Monday, February 28, 2011

Time for Next Move on Yuan Liberalization

Time for Next Move on Yuan Liberalization

By PETER STEIN

Last year, China made waves by letting foreign investors get cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir hands on more of its currency. This year, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 big question for many is what China will let cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m do with that money.

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A Chinese bank worker counts a stack of 100-yuan notes at a bank in Hefei, east China's Anhui province on February 27, 2011.
.The first stage of a grand experiment took place last year, when China put in place measures that let people outside its borders for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first time trade in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 currency of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world's second-biggest economy, creating a new market for offshore yuan and yuan-based securities.

The take-up has been swift and enthusiastic. Daily trading in offshore yuan now totals more than $600 million, according to Deutsche Bank AG. That's small by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 standards of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 $4-trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market but up sharply from only around $100 million in October. After helping sell about 36 billion yuan ($5.48 billion) of "dim sum bonds" last year in Hong Kong, bankers reckon this year's issuance could easily double that figure. One company is already working on launching what could be Hong Kong's first ever yuan-denominated share offering.

The reforms are having a global impact, allowing traders in London and New York to buy and sell what was until recently an isolated, walled-off currency. But cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 impact in Hong Kong, an offshore finance center that's nonecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365less part of China, is especially powerful. Peter Pang, deputy chief executive of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Hong Kong Monetary Authority, told investors at a Goldman Sachs conference last week cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ex-British territory's role as incubator of this new market is "probably cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 most important development in Hong Kong's evolution as an international financial center in recent decades."

Feeding this market are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 piles of yuan mounting in this city's bank accounts. These totaled 314.9 billion yuan ($47.9 billion) as of Dec. 31, up fivefold from a year earlier, boosted by Beijing's efforts to promote use of yuan over dollars to settle China's overseas trade deals, as well as by expectations that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 yuan's value will continue to rise over time. Economists are expecting those deposits to reach anywhere between 500 billion and 1 trillion yuan by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 year.

But cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re's a problem: What do you do with all that yuan? Pocketing 3% to 4% annual appreciation against cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 dollar is all fine and good, but can you put cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 money to work? Offshore-yuan securities help, but cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y're no substitute for being able to invest directly in China. And cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 yuan won't appreciate forever.

It's an important question for companies looking to raise funds through cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 offshore yuan market, as each must seek permission to bring cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 money cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y raise into China. And China gives Hong Kong banks with yuan deposits only a limited ability to invest that money in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mainland and make a return.

.Behind cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reluctance to let yuan (also known as renminbi, or RMB) flow back into China is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 specter of "hot money" controlled by shadowy hedge funds that some in China fear might destabilize cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country's financial system. At cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Goldman Sachs conference, a senior Chinese central banker acknowledged differences of opinion on this subject within China, while dismissing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fears as unfounded.

"Maybe you have noticed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is a lot of debate about hot money and international use of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 RMB," said Xing Yujing, deputy director general of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 monetary-policy department of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 People's Bank of China, adding: "we should be aware of some false propositions."

Some policy makers apparently believe letting yuan flow back into China isn't necessary. Fang Xinghai, director general of Shanghai's financial services office, in January suggested at a public forum in Hong Kong that most funds raised here through yuan bonds should be kept offshore to promote cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 yuan's internationalization. Those aren't reassuring words for many wannabe bond issuers. Nothing spoils your appetite for dim-sum debt like being told you can't invest your money in China and earn a good return.

More promising are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 prospects for a new investment quota that would allow foreign institutions cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 right to park some of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir yuan in mainland Chinese stocks and bonds. Hong Kong officials say that program, long anticipated by players in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market, is under discussion.

Victor Chu, chairman of First Eastern Investment Group, predicted Beijing will soon allow more creative ways of pumping yuan back into China. One might allow private-equity firms to raise yuan offshore and invest it back onshore. That could inject a bit more long-term investment perspective into cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market, since private-equity funds raise, deploy and recoup cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir funds over periods as long as eight to 10 years.

"Hong Kong will have a role to play because cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 expertise and action is here," Mr. Chu said.

To get to that point, though, China's leadership will need to accept that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir goal of internationalizing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 renminbi depends on giving people enough incentive to be part of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 process.

Write to Peter Stein at peter.stein@wsj.com

Sunday, February 27, 2011

团购网站黎明之前:中国市场惨烈厮杀不可避免

团购网站黎明之前:中国市场惨烈厮杀不可避免

文章来源: 经济观察报 于 2011-02-26 07:58:59
敬请注意:新闻取自各大新闻媒体,新闻内容并不代表本网立场!

团购网站已经成了中国创业者的新乐园。团购网站的鼻祖Groupon取得的巨大成功让很多人似乎看到了在短时间内打开财富之门的途径。在这一商业模式被引进中国的一年多里,大量的模仿者一哄而上,来自中国电子商业研究中心的数字显示,在过去一年里,初具规模的团购网站已经达到了1880家,这还不包括那些已经死去的或者并无生命力的700多家网站。

  回顾过去的历次互联网创业大潮,似乎很难找到像团购这样如此低门槛,看上去又那么容易成功的商业模式。Groupon刚刚拒绝了Google高达60亿美元的收购计划,他们认为自己的价值将远远超过这个价格。这一行为无疑极大地激励了全球团购网站的创业者,他们因此相信,如果能将这一模式复制到自己的国度,成功将唾手可得。

  乐观的心态弥漫着整个团购行业。然而,他们必须意识到,所有低门槛的行业都必须面临惊人的淘汰率,和更加残酷的丛林法则。在巨头出现并为这个行业树立新的门槛之前,很多参与者将折戟沉沙。这一幕在团购网站上演将毫无悬念。创新工场董事长李开复就曾预言,最后只有大约10家网站会成为幸存者。李开复的预言会否成真姑且不论,唯一可以肯定的是,在团购网站的黎明到来之前,在这个越来越拥挤的行业,一场惨烈的厮杀不可避免。

