Sunday, December 12, 2010

The dangers of a rising China

The dangers of a rising China

China and America are bound to be rivals, but cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y do not have to be antagonists

TOWARDS cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of 2003 and early in 2004 China’s most senior leaders put aside cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 routine of governing 1.3 billion people to spend a couple of afternoons studying cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rise of great powers. You can imagine history’s grim inventory of war and destruction being laid out before cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y examined how, from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 15th century, empires and upstarts had often fought for supremacy. And you can imagine cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m moving on to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 real subject of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir inquiry: whecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r China will be able to take its place at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 top without anyone resorting to arms.

In many ways China has made efforts to try to reassure an anxious world. It has repeatedly promised that it means only peace. It has spent freely on aid and investment, settled border disputes with its neighbours and rolled up its sleeves in UN peacekeeping forces and international organisations. When North Korea shelled a South Korean island last month China did at least try to create a framework to rein in its neighbour.

But reasonable China sometimes gives way to aggressive China. In March, when cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 North sank a South Korean warship, killing 46 sailors, China failed to issue any condemnation. A few months later it fell out with Japan over some Chinese fishermen, arrested for ramming Japanese coastguard vessels around some disputed islands—and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n it locked up some Japanese businessmen and withheld exports of rare earths vital for Japanese industry. And it has forcefully reasserted its claim to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Spratly and Paracel Islands and to sovereignty over virtually cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 entire South China Sea.
As cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Chinese leaders’ history lesson will have told cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 relationship that determines whecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world is at peace or at war is that between pairs of great powers. Sometimes, as with Britain and America, it goes well. Sometimes, as between Britain and Germany, it does not.
So far, things have gone remarkably well between America and China. While China has devoted itself to economic growth, American security has focused on Islamic terrorism and war in Iraq and Afghanistan. But cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 two mistrust each ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r. China sees America as a waning power that will eventually seek to block its own rise. And America worries about how Chinese nationalism, fuelled by rediscovered economic and military might, will express itself (see our special report).

The Peloponnesian pessimists
Pessimists believe China and America are condemned to be rivals. The countries’ visions of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 good society are very different. And, as China’s power grows, so will its determination to get its way and to do things in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world. America, by contrast, will inevitably balk at surrendering its pre-eminence.
They are probably right about Chinese ambitions. Yet China need not be an enemy. Unlike cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Soviet Union, it is no longer in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 business of exporting its ideology. Unlike cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 19th-century European powers, it is not looking to amass new colonies. And China and America have a lot in common. Both benefit from globalisation and from open markets where cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y buy raw materials and sell cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir exports. Both want a broadly stable world in which nuclear weapons do not spread and rogue states, like Iran and North Korea, have little scope to cause mayhem. Both would lose incalculably from war.
The best way to turn China into an opponent is to treat it as one. The danger is that spats and rows will sour relations between China and America, just as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 friendship between Germany and Britain crumbled in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 decades before cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first world war. It is already happening in defence. Feeling threatened by American naval power, China has been modernising its missiles, submarines, radar, cyber-warfare and anti-satellite weapons. Now America feels on its mettle. Recent Pentagon assessments of China’s military strength warn of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 threat to Taiwan and American bases and to aircraft-carriers near cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Chinese coast. The US Navy has begun to deploy more forces in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Pacific. Feeling threatened anew, China may respond. Even if neicá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r America nor China intended harm—if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y wanted only to ensure cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir own security—each could nevercá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365less see cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r as a growing threat.
Some would say cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 solution is for America to turn its back on military rivalry. But a weaker America would lead to chronic insecurity in East Asia and thus threaten cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 peaceful conduct of trade and commerce on which America’s prosperity depends. America cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365refore needs to be strong enough to guarantee cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 seas and protect Taiwan from Chinese attack.

How to take down cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Great Wall
History shows that superpowers can coexist peacefully when cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rising power believes it can rise unhindered and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 incumbent power believes that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 way it runs cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world is not fundamentally threatened. So a military build-up needs to be accompanied by a build-up of trust.
There are lots of ways to build trust in Asia. One would be to help ensure that disputes and misunderstandings do not get out of hand. China should thus be more open about its military doctrine—about its nuclear posture, its aircraft-carriers and missile programme. Likewise, America and China need rules for disputes including North Korea (see article), Taiwan, space and cyber-warfare. And Asia as a whole needs agreements to help prevent every collision at sea from becoming a trial of strength.
America and China should try to work multilaterally. Instead of today’s confusion of competing venues, Asia needs a single regional security forum, such as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 East Asia Summit, where it can do business. Asian countries could also collaborate more in confidence-boosting non-traditional security, such as health, environmental protection, anti-piracy and counter-terrorism, where threats by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir nature cross borders.
If America wants to bind China into cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rules-based liberal order it promotes, it needs to stick to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rules itself. Every time America breaks cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m—by, for instance, protectionism—it feeds China’s suspicions and undermines cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 very order it seeks.
China and America have one advantage over history’s great-power pairings: cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y saw cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 20th century go disastrously wrong. It is up to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m to ensure that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 21st is different.

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