Friday, July 2, 2010

The Employment Picture

The employment report for June might make one somewhat pessimistic about growth in aggregate economic activity. Certainly some of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 private sector economists surveyed here think so. The establishment survey showed a decline in seasonally adjusted employment (see cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 chart), and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 household survey also showed a second monthly decline, seasonally adjusted (see cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 second chart). As usual, we have to be cautious about reading too much into one-month changes in time series that include a lot of measurement error. However, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re appears to be accumulating evidence that things are not going so well.

But let's not be too hasty. Following cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same approach as for last month's employment report, I looked at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 12-month growth rates in unadjusted establishment employment (see cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 third chart).Now this looks more innocuous. Employment growth is still negative (just barely) year-over-year, but it is coming back strongly, and faster than was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 case during cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last recession.

Conclusion: How you filter cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 data matters a lot. There is no reason you should trust my year-over-year filter more than what cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 BLS uses (X11, X12, or some variant) to do seasonal adjustment, but at least cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 year-over-year filter is simple enough for a simpleton like me to understand exactly what it is doing. The more I think about seasonal adjustment, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 less I trust it, particularly at times like this when all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 unusual shocks hitting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy are likely to confuse X11 (X12, or whatever). The reason we use seasonal adjustment is so that we can conveniently eyeball time series. If we could train ourselves to eyeball cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 unadjusted series, that would be great. I actually tried with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 unadjusted employment series and just gave myself a headache. Maybe Jeff Miron can do this, but I can't.

4 comments:

  1. Check out Brad DeLong's comment on this analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  2. It's located here:

    http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/07/department-of-huh-stephen-williamson-doesnt-know-what-he-is-doing-department.html

    Well, negative attention is better than none. As I've said before, I've never claimed to be an expert on anything, or to know what I'm doing. I'm glad Brad is reading my stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r thing to look at is initial claims. The improvement in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 4-week moving average of initial claims has virtually stalled since mid-December. You can see cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 charts here: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/06/four-week-moving-average-of-weekly.html

    -- Dave

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks for sharing your info. I really appreciate your efforts and I will be waiting for your furcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r write ups thanks once again.
    Bot and me| Images|

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