Big Trouble in Little China .. (and at least a cold in Europe)?



(The post was meant to be published yesterday night, so apologies if some comments might sounds outdated already)

Here at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Jack Burton School of TradingTM we are wondering if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market is missing a piece of information or if is, at least, underestimating a risk.

Looking at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Treasuries yield going lower? Or maybe cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bund?

What if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 recent price action (today in particular) is not driven by US "political" battles, but by China?

“I have a very positive attitude about this”: common feeling among many market participants.

Most of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Street is looking at China as not much of a problem, at least until fall. What we fear is that China is slowing down (as some data is showing) and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 slowdown is already enough to create problems for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rest of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world, especially where cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 effect of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 wall of liquidity/credit impulse/investments coming out of China has been stronger.


What have you been drinking??

Let`s try to put pieces togecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r (apart from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 obvious ones such as Chinese stocks), to name a few: Commodities, Canadian real estate, Australian real estate. We see cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m as some sort of canary in a coal mine (We can`t really count on Japanese stocks as BOJ has been buying cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m like crazy).


To confirm that China is indeed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 problem we would monitor price action in European assets. If cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y start (or keep) under-performing US assets, we think what looks like a potential fade now, will have cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 capability to transform itself into something bigger.

Source: Cornerstone Macro

Given how European risky assets have performed since cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 beginning of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 year and how consensus that view is now, we think European equities could be in for a bad surprise and anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r consensus trade, Italian BTPs, could become a bitter pill to swallow for those who recently closed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir shorts after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 French elections (if we are looking in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 right direction=East). Europe's growth is heavily dependent on China (exports to China & HK % GDP (20163Q): Germany 2.5%, Europe 1.3%, not to mention investments) and if something is truly happening cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re we will feel it in this part of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Old World.
BTP could still go up at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 beginning as Rates are bid and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market might discount a more dovish ECB, but we don't believe it could go up much more from here. In our humble opinion cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ECB would step in only after a proper risk off move, which at a certain point (as in February 2016) would drive BTP lower. Moreover, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market is not pricing anymore cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 risk of early elections in Italy (look this space..and don`t forget cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 banking system!).

So, in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end, if we just focus on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 US “noise” this move could potentially transform itself into a juicy dip for risky assets. But what if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market is looking in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 wrong direction? This will probably all transform into anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r dip meant to be bought, but in case is not remember:

“It`s all in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reflexes”. 


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johno
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May 18, 2017 at 5:34 PM ×

Agree that China is key to global risk rally, but my latest read is positive. PBOC finally stepped with liquidity a couple days ago, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rmal coal, iron ore, and steel futures all seem to have stabilized or started going up. I'd watch those.

Re Brazil, I am no expert. I'd avoided BRL because appreciation seemed capped and everything hinged on Temer not getting caught up in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 corruption probe. Now that he is, it's looking very dicey. The prospect of stabilizing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fiscal situation with reforms underpinned cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Brazilian markets. It was and is key. Problem is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se reforms are politically hard to sell to an electorate, so you need cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m done by a President elected by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sitting congress. As things were, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 markets were turning a blind eye to a material watering down of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pension reform. Now that pension reform may be dead, all togecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r. What I think you need to see here is Temer step down and a credible replacement agreed by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 coalition. Elections aren't until later in 2018, so cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re's still time to replace Temer and get cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reforms done. If you end up with early elections here, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Brazil story is potentially finished.

Luckily took off my delta-one exposure to USDTRY yesterday but put back on at spot=3.62. Then Erdogan goes on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 tape: "what has emergency rule obstructed for businessmen?" Moron. Getting run-over.

Re-shorted buxl earlier today. Maybe too early for this. Working, but we'll see.

My guess is gold is a short here.

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IPA
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May 18, 2017 at 6:33 PM ×

@johno, I'm buying your Gold right here! Exits: 1340, 1380, 1440, 1480.

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Leftback
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May 18, 2017 at 6:55 PM ×

Hard to know if we are in EM RISK-OFF buy cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 dollar (Brazil) or US RISK-OFF sell cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 dollar (Trump). Suggest we sit and wait out cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 weekend while perusing all available charts.