  乱世

  今年年初,美团网和糯米网相继推出了高达1.3亿元和2亿元的广告投放计划,拉手、满座、24券等网站也表示,“今年将是树品牌的一年”,将大力加强广告投放力度。为了聚拢人气,有的网站推出了以房子、汽车为奖品的抽奖,iPad、iPhone等更是成为团购网站的常规奖品。

  “大家都吃了兴奋剂。”拉手网CEO吴波说。就业务量而言,拉手网在中国团购网站中名列前茅。与大多数团购网站领军者的意气风发不同,吴波给人的感觉比较沉稳和淡定。作为目前团购网站近乎疯狂的广告投放的参与者,他很无奈地表示,这并非出自他的本意,因为投入和产出已经偏离理性的轨道。“原来以为团购是在跑马拉松,不需要吃兴奋剂,但现在发现需要跑200米、500米,别人都在吃,有点害怕,就咬牙吃了。”他说。

  吴波已经意识到2011年对他们生死攸关,这同时也是大部分团购网站对今年形势的判断。满座网CEO冯晓海给自己的时间更短。“三个月以后真正排名就会比较清晰了。”冯晓海说。他曾因创办爱卡汽车网并在国内首推汽车团购而一战成名。这位年轻的CEO在北京东直门一间并不宽敞的办公室里,表达了他对这个行业格局的清晰判断。他认为,洗牌从去年10月就已经开始,已经有一波网站在这个时间点之后倒下。在未来的三个月,将会有新一轮的淘汰浪潮。“因为从行业的规则来讲,基本上三个月是一个价格战周期,包括广告推广、促销的阶段性效果,都将在三个月内显现。”

  但他认为,那些在这一轮竞争中失败的企业未必会就此消失,而是可能被第二集团化。作为中国最早的团购网站之一,满座网的目标显然是成为第一集团中的一员。但现在看来,一年多成功经营的经验似乎也不足以保证他们实现这一目标。原因是,除了来自草根创业者的挑战,资本和互联网大鳄们已经毫不掩饰对中国团购这片沃土的觊觎。百度、腾讯、淘宝、360等公司都已宣布将介入团购业务,无论从哪个角度看,这些巨头在团购这种基于某个平台而生的互联网模式面前,都有很强的竞争力。他们的加入让这一领域的竞争变得更加复杂。

  但最令中国团购的先行者们担忧的,可能是Groupon的强势入侵。这家当今世界最具潜力的网站(据传其IPO规模将达150亿美元)和它自视甚高的创始人AndrewMason想到中国市场几乎是理所当然的事。他们以一种强悍的方式进入中国,虽然至今看上去一事无成,但至少已经打乱了中国同行的发展节奏。拉手网吴波承认,如果不是感到Groupon的威胁,他们不会往广告市场砸那么多钱。此外,Groupon大肆高薪挖人也让这个行业变得风声鹤唳,国内几个大的团购网站甚至达成君子协定,对在Groupon工作过的人将永不录用。“确有此事。”冯晓海说。

  本质

  在中国团购市场最终沦为大公司的殖民地之前,大多数团购网站并不打算举起白旗。毕竟,如果那些互联网大佬能单凭自身的资源优势轻而易举地接管这个市场,那么Google还有什么必要花60亿元收购Groupon呢?

  国内很多团购网站显然也意识到了这一点,至少吴波、冯晓海等人达成的共识是:第一,他们在中国市场确立的优势不会轻易被撼动;第二,团购在中国经过一年多的发展,如果要寻求空间,必须在市场细分和提升服务质量上做文章;第三,对一个线上(网络平台)和线下(营销队伍)相结合的商业模式来说,管理水平尤为重要;第四,弹药必须充足,必须有资本作为支撑。

  在经历了一年多的摸索之后,很多团购网站不约而同地表达了摆脱蛮荒状态的渴望,而这正是他们确立新的竞争优势的开始。Groupon在美国所获得的佣金比例高达50%,而在中国,佣金往往很难超过10%。激烈的竞争让整个行业的利润率变得很薄,如果没有增值服务,行业的生存环境将变得更加苛刻。这促使一些团购网站创始人开始冷静下来思考这个行业的本质。

  致力于精准营销的浪淘金公司CEO周杰认为,从营销角度来看,团购的本质是一个促销信息的渠道。比如Groupon核心资产是5000多万的邮件列表,有66%的打开率,有非常活跃的促销信息的发放通路,这个通路为它形成了很好的效益。在美国,商家跟它合作,有庞大的数据库,能够大量有效地发送信息,大量的销售额,大量的新客户,大商家愿意做出大幅度的让利,因此更多的会员愿意加入。“团购网站的典型特点是促销信息的一个渠道,最终谁能赢,就看谁能积累有效的邮件列表,或者会员库。”周杰认为。

  冯晓海也认同这样的观点。他认为对于团购网站而言,最大的特点是用户在网站消费的痕迹或者信息的不断积累和留存,网站能分析到用户家在哪儿,喜欢吃什么,朋友是谁,年龄大概多少。基于这些精准的数据分析,可以不打广告,直接送服务,帮助客户完成营销。

  “我们在做整个团购的时候,一定要成为产业链中增值的一环,必要的一环,生意才能做长久。”他说。在他看来,团购只是一种表现形式,其本质是为谁服务。一个令他印象深刻的例子是,满座曾经为一个糕点企业做办公室蛋糕的推送服务,一次卖出了2000份。之后这个客户找到他说,如果满座能卖出 5000份蛋糕,它将拥有跟上游供应商更大的议价权,从而改变蛋糕的成本和价格。结果满座通过其数据库的资料做了一次精准营销,这5000份蛋糕半天就卖光了。

