Saturday, June 19, 2010

California Real Estate Recovery Continues in May

Highlights from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 DQNews report on May California home sales:

1.  In May, 40,965 houses and condos were sold statewide, which was an increase of 9.3 percent from April (28,111), and up 4.9 percent from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 37,967 houses sold in May 2009 (see chart).

2. The median price for a California home sold in May was $278,000, up 9 percent from $255,000 in April and up 20.9 percent from $230,000 last May (see chart).

3. The year-over-year increase was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 seventh in a row (starting in November 2009, which is likely cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bottom for home prices in CA), following 27 months of year-over-year declines.

4. Of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 existing homes sold in May, 35.5 percent were properties that had been foreclosed on during cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past year, down from 38.1 percent in April and down from 50.2 percent a year ago (see chart). The last time foreclosure resales were as low was in March 2008, 27 months ago. 

MP: This report seems to have all of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 key ingredients of a real estate market in full recovery mode: 1) increasing unit sales, 2) increasing median home prices for seven consecutive months, and 3) declining foreclosed homes as a share of sales (27-month low).   

5 Comments:

At 6/19/2010 11:19 AM, Blogger Evil Red Scandi said...

Activity is up, but according to several of my friends that work in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 biz (real estate agents, brokers, and mortgage reps), cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 activity is unusual. There is still a very high percentage of short-sales, and an unusually high percentage of investment buyers (one broker told me 70% of his sales).

So prices have stabilized and even gone back up a little bit, but that's not really evidence of a return towards status quo ante. That's not to say that a new, strong market based on investment owners won't emerge, or that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 traditional owner-occupier buyers won't come back. Or this might just be temporary binge of bargain-hunting or capital flight from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stock market and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market will resume tanking again. It just means that things are different, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market is at a slightly higher price point that it was a few months ago. Anyone who can accurately predict cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 future based on this has an excellent opportunity to make a very large pile of money (it ain't me).

It's situations like this that tempt me (sometimes successfully) to throw cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "Cargo Cultist" label at economists - cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y see some trends in numbers, match cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m up against previous trends, and say "ooooh, we're tanking!" or "oooooh, we're recovering" without understanding cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 underlying reasons behind those numbers. If cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 underlying reasons don't match as well, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 trends have far less (and perhaps zero) predictive value.

 
At 6/19/2010 11:23 AM, Blogger Evil Red Scandi said...

Of course, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re's always cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 possibility that my friends were lying or that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y coincidentally represent some bizarre subset of activity that's not representative of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 whole (data not being cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 plural of anecdote, etc).

But that being said, I'll take anecdotes from people who are actually "on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ground" over pretty charts and graphs based on highly aggregated data every time.

 
At 6/19/2010 1:42 PM, Anonymous Benny The Man said...

Home sales are chugging along in Los Angeles. The market already bottomed, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 worst is past. Sales and prices edging up steadily, if slowly.
We are in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 early stages of a recovery, so cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re be mixed signals from time to time. No recovery is a straight line on all fronts.
Look for higher property values in next several years, as real interest rates trend towards zero.
Huge piles of capital on world markets.

 
At 6/19/2010 3:03 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Hmmm, real estate recovery continues, he"

Well now I'm looking at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 May numbers at for California at RealtyTrac:

Note cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 following:

New Foreclosure Filings = 72,030 YTD = 375,307

Foreclosure Sales = 13,804 YTD = 78,438

Is that a lot of housing that still open compared with actual housing out cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re?

The relative upside: 37% savings from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 (?) original prices...

California median home price rises in month

'The median home price in California last month surged 20.9 percent from May 2009 to $278,000, as inventories of low-cost foreclosures dwindled and transactions in mid-range and high-end neighborhoods claimed a greater share of sales, a tracking firm reported Thursday'...

Sounds like cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 news is getting better all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 time...

 
At 6/20/2010 3:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am a real estate investor of 30+ years. I move in and out of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cycle. I sold in early 2006 (also in 1989). I shop constantly, and buy only when I feel cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cycle is positioned for an uptrend. I hold for years until cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market gets really frothy.

I bought just one rental home last year (from a bank). There is nothing available today at close to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price I paid.

I am still shopping, planning to buy more (in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 $300K to $600k range), but cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is less inventory and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 prices are up from last year.

Like prior cycles, I expect a slow recovery, with a few years of little price movement, followed by a few years of a stronger boom.

 

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