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johno
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May 18, 2017 at 8:25 PM ×

Temer isn't resigning => no quick resolution => I'm not touching Brazil.

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Unknown
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May 18, 2017 at 9:28 PM × This comment has been removed by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 author.
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Anonymous
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May 18, 2017 at 9:51 PM ×

Speaking of China, is this an echo of Japan in 1986 or cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 conglomerate mania in 1968, where it was believed that it was a good idea to purchase unrelated companies as long as your company had a higher p/e than cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 target (cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 premise being that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 p/e of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 combined company would maintain cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 acquirer's p/e, thus increasing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 value of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 purchase). As I recall, neicá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r of those situations ended well.

Traded 564 VIX futures today. Pretty sure that is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 most I have ever done (and a reasonable number for a little retail guy).

Confident that Harry would not make an appearance yesterday, but now I am wondering who shows up first - Harry or Nico. Probably depends on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 path forward. If cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is more carnage, I do hope that Nico shows up to call cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bottom (cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past timings of his "covering my shorts" posts have been pretty much spot on at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 nadir).

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IPA
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May 19, 2017 at 12:16 AM ×

@eruditetroll, I don't know if those two traders are coming back to help us out with calling a bottom. I think cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y may be tired of noise and are resting by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 beach. But I do think cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bottom is not near yet. I look at some monthly charts that are so overextended cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y make yesterday's pullback looks like a blip on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 radar. Pull up pretty much any NDX high-flyer tech. These charts eicá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r need a reset or anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r planet to occupy. I believe that big money is hiding cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re and may be ready to flee.

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dfdsfiol
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May 19, 2017 at 5:15 AM ×

Why are you guys talking about a bottom when all that has taken place is a tiny 2% sell off from record high territory?

The bottom is likely far far away. Use metrics like % of stocks in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 index trading under cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 200 DMA as a good indication of a bottom.

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checkmate
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May 19, 2017 at 10:55 AM ×

"Why are you guys talking about a bottom when all that has taken place is a tiny 2% sell off from record high territory? "
I would guess because expiry week as promised so much so many times before and failed to deliver following on from that week. Could this time be different. Sure it could ,but we have been here before many times have we not. Guess cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 answer gets delivered between now and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 month which as a trading statement is of little help whatsoever ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r than as an indication that sitting on one's hands might not be a bad thing to do.

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Rain
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May 19, 2017 at 12:42 PM ×

On Oil, in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 spirit of 'managing expectations' does anyone (IPA?) have a counter for a case going short oil for over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 OPEC meeting?

There was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 big move up after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Nov 30th meeting, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 additional gap higher Dec 12th, but cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price hasn't really been higher than cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 level reached that day. To recap, Nov 30th was for 1.2M bpd cut, Dec 12th was non opec joining in for anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r ~550k bpd.

Of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 three options, 1) cancel output cuts, 2) do nothing (ie maintain current reduction), and 3) increase production cuts, which is most likely, already expected and to a similar extent priced in?

I think cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 consensus seems option 2 will be cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 outcome. Is that case cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365refore not already priced in? Crude inventories haven't surprised in a bullish sense, while product inventories are increasing, limited future demand. I think potential upside based on eicá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r OPEC or demand is capped here, i'll be short July future.

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IPA
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May 19, 2017 at 1:22 PM ×

@Rain, I sold 1/3 of my long WTI position here at 50 but still have anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r third left for 52 target. I will assess cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 situation at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 top of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 range but have no current plans to short up cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re yet. If I decided to short cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re would have to be a technical reason for it like price reversing on high volume and/or major support levels breached on daily consecutive basis. I'll post cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m here as I enter/exit. If you put a gun to my head I would say crude is going up in a steady upclimb into cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 year from here on.

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johno
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May 19, 2017 at 3:40 PM ×

Rain -- cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 US is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 lowest cost storage in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world. That means inventories go down last here. The bullish surprise is yet to come in US inventories. When it does, oil goes to mid-to-high 50s. That, at least, is my framework. At cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se levels, I'm sitting tight with call spreads and KO calls, and of course, short EURNOK, which is cheap-to-oil but requires patience.