  资源

  除了对这个行业进行重新的定位和梳理,很多团购网站意识到,在决战到来之前,占有尽可能多的资源将尤为重要。Groupon冒失的挖人之举如果说产生了什么效果的话,那就是提醒它的对手当前的紧迫形势。

  团购网站作为商业模式与传统的互联网模式最大的区别可能在于,它必须借助大量线下的人力去完成诸多环节,包括商家的开拓、物流配送等等。冯晓海就一直在提醒自己的员工,“不要把满座看成一个互联网公司,我们是在用互联网的方式做传统的事情”。对大多数团购网站而言,其营销队伍无法通过虚拟世界的力量获得,而必须是实打实的人力投入。吴波表示,目前为止,拉手网每个客户评价需要捆绑一个销售人员。对于扩张中的团购网站而言,销售人员将是一支庞大关键的队伍,这就是Groupon的挖人计划会引起这么大反击的原因。

  当然,团购网站需要争夺的资源不仅仅是营销人员,还有商家、未开发的城市,以及各路犹豫不决的资本。

  团购面对的是本地服务市场,本地化的采购与服务是团购网站成功的根基。在北上广这些大城市的争夺趋于白热化之际,二、三线城市的圈地也逐渐展开。

  满座目前已经在25个城市了设有分支机构,基本覆盖了北、上、广、深,以及长江、珠江和渤海地区,以及成都等西南地区,“未来所有的省会城市,以及我们定义的二线和三线城市,都会覆盖我们的服务。”冯晓海说。2010年3月才开始在中国正式运营的团宝网则已迅速覆盖到108个一、二线城市。

  此外,一些团购网站还对传统互联网公司的领地发起了冲击。拉手网已经开通了酒店频道。据吴波介绍,在开通酒店频道之前,拉手已经在广州和上海做过酒店团购,效果特别好,有一些用户希望更常态化。同时他发现,在东欧的一些团购网站,卖得最好的是旅游。当他注意到携程惊人的市值和旅游市场的惊人需求之后,跟携程抢生意的想法油然而生。

  但在吴波看来,虽然目前团购市场的争夺如此激烈,但电子商务市场的快速增长在某种程度上稀释了这种竞争的残酷性。据统计,中国通过互联网浏览商品或者服务信息的人占到了整个网民人数的80%,但有实际购买行为的只占35%,这中间的巨大落差意味着团购网站仍有很大的发展机会。

  “谷歌和百度竞争的时候,发现想把对方的忠诚用户转过来都不容易,都在看的是新用户,我相信团购市场也是类似的。”曾经在Google工作过的浪淘金CEO周杰说。

  除了Groupon表现得剑拔弩张之外,国内几家大型团购网站似乎都在强调分享这个市场的可能性,这可以理解为一种生存策略,同时也是中国团购市场的客观写照,那就是,竞争很激烈,但空间也很大。

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Saudi Help Ignores cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 'Gravity' of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Oil Crisis

Saudi Help Ignores cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 'Gravity' of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Oil Crisis

By ANDREW PEAPLE
Saudi Arabia's ride to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rescue of global oil markets may be hobbled at birth.

The kingdom may have plenty of spare production capacity, but its oil isn't as high quality as Libya's. So while Saudi willingness to ramp up output has taken cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 froth off headline oil prices, a full reversal of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sharp rise this week is contingent on a more settled outlook for Libya.

On paper, Saudi Arabia can replace lost Libyan supply. Its 3.5 million barrels a day of spare capacity at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of January is far more than Libya's daily production of 1.6 million barrels. But Libya's oil is sweeter and less sulphurous than that produced by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Saudis. Refiners prefer higher-grade crude as processing it into gasoline and ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r products is less complex. As Libya exports cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bulk of its oil output, primarily to soucá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rn Europe, refiners that can't process heavier Saudi crude will need to find replacement supplies.
Similar-quality crude can be found, notably in West Africa and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 North Sea. But cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se areas may struggle to ramp up production; combined spare capacity in Angola and Nigeria was just 450,000 barrels a day at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of January, according to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 International Energy Agency. The relative scarcity of high-quality oil is widening cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price differential between higher-grade crude and heavier oils. The spread between North Sea Brent and Russian Urals crude has widened 32% in two weeks.
Since higher-grade crude prices feed into cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 benchmark Brent futures price, headline oil prices likely will remain high despite cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Saudi willingness to intervene. Reports of production outages in Libya also will keep markets volatile as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 supply situation tightens. Near term, refiners can survive by running down inventories, while upgrades in recent years mean more European refineries can process heavier oils cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se days.
Still, absent a calmer situation in Libya, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 8.7% rise in Brent futures to above $111 a barrel this week likely will stick.
Write to Andrew Peaple at andrew.peaple@dowjones.com

External Surpluses Root Cause of China's Inflation Problem

External Surpluses Root Cause of China's Inflation Problem

By AARON BACK

BEIJING—China's large external imbalances, combined with its interventions in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 foreign -exchange market, are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "root cause" of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country's current inflation problem, Yi Gang, vice governor of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 People's Bank of China, said Saturday.

China should increase cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 flexibility of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 yuan exchange rate and undertake a number of internal structural changes to reduce its trade surplus, Mr. Yi said, adding that China's focus should be on boosting imports racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r than suppressing exports.

In a wide-ranging lecture at a university in Beijing, Mr. Yi also rejected many criticisms often heard in China of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 central bank and its investment of foreign exchange reserves, saying it would be difficult to diversify cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reserves into commodities or ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r alternative assets.

China's large "twin surpluses" in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 current account and capital account have created massive inflows of foreign currency. The PBOC buys up those inflows by issuing newly minted yuan, thus swelling cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 money supply and adding to inflation pressures, Mr. Yi said.

