins well.
I'm sorry gentlemen, but, AFAIK, ECB policy is right even for Italy.
Oh, BTW, UK banks are too big to be saved, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are too leveraged and too big with respect to UK GDP, just like Iceland (sounds familiar?).
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/11/business/worldbusiness/11charts.html
You have a Ponzi-scheme mortgage&remortgage real-estate that is crashing, like in no ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r european country. Did you know that e.g. in Italy we can't remortgage, or you believe that all countries are like UK/USA ?
You know how ponzi-schemes end up, UK will need an hyperinflation in next years to make it through.
We don't, and I thank every day cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Deutsche Bundesbank and Germany.
Cheers.
Hi Macro-Man,
ReplyI'm emailing you in regards to a followup email I sent you a month ago in response to a partnership, have you had a chance to think about it?
If you have any questions or would more information, please advise me and we can go from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re.
Kind Regards,
Andrew Knight
Website Manager
Banking & Finance Division
Online Marketing Group (OMG)
p: (07) 3368 2666
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e: andrew.knight@omg.com.au
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