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Leftback
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May 19, 2017 at 4:06 PM ×

A few of us predicted a bounce in spoos into expiration and here we are at about cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 61.8% retrace of Wednesday's drop, with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bounce in QQQs a little better. Gap/s not yet filled. This might be a decent short set up by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 day if we hold around here going into next week. Some think it may be revealing that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bounce in small caps, IWM, and in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 10y yield are significantly smaller than that in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 spoos and Qs, with VIX not yet returning to single digits, until perhaps this afternoon.

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johno
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May 19, 2017 at 4:54 PM ×

Palladium views? Car sales look toppy in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 US and China, speculative length is high, and chart people might see some kind of wedgie thingy cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re.

Not much comment on DXY here given that it's broken cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 98 level every chart guy thinks is crucial.

Big buy-cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365-dip day in Brazil. Not biting. I still remember how (and why) people viewed this country in 2015. Without pension reform (that probably only this congress could get passed), cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country's finances are doomed. Counter-view?


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johno
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May 19, 2017 at 5:13 PM ×

For anyone who thinks cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 special prosecutor is a negative, consider:

"Five different Senate and House committees — including both congressional intelligence committees — are running inquiries into cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Russian meddling. But cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, who was appointed on Wednesday, is widely expected to ask Congress to scale back public hearings with witnesses who might be integral to his investigation.... Mr. Rosenstein also affirmed that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Justice Department’s inquiry was focused on possible crimes, meaning that potential subjects of investigation would almost certainly refuse to testify before Congress or withhold documents from lawmakers for fear of possible prosecution."

That nicely articulates why I added some risk after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 special prosecutor announcement (though I should have bought e-minis too).

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Skr
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May 19, 2017 at 7:25 PM ×

Johno re:DXY - buying op at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 moment, 95.5 worst case. Might help ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs also ;)

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Leftback
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May 19, 2017 at 9:00 PM ×

Bounce seems to have failed for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 time being, most clearly in IWM. We have a small short in IWM, now that this chart action looks consistent with a trend change, at least for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 immediate future.

Fairly boring day in bond land. Yields certainly didn't spring back…. have a good weekend, all.

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IPA
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May 19, 2017 at 10:01 PM ×

Leftback, agree with your assessment of US equities here. It was a nice bounce for those who missed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 wake up call with a chance to unload into opex. I have GTC order on NQ short @ 5688 with a stop just above cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 high - 40 point risk with 240, 300, and 370 point reward. Hopping to get filled sometime on Monday after everyone cheers no bad news over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 weekend and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n gets surprised with a mid-day selloff into cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 strength.

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SRX
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May 20, 2017 at 12:26 AM ×

Seems like you're looking for a reason to justify a China blow up cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ory (cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bodies of thousands of US and European traders over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last 30 years cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re - "uh yeah, China's a bubble") but you've not even bocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365red to look at HSI or HSCEI?

I'm going to posit cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ory that you read this at ZH:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-04/someone-blowing-rbc-warns-china-induced-unwinds-are-escalating

and you liked what you saw, and you're looking for reasons post-hoc?

* I like to recall having dinner in Tokyo with a certain Head of Department from LEH in Aug 2008: "It's unbelievable that ICBC has a larger market cap than Citi. It's definitely a bubble". For those with bad memories or too young, a couple of months LEH blows and my dinner date is getting a package, and soon after that C gets bailed out and shareholders have blue chip toilet paper.

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abee crombie
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May 20, 2017 at 4:32 AM ×

Brl is capped in my view, unless you get broad dollar strength. Even if temer leaves. But for sure it could go more before we stop. Hard to say if all that is in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price just yet. Itau did sell off 20% for some lucky dip buyers. Will have to watch CDS spreads and interest rate expectations.

So s&p filled cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 French election gap. Back to la la land. Bitcoin near $2000 now. My guess is that googl and Amzn need to hit $1000 before this is over. But Iwm is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 tell.

On China, so far it's only been correct to play China cycle via commodities. Everything else is more complicated. China is slowing not blowing up. Big difference. Global markets only panic when cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y think China is blowing up. Ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rwise it's a process. We are still enjoying cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stimulus of last year imo. But I'll be watching em leaders like kospi.