"Why do we have so much base money? Why is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 money supply relatively loose? A major reason is that our surpluses are too large," Mr. Yi said. "To maintain cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 basic stability of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 yuan exchange rate, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 central bank buys up foreign exchange inflows. If it didn't, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 yuan wouldn't be so stable."

In addition to boosting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 flexibility of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 yuan exchange rate, China also should adjust resource prices to address imbalances, he said, as many resources are still traded in China at below cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir natural prices. China also should boost wages and social benefits to lift consumption, step up its enforcement of environment regulations and undertake ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r structural reforms to address imbalances.

After cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 PBOC buys up foreign exchange inflows, it attempts to "sterilize" or offset cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 newly created money supply by ordering banks to hold more funds in reserve and by issuing central bank bills. But Mr. Yi said such sterilization operations have costs to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 central bank, as it must pay interest to banks on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bills and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reserve funds that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y park with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 central bank.

"We have been undertaking sterilization efforts to lock up excessive liquidity and maintain price stability," Mr. Yi said. "But all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se actions have costs. We have to take into account cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 marginal costs and benefits if this state of affairs persists."

Many in China argue that inflows of "hot money," short-term capital that seeks to benefit from yuan appreciation and interest-rate arbitrage, are also a main factor behind China's foreign reserve accumulation and a source of imported inflation pressures.

However, estimates released last week by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 State Administration of Foreign Exchange--a unit of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 central bank that Mr. Yi also heads--showed such hot money inflows to be relatively limited, with just $35.5 billion of net inflows last year. Mr. Yi said cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 figures demonstrate that hot money inflows account for a small part of total reserve accumulation and that China's current and capital account surpluses are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 main factor.

Some analysts inside and outside of China said SAFE's figures likely underestimate cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 true level of hot money inflows, as many such inflows are deliberately disguised as ordinary current account transactions. Mr. Yi acknowledged that this takes place to a certain degree but defended cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 overall accuracy of SAFE's estimates. Estimates by foreign countries such as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir deficits with China are even greater than China's estimates, he said, indicating that China's estimates can't be significantly understated.

Many Chinese critics of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 central bank argue that China should diversify its foreign exchange reserves away from sovereign debt--U.S. Treasury bonds in particular--and toward ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r assets such as commodities or even land. Mr. Yi said it is difficult for China to diversity into such assets without having a large impact on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir market price.

Write to Aaron Back at aaron.back@dowjones.com

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Inflation:What lies ahead - PIMCO

Inflation: What Lies Ahead
  • We expect popular measures of inflation to show modest increases in price levels this year from last year.
  • Masked behind cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se seemingly benign near-term increases in inflation are a number of longer-term factors that we believe could actually result in undesirably high rates of inflation in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 not-too-distant future.
  • Higher rates of increases in food, energy and ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r commodity prices are leading to a divergence between cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 core rate of inflation that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Fed focuses on and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 headline rate that includes food and energy prices and actually affects consumers.
Mihir P. Worah
For 2011, we expect cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 measure of inflation of most interest to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Federal Reserve, core Consumer Price Index (CPI, not including food and energy), to average 1.0% to 1.5%, up from 0.8% in 2010. More importantly, we expect headline CPI, which includes food and energy, to average 1.7% to 2.2%, up from 1.5% in 2010.
Masked behind cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se seemingly benign near-term increases in inflation from what many deem as undesirably low rates to more “reasonable” rates are a number of longer-term factors that we believe could actually result in undesirably high rates of inflation in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 not-too-distant future. Persistently higher rates of increases in food, energy and ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r commodity prices are leading to a divergence between cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 core rate of inflation that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Fed focuses on and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 headline rate that includes food and energy prices and actually affects consumers (Figure 1).
Models used to forecast U.S. inflation can fall short, because cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are generally not designed to incorporate fundamental changes occurring in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. economy. Our expectation of higher headline inflation in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 foreseeable future is based on our judgment as well as use of models while knowing and understanding cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir limitations. One of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 key issues to consider going forward is that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 emerging countries are transitioning from being exporters of disinflation to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 developed countries to being exporters of inflation.
All things considered, investors may wish to consider adding assets typically associated with inflation-hedging strategies to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir portfolios.



Near-Term Outlook
First, let’s touch upon our near-term or one-year outlook. We model core inflation using both a “top-down” Phillips curve–based model as well as a “bottom-up” one that explicitly models and predicts cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 individual components of CPI, like car prices, apartment rents, groceries etc. (The Phillips curve represents a historical relationship between cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rate of inflation and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 unemployment rate.) Both of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se approaches come up with a number near 1.2% for core CPI in 2011. Much of this expected rise from last year’s 0.8% core CPI number comes from a steadying in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cost of shelter, which is 40% of core CPI and which had plummeted amid cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 housing crisis. The primary inputs into cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cost of shelter are rents or imputed rents (since cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bureau of Labor Statistics only wants to capture cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 utility part of shelter and not cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 investment aspect of owning a home). Rents stopped going down in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 middle of last year and both our model (Figure 2) and anecdotal evidence support a firming in rental prices this year.



Notwithstanding cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 firming in rents, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 1.2% central prediction for core CPI in 2011 is still benign, and perhaps cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Fed will continue to view core CPI as too low and too close to zero or deflation.
However, it is possible that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se models are underestimating future inflation. For example, we already know what cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se models would predict for core inflation in 2012 if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 unemployment rate were still hovering around 9.0%, as PIMCO currently expects. The models would predict anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r year of nonexistent wage pressure, significant slack in resource utilization and hence a below trend inflation number (provided inflation expectations remained anchored). 

These models cannot incorporate what we believe are structural changes in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. economy, like a higher Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU, a level of unemployment below which inflation rises) and concurrently a lower than historic trend growth rate for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. economy accompanied by an unprecedented expansion of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Fed’s balance sheet. As each year goes by, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 near term moves ever closer to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 long term and one has to augment cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se cyclical models with longer-term models and secular thinking to try and catch cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 shifts that models just cannot catch. More important and immediate, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se closed economy models for domestic inflation do not pick up cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 inflationary impact, both direct and indirect, of higher commodity prices resulting from strong emerging market growth.
To be sure, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re could always be a downside surprise in price levels, for example if growth in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 emerging economies unexpectedly falters. But that is not our expectation at this time.

Longer-Term Outlook
A common argument for ignoring commodity prices when calculating or predicting longer-term measures for inflation is that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se prices “mean revert,” meaning large rises in prices are followed by equally large drops. We think this is true to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 extent that we do not expect continued 80% increases in grain prices like we saw in 2010 or cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 50% rise in oil prices we saw in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first half of 2008. Both those rapid increases in prices were due to special weacá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r-related factors that exacerbated cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fundamental long-term tightening in natural resources that we are living through (although cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y do underline cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 points that supply lines are generally stretched and weacá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r patterns are becoming more volatile). We feel that although commodity prices may show tendencies to revert to a “mean,” cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mean itself is not static, but racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r a moving and, in our opinion, a rising target.

It is not difficult to understand cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reason for our expectations of generally rising commodity prices. It is simply a result of several billion people living in emerging economies that are gaining economic clout and improving cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir standards of living, often in an extremely commodity-intensive way. This generational shift in global consumption patterns leading to a secular rise in commodity prices was temporarily thrown off course by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Great Recession of 2008, but cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 longer-term direction is clear.

Hence, as far as “mean reversion” in commodity prices goes, we would say that “history does not repeat, it rhymes.” Rapid rises are likely to be followed by modest pullbacks; however, five years from today prices are likely to be higher on average than cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are today.

The inflationary impulse from emerging economies is not limited to higher longer-term commodity prices. A combination of too-loose monetary policy (imported from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. via pegged or semi-pegged currencies) and significant rises in food prices (which are a large part of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 consumption baskets) has led to an inflation problem in many emerging market countries already. This is likely to result in some combination of higher wages for workers and an appreciating currency, both of which could result in higher import prices in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. and hence higher inflation for U.S. consumers.

Adding to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se concerns for imported inflation are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 impacts of U.S. monetary and fiscal policy. By now it is well known that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 unprecedented expansion in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Fed’s balance sheet is not inflationary if it does not result in increases in broader money aggregates like M2 or M3, which measure money actually circulating in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy. (M2 includes cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 narrower M1 as well as certain deposits and money market funds. M1 includes cash and checking account deposits. M3 includes M2 and certain large, long-term items.) Our models of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 relationship between money supply and inflation show that a policy error where cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Fed does not shrink its balance sheet in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 face of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 money multiplier returning to its pre-crisis level may result in double-digit inflation with a lag of three years (conversely, shrinking cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir balance sheet too soon may send us back into deflation). The fact that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 emerging economies are no longer a source of disinflation like cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y were over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past 20 years (in fact quite cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 opposite) severely complicates cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Fed’s job. They now have to make an explicit decision to slow down job growth if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y want to fight inflation. In our opinion it is no longer possible to have robust job growth AND low inflation simultaneously.

Finally, we get to our fiscal situation. Our budget deficit is around 10% of GDP and given cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 current trajectory and in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 absence of a surprise economic expansion or political compromise, we estimate our debt-to-GDP ratio will reach around 100% in a few years. There are three ways to solve our debt problem: Growth, Inflation or Default. The choice is clear to us; which one seems most likely to you?

Conclusion Although current inflation numbers and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 near-term inflation outlook appear benign, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re are a number of factors, including higher commodity prices, that lead us to expect higher inflation longer term. Assets typically associated with “real return,” such as commodities, real estate, equities (as long as inflation remains moderate), bonds from countries that offer high real yields, and even Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (as long as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 duration aspect is managed; see previous Viewpoints for suggestions) can serve as inflation hedges.

Libyans Flee As Gadhafi's Hold Over Country Weakens

Libyans Flee As Gadhafi's Hold Over Country Weakens

NPR Staff and WiresFebruary 23, 2011, 2:10 PM
E-mailTweetThe scope of Moammar Gadhafi's control in Libya was whittled away Wednesday as major cities and towns closer to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 capital fell to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rebellion against his rule. In Libya's east, now all but broken away, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 opposition vowed to "liberate" Tripoli, where cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Libyan leader is holed up with a force of militiamen roaming cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 streets.

In a furcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r sign of Gadhafi's faltering hold, two air force pilots — one from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 leader's own tribe — parachuted out of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir warplane and let it crash into cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 deserts of eastern Libya, racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r than follow orders to bomb a opposition-held city.

The opposition reportedly seized control of Misurata, 125 miles east of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 capital Tripoli, after days of fighting. Witnesses said people were honking cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir horns and raising flags representing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 monarchy overthrown by Gadhafi more than 40 years ago.

Misurata would be cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first major city in western Libya to fall to anti-government forces, which claim — with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 help of defecting security forces — to have taken control of nearly cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 entire eastern half of Libya's 1,000-mile Mediterranean coast, including several oil-producing areas.

Faraj al-Misrati, a local doctor in Misurata, said six residents had been killed and 200 wounded since Jan. 18, when protesters attacked offices and buildings affiliated with Gadhafi's regime

Protesters also claimed to have taken over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 eastern city of Tobruk, with people taking to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 streets to vent cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir anger at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 regime. Clashes broke out over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past two days in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 town of Sabratha, west of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 capital, where cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 army and militiamen were trying to put down protesters who overwhelmed security headquarters and government buildings, a news website close to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 government reported.