Though as I said before its so much about tech cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se days. Em is a tech driven index now along with US.

IPA I didn't buy Aeo but damn interested now. Pretty good mgmt team and good returns on capital. They are not losing to competitior imo. Just tough retail environment. Might pair it up.

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abee crombie
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May 20, 2017 at 4:43 AM ×

Re rain, johno and oil. A lot is in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price. U.S. Energy equity can't find a bottom. Hard to be bullish until cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y do. I'm holding here but starting to get worried.

If risk markets sell off I'm out. If oil is weak bc demand isn't what it's supposed to be, and we have to wait for market to factor that in, could be a lot lower fast. I'm not cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re yet but thinking ahead. Estimated demand is near highs and I don't think too many ppl have any downside factored in. Just a thought.

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IPA
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May 20, 2017 at 5:39 PM ×

I dunno abee, teen apparel does not strike me as a viable option going forward. Things in retail are unfolding fast now. Pretty sure someone can copy Aerie's model, unleash a Snapchat/Instagram advertising campaign and become a formidable competitor catching cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m by surprise. Once that happens, AEO is a single digit stock with very little left to spare. I look at bankruptcies in that space and it makes me cringe. Why am I going to invest in a stock about to go into single digits and no support on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 chart as of yet? Risky proposition in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 environment you correctly pointed out - very tough. It would completely contradict my XRT short, even if I was to pair it, which I can't see myself doing after AEO's report this week. Teens are a finicky bunch to sell to. My daughter said she does not like Aerie, but she has always been a VS girl.

More importantly, I think cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 carnage in shoe biz is a telling sign. I look at Payless bankruptcy, DSW, FINL and FL stocks and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are telling me that ladies are buying a whole lot less shoes at brick-and-mortar and men are not excited about sneakers for some reason. I say NKE 49/50 support breaks and sends shock waves through cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market and engulfs retail for sure. Scary times ahead. XRT target 35.

One stock I think could be a real loser is ULTA. I am watching cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir chart like a hawk. Yes, playing with fire, going against a cult. But if ladies can buy shoes online cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y can certainly buy cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir cosmetics and body lotions cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re as well. The nut case analysts are going crazy over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stock which is in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 thick of a vulnerable retail market and a company that expanded rapidly and has a huge exposure to slowing foot traffic at shopping centers. What could go wrong?

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IPA
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May 22, 2017 at 7:23 PM ×

Some things just don't add up today. Not trying to talk my book but... Gold is up along with stocks, oil svc stocks are down while crude is up, all defense stocks hit a wall at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 open, 10-yr is just meh while equities are ripping and commodity currencies are not ripping. I am adding to my CAD short here. I am short NQ here. I am not crazy about this rally, I think it runs out of steam this pm or tomorrow in am.

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Skr
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May 22, 2017 at 7:38 PM ×

Ah bless those duvet days.

How about that silver/gold spread trade today?
Trump it seems is not as unloved abroad as he is at h... Nah he is,but when you're a messenger, it is polite to listen.
Oil reached it objective earlier today.

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IPA
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May 22, 2017 at 11:03 PM ×

Could cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re be a possible flaw in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 thinking that WMT is going to benefit from specialty retailers and ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r big boxes shutting down cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir stores? I have to imagine cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 demand is not cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re vs cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 demand shifts to WMT. I read quite a few analysts pounding cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 table on WMT and I have to disagree. Many of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se closing stores cater to a very different consumer. I don't see how WMT gains a lot of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir biz, and if anything, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 biz is simply shifted online or is not cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re any more. Clothing/shoes, electronics, gaming - cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are all shifting online. Not a single doubt in my mind that WMT does not come up as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 top consumer choice for shopping those items online. Nor can cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y compete on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 item cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y simply don't carry in stock. WMT carries cheap crap that breaks a lot - a reputation cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y have garnered over many years and not one to be changed quickly enough to capitalize on this retail debacle. I think that resistance @ $80 holds and price goes down to test $60. Using puts to play this trade.

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abee crombie
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May 23, 2017 at 12:34 AM ×

Agreed on wmt ipa. But do momo quants care? So many stocks below thier 20 moving average. Just waiting for a reason...

Bitcoin land is going insane. Smaller crypto currencies doubling in a week.

Em tech very strong. Sold my last part of tencent. Good comapny. Crowded trade.

Xle vs oil here is giving me a pause.

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IPA
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May 23, 2017 at 4:26 AM ×

They've been selling 50 dsma on XLE and XOP since cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of Jan. One day (pretty soon) that trade will stop working and both will blow through and keep on going. I am holding onto both and will add more on that possible breakout. Inverted head and shoulders here as well.

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Anonymous
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May 23, 2017 at 12:36 PM ×

Just wanted to stop by and thank you guys for shorting spooz (and equivalents) thus helping to drive prices higher. Please continue to do so as we push through All Time Highs. Thanks guys!

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IPA
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May 23, 2017 at 2:34 PM ×

Yes HH, we know, all money went from our accounts to yours. Congrats! Based on your appearance equities should top today by noon US eastern time. Now, STFU!

So WTI doing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 dance way north of 50 may be an indication that quite a few wanted to buy cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pullback but instead will be forced to chase. It is looking to go higher still and is only 15c below YH here as I type. I rolled into N last week and have a skin in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 game, so talking my book. It's a 30c adjustment from M so my exit target is 52.30 and that is about where cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 trendline resistance (2/21 & 4/12 touches) comes in. OPEC meeting is a risk, I'd like to be out by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n. Only 1/3 position left.

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checkmate
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May 23, 2017 at 3:04 PM ×

Lot more believable HH if you could keep your storyline straight. Last time of asking your positions had banked and you were bored waiting for something to happen. Like most liars Harry you trip yourself up by assuming everybodyelse shares your lack of attention to detail. Mummy must be calling you by now. Surely diaper changing is due.

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Anonymous
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May 23, 2017 at 8:03 PM ×

ROFL! Keep shorting retards, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bank of Japan will happily buy your margin liquidations...

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IPA
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May 23, 2017 at 9:17 PM ×

Pulled cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 trigger on ULTA short. 10 dollar risk vs 70 dollar reward.
Look at DSW today, ouch! Not cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same specialty but caters to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same consumer.

Lovely charts on auto retailers today. Are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 wheels completely falling off? (pun totally intended) Soon enough cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 driverless era talk will start to take a huge bite out of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se companies and I don't know what cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y will do in those times. Must be really scary for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 execs to have a vision on that scenario. Talking about reality check. Start closing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m stores now :)

Hey Harry, STFU!

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IPA
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May 23, 2017 at 9:18 PM ×

Auto parts retailers, that is.

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IPA
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May 24, 2017 at 3:38 PM ×

55 pip slap on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 wrist on my CAD short. BOC is a bit optimistic here, I don't want to fight cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m. Using cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 weakness in Canadian banks this am to cover my leftover shorts in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m. Stepping aside to let this confusion figure itself out while my attention is totally consumed by US retail train wreck. Win some, lose some.

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johno
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May 24, 2017 at 6:03 PM ×

Nice bets in retail, IPA. DIY auto retailer short basket now -15% since inception. Covered a Canadian lender short at about -15% too.

Shorted palladium on yesterday's bounce, leaving me long aluminum short palladium in metals. In oil, recently added a curve flattener, but small as entry is late-to-cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365-game. Still long through call spread and KO call too.

In FX, exited TRYZAR Friday on concerns over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 constitutional court giving Mbete discretion to hold a secret no confidence vote. Zuma may be forced to step down to rpevent a split vote by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ANC. Or maybe Mbete hands off cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 decision to committee, giving Zuma more time. Too binary. Annoyingly put this on in high-3.70s when i-banks all went bullish. Mistake.

Took off some of my EURUSD fly yesterday that mentioned here before. 5x payoff. I'm not especially bullish EURUSD here. Looks expensive on models. Also covered buxl two days ago. Unconvinced Draghi will give us more than a "balanced risks" statement in June.