Independent reporting was scarce in much of Libya, but new opposition videos posted on Facebook showed scores of anti-government protesters raising cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 flag from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pre-Gadhafi monarchy on a building in Zawiya, on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 outskirts of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 capital. Anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r showed protesters lining up cement blocks and setting tires ablaze to fortify positions on a square inside cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 capital.

A provision government was being formed in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 eastern city of Bayda.

"Ordinary people, doctors, lawyers, are talking about how we can coordinate with all ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r cities in Libya who are now under cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 protesters' control," said Ahmed Jibril, a former diplomat at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Libiyan mission at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.N.

International outrage mounted after Gadhafi — in a televised address punctuated by anger and fist-pounding — exhorted his supporters to strike back at anti-government protesters as he pledged never to relinquish power.

He promised to have his supporters go "house to house" to hunt down protesters, whom he described as rats and cockroaches.

Celebratory gunfire from Gadhafi supporters rang out in Tripoli after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 speech, while people in Benghazi threw shoes at a TV screen to show cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir contempt.

Gadhafi's address appeared to have brought out a heavy force of supporters and militiamen that largely prevented major protests in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 capital Tuesday night or Wednesday. Gunfire rang out through cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 night, one woman who lives near downtown told The Associated Press.

"Mercenaries are everywhere with weapons. You can't open a window or door. Snipers hunt people," she said. "We are under siege, at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mercy of a man who is not a Muslim.''

During cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 day Wednesday, more gunfire was heard near Gadhafi's residence, but in many parts of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 city of 2 million, residents were venturing out to stores, some residents said. The government sent out text messages urging people to go back to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir jobs, aiming to show that life was returning to normal. The residents spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation.

Italy's Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said estimates of some 1,000 people killed in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 violence in Libya were "credible," although he stressed that information about casualties was incomplete. The New York-based Human Rights Watch has put cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 death toll at nearly 300, according to a partial count.

As cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fighting in Libya intensified, streams of people continued to flee cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country. The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees said thousands of people have crossed into Tunisia. The initial escapees consisted mostly of Tunisians who had been working in Libya, but more and more Libyans were leaving, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 refugee agency said.

The Tunisian military sent extra troops to its border with Libya. U.N. officials in Tunis told NPR that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 purpose of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reinforcement was mainly to provide humanitarian assistance.

"Situation is not good. It's very bad. It's very bad," said Mohammed Abdu, an Egyptian, who crossed from Libya into Tunisia. "All cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 night, every day, all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 night, we hear, da, da, da–da, da, da. I don't sleep from three days ago."

The Tunisians who were crossing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 border said cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y were singled out for harsh treatment by Gadhafi's police, who blamed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m for starting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 trouble. Two Tunisian men whipped off cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir shirts and showed purple bruises across cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir backs, where cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y said cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y were beaten.

At cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Egyptian border, guards had fled, and local tribal elders formed local committees to take cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir place. "Welcome to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 new Libya," graffiti spray-painted at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 crossing proclaimed. Fawzy Ignashy, a former soldier now in civilian clocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365s at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 border, said that early in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 protests, some commanders ordered troops to fire on protesters, but cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n tribal leaders stepped in and ordered cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m to stop.

"They did because cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y were from here. So cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 officers fled," he said.

More than a dozen countries — including Russia, China, Germany and Ukraine — sent planes to help cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir people escape an increasingly unstable situation.

Hundreds of Americans boarded a 600-passenger ferry at Tripoli's As-shahab port Wednesday for a five-hour crossing of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Mediterranean to Malta. Ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs, such as Kathleen Burnett of Baltimore, Ohio, managed to get a seat on one of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 few flights out of Libya. As she stepped off cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 airplane in Vienna, Burnett described cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 scene she left behind as "total chaos."

"The airport was mobbed; you wouldn't believe cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 number of people," Burnett said.

Britain was chartering flights and positioning a Royal Navy frigate off cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Libyan coast in case it's needed to assist in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 evacuations. Turkey has already pulled out thousands of its citizens by sea and air.

International alarm has risen over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 crisis, pushing oil prices to a 28-month high of $100 a barrel on Wednesday.

"The violence is abhorrent, it is completely unacceptable and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bloodshed must stop," White House spokesman Jay Carney said in Washington.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she's working with ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 international community to help end cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bloodshed, adding everything is on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 table.

"We will look at all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 possible options to try to bring an end to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 violence, to try to influence cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 government," she said.

But State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley seemed to rule out one possibility: a no-fly zone to prevent Libyan planes and helicopters from attacking civilians.

Nonessential U.S. diplomats and families of embassy workers were ordered out of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country Monday, but it took until Wednesday to put 35 of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m on a ferry, along with ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r Americans and foreign nationals.

Crowley said cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ferry was delayed, in part because Libyan authorities had to stamp cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 passports of everyone leaving. He said cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. has also had trouble getting charter flights to Libya.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague, who wouldn't rule out cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 possibility of sending in military flights without permission to evacuate British nationals, expressed deep concern about British oil sector workers who live in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Libyan desert.

"These camps are remote, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are isolated, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are scattered over a large distance, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are dependent for food or water on supplies from Libyan cities that have been severely disrupted by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 violence and unrest and some we know have been subjected to attacks and looting," he said. "They are in a perilous and frightening situation."

The U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting Tuesday that ended with a statement condemning cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 crackdown, expressing "grave concern" and calling for an "immediate end to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 violence" and steps to address cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 legitimate demands of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Libyan people. The U.N. Development Program dropped Gadhafi's daughter, Aisha al-Gadhafi, as a goodwill ambassador Wednesday, citing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 crackdown.