Large position short USDMYR working. Regulatory catalyst discussed here before. One of those trades you can do if you don't need 100s of millions of liquidity (but are big enough to have access to NDFs).

NOK continues to test my patience. Worse, it kept me from going long CAD. I probably agree with bearish cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365sis on Canada, but thought too slow-moving a process to short CAD when OPEC was right ahead and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 currency was quite cheap to oil/rates. Will be interesting to see if I get schooled in this NOK.


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dfdsfiol
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May 24, 2017 at 9:08 PM ×

Im sure you guys read:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-24/toronto-bidding-wars-turn-to-homebuyers-remorse-as-market-slows

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MacroWatcher
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May 24, 2017 at 9:19 PM × This comment has been removed by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 author.
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MacroWatcher
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May 24, 2017 at 9:30 PM ×

IPA, great call on auto parts retailers. I have no positions on those , I have instead shorted part makers with very concentrated set of clients like AXL and MRE , on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rationale that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y will suffer as auto makers cut production to deal with inventory build up and lower sales. Also on retail , still short XRT even though I did buy half on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 recent move back to 44 at 42.5. Got fooled by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 noise but confident it will go to 35 now. Yesterday cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re was a Demark sequential buy so we may have a opportunity to add to position soon. Also added FCX here, tracks iron ore very closely and historically buying iron ore after such a steep drop works pretty well, as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 chinese manage to contain it, at least for now.
On Europe, confident that economic green shoots will quickly disappear and that it will follow US eco cycle as usual. So far things have been going cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r way but fortunately played it by going long euribor and not short eur so I'm scraping a profit.

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IPA
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May 24, 2017 at 10:30 PM ×

dfdsfiol, thank for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 link. Being early was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 key. Letting Canadian banks retrace a bit before shorting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m again. Also, it looks like BOC is talking up cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 CAD and trying to calm cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market down. Sounds familiar? Ben did cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same until cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re was no one left to listen. I am sure cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 snowball effect is what's in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 back of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir mind.

MacroWatcher, I have a lot of respect for traders who were much earlier than me on this auto parts trade. It is a train wreck with no relief in sight. Not sure how cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se companies will operate in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 environment where cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 incremental sales are gone, both commercial and residential fleets become disposable bunch of junk, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re may even be an increasing tax burden for those who want to keep multiple cars on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir driveway, as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 tax per vehicle will rise significantly when gov't becomes clever on how to generate more tax revenue per vehicle while cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 new auto SAAR craters. Tough times ahead for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m, no doubt.

On FCX. I made a lot of money on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stock last year. I let it all go into two weeks of post-election madness. I am not following it at all right now but wish you all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 luck. Watch $12, huge support/resistance level. I am sure you already know this. If you are into iron ore look at CLF as well. Needs to find a bottom first.

I am stopped out of NQ short and will reassess my view on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next breakdown (if one ever comes in this life). Don't like to short new highs, as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is nothing to hide cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stop behind. HH, (in advance) STFU!

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abee crombie
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May 25, 2017 at 3:41 AM ×

Why short FCX on iron ore trade, play Value or FMG. Go direct, IMO. I like cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m both, but lower, not with China slowing still not 100% priced in imo.

Its probably a little early calling cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Canadian housing boom. Perhaps it could be but I doubt you will convince many Canadians cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir house prices might go down a lot. And given that prices are up like 30% YoY in places like Toronto, even if prices went down 10 -15%, does it matter? You have to really see what happens afterwards. Now is way too early, imo. Canadian banks, meh, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y will only feel cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 2nd round effects of this. You can shoot first, but I dont mind to wait and see. You can short domestic plays for a while if it materializes...

IPA i'm short ULTA too. But right now its just a play on earnings. Good luck. While Im not optimistic cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y will miss (since cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are doing pretty well now) if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y do you gotta be in before.

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May 25, 2017 at 4:13 AM ×

In addition to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 auto parts trade, do you have any thoughts on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 used car market? Have been looking at Carmax and some of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 lenders (mostly SC), but have not shorted yet.

Thanks in advance.

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Unknown
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May 25, 2017 at 1:29 PM × This comment has been removed by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 author.
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