Yemeni Lawmakers Quit Ruling Party

Mass uprisings sparked by successful revolts in Tunisia and Egypt have ratcheted up pressure on governments across Norcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rn Africa and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Middle East.

In Yemen, thousands of people streamed into a square in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 capital, Sanaa, on Wednesday to strengcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n anti-government protesters' hold on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 area after club-wielding government supporters tried to drive cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m out. One person was killed and at least 12 injured in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 clashes late Tuesday near Sanaa University, medics said. A local human rights group said two people were killed and 18 hurt.

In cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 port city of Aden, medics said a 19-year-old man died from injuries during clashes last week. Thirteen demonstrators have been killed since cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 crisis began nearly a month ago.

Seven legislators in President Ali Abdullah Saleh's ruling party resigned from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 group Wednesday, citing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country's precarious political situation. Parliament member Abdul-Aziz Jabbari said cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y planned to form cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir own independent bloc. With cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest resignations, nine legislators have quit Saleh's Congress Party since protests began earlier this month.

U.S.-backed Saleh, who has held power for 32 years, has said he will step down after national elections are held in 2013. But a widening protest movement demands that he leave office now.


Kings Of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia Discuss Unrest


Across cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Arabian Peninsula, in Bahrain, thousands of anti-government protesters marched in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 capital Wednesday after King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa freed at least 100 political prisoners, an acknowledgment of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mounting pressure being placed on him by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Shiite opposition.

Tens of thousands of protesters have flooded cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 tiny kingdom's capital, Manama, calling for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fall of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Sunni dynasty that rules majority-Shiite Bahrain. There are concerns that Bahrain's uprising, now in its second week, could spread to Saudi Arabia, which also has a significant Shiite population that has long complained of oppression by Sunni rulers.

Al-Khalifa was in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to discuss cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 popular uprisings with his royal counterpart, King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz, according to state media.

Abdullah had just returned home after three months of medical treatment to face a country that has been dramatically changed by revolutions sweeping cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Middle East. More than ever before, Saudis are publicly calling for political reforms, on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Web, in Facebook groups and in political forums across cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country.

Ahead of his arrival in Riyadh, Abdullah announced a hefty package of giveaways including unemployment benefits and billions to help Saudis buy homes.

Global Unrest Puts Stocks in a Dive

Global Unrest Puts Stocks in a Dive

By KRISTINA PETERSON

NEW YORK—The stock market plummeted Tuesday in its biggest drop of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 year as escalating tensions in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Middle East and North Africa sent oil prices soaring.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 178.46 points, or 1.4%, to 12212.79, its biggest point and percentage drop since Nov. 16.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 27.57, or 2.1%, to 1315.44, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 measure's biggest point and percentage drop since Aug. 11, 2010.

Oil Prices Spiked and Stocks Tumbled on concerns about Libya, after that nation closed its ports blocking oil exports. Paul Vigna has details. Plus, Gadhafi speaks and how cell phone usage affects your brain.

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Brent rose and U.S. crude oil reached a 2-1/2 year high on concerns cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 revolt in Libya could spread to ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r major oil producers as companies suspended operations and ports were disrupted. Video courtesy of Reuters.
.Wal-Mart Stores weighed on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Dow, sliding $1.71, or 3.1%, to $53.67, after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 retailer's fiscal fourth-quarter profit rose 27%, capitalizing on strength in its international business, but its U.S. operations continued to struggle. Wal-Mart posted its seventh consecutive quarter of lower U.S. same-store sales, and fourth-quarter revenue fell short of analysts' expectations.

Bank of America fell 57 cents, or 3.9%, to 14.18, after saying its credit-card subsidiary was restating eight quarters of reports to regulators because it took a $20.3 billion write-down because of deteriorating credit and new regulations over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past two years. Alcoa was also weak, tumbling 74 cents, or 4.3%, to 16.54.

Energy components were among cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 measure's few stocks to gain Tuesday, as oil prices surged. Chevron gained 1.60, or 1.6%, to 100.32, while Exxon Mobil rose 94 cents, or 1.1%, to 85.44.

The Nasdaq Composite sank 77.53 points, or 2.7% to 2756.42.

Global stock markets tumbled Tuesday as violence increased in Libya, a major oil-producing state. Libyan leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi publicly defied protesters seeking to end his rule, vowing to remain in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country "until cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end" in a televised speech that showed his determination to cling to power Tuesday, as reinforcements of loyal armed military units tightened cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir hold around cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 capital. Libyan traders said cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country had shut all ports, which would reopen in two to three days.

U.S. markets had been closed Monday for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Presidents Day holiday. Crude-oil prices jumped as unease over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 turmoil in Libya and parts of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Middle East mounted. Libya produces 1.8 million barrels of oil daily, and its 41 billion barrels of proven reserves represent more than 3% of global supplies. Nymex oil prices for March delivery surged 8.6% over Friday's close, adding $7.37 a barrel in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 biggest one-day dollar gain in more than two years.

.Investors said cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stock market had been ready for a correction, as major stock indexes had climbed steadily to reach 2½-year highs on Friday. The geopolitical tensions in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Middle East and North Africa gave nervous traders reason to retreat, said Liz Miller, president of Summit Place Financial Advisors.

"The unrest in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Middle East has ended up to be that trigger, but any number of things could've been that trigger," she said. She cautioned that, if oil prices do remain elevated, "that's a real concern in an economy that seemed to be gaining some strength."

But Tuesday's tumble came as a relief to some participants unnerved by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market's recent unrelenting climb, even in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 face of earlier unrest in Egypt.

"When cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market starts shrugging off geopolitical issues and ignoring it completely, it's cause for concern," said Jennifer Ellison, principal at Bingham, Osborn & Scarborough. "It's a positive that we're getting some sort of reality check in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market here."

Asian markets suffered sharp losses, also hurt by a major earthquake in New Zealand and a move by Moody's Investors Service to cut cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 outlook on Japan's "Aa2" rating to "negative" from "stable."

More
Oil Rises 8.6% on Libya Violence
'Fear Gauge' Shows Most Worry in Months
.Demand for Treasurys climbed, sending yield on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 10-year note down to 3.465%. The dollar strengcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ned against cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 euro but weakened against cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 yen. The euro was at $1.3655, down from $1.3675 late Monday.

Volatility jumped, as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 CBOE Market Volatility Index surged more than 30% at its highest point in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 day, its biggest one-day climb of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 year.

Among stocks in focus, Home Depot slipped 39 cents, or 1%, to 38.09, even after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 home-improvement chain's fourth-quarter profit climbed 72% from year-earlier levels, boosted by heavy demand for snow-removal gear. Home Depot provided 2011 guidance at or above cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 views it gave in December and boosted its dividend by nearly 6% while reiterating its goal to raise cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 payout every year.

Mentor Graphics climbed 95 cents, or 6.5%, to 15.47, after billionaire investor Carl Icahn offered to buy cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 chip-design software company for $1.91 billion.


Reuters

World stocks fell Tuesday as a growing revolt in Libya drove oil prices to 30-month highs.
.Dynegy lost 12 cents, or 2%, to 5.89, after it announced that Chief Executive Bruce Williamson will resign and named David Biegler interim CEO.

Forest Laboratories fell 1.43, or 4.2%, to 32.90, after saying it will buy Clinical Data for at least $898.7 million, as it looks to capitalize on Clinical Data's newly approved Viibryd antidepressant drug. Shares of Clinical Data tumbled 2.69, or 7.9%, to 31.21.

In U.S. economic data, a reading of U.S. consumer confidence hit a three-year high, reaching 70.4 in February, well above cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 66 expected by economists. The S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index fell 2.4% year-over-year, slightly more than cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 2% drop economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond saw mixed economic activity.

Write to Kristina Peterson at kristina.peterson@wsj.com

BNY Mellon Faces Forex Suit in New York

BNY Mellon Faces Forex Suit in New York

By CARRICK MOLLENKAMP And LINGLING WEI

Bank of New York Mellon Corp., facing whistle-blower lawsuits in Virginia and Florida that it improperly charged pension funds for currency transactions, also has been sued in New York, according to New York County court records.

The New York case, filed by a plaintiff called FX Analytics in October 2009, is under seal and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 specific allegations aren't public. A spokesman for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 New York State Comptroller's office, which oversees cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 state's $141 billion Common Retirement Fund, declined to comment. A spokesman for New York attorney general said "we can't comment on potential or ongoing matters before our office."

FX Analytics is a Delaware partnership that is being used to hide cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 identity of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 whistle-blowers, according to a person familiar with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 situation. A plaintiff by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same name filed whistle-blower claims in Virginia and Florida, also in October 2009, against BNY Mellon on behalf of state and local retirement systems.

The lawsuits are part of a growing number of legal cases being brought against BNY Mellon and State Street Corp. relating to foreign-exchange transactions. A whistle-blower, or qui tam, lawsuit can be brought by an individual or group on behalf of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 government, alleging fraudulent activity involving government funds. The government has an option to join cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 case. Documents are initially filed under seal pending cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 outcome of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 case.

State Street and BNY Mellon, two of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 nation's largest custody banks by global assets, have denied cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 claims and say cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y will fight cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 lawsuits. The banks act as custodians for investment firms' securities, handling a number of tasks, including currency trades and back-office work, for institutional investors.

In cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 suits filed in courts in Fairfax County, Va., and Leon County, Fla., FX Analytics alleges that BNY Mellon profited by pocketing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 difference between its cost of currency transactions and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cost it charged to state and local pension funds.

In recent weeks, Virginia's attorney general intervened in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 whistle-blower lawsuit against BNY Mellon and Florida's attorney general filed a court document to also intervene in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 whistle-blower law suit against BNY Mellon. Both lawsuits allege cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 custody bank improperly charged for foreign exchange.

An Arkansas public pension fund sued State Street in Massachusetts federal court earlier this month in a similar claim. The cases mirror one brought by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 California attorney general in 2009 against State Street.

In Virginia, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 attorney general earlier this month issued a request-for-proposal to hire outside counsel to assist in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 legal case against BNY Mellon. According to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 attorney general's office on Feb. 4 issued a request for proposals from law firms to assist Virginia on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 case. According to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 document, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 firm that is hired "will be appointed as special counsel to represent cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Commonwealth."

Proposals were due Feb. 15. A spokesman for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 attorney general's office said a law firm hasn't yet been hired.

The proposal requests that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 firm "have knowledge of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 principles of contract, banking, and agency law, and foreign currency exchange in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 context of a custodial relationship between a bank and its pension customers."

Write to Carrick Mollenkamp at carrick.mollenkamp@wsj.com and Lingling Wei at lingling.wei@wsj.com

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Silver Climbs Near 31-Year High

Silver Climbs Near 31-Year High

Silver prices neared 31-year highs on a brightening outlook for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 global economy and as inflation concerns have revived.
Silver for February delivery rose 72.6 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $32.2980 a troy ounce on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Comex division of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 New York Mercantile Exchange. It was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 metal's strongest close since March 1980.
Bloomberg News
The price of silver has increased 5.3% since cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 beginning of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 year, while cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price of gold has declined 2.4%.
"It's benefiting from optimism," said Ralph Preston, market analyst at Heritage West Financial.
Silver is a precious metal but unlike gold it has far more industrial applications. Because it is significantly cheaper than gold, which settled at $1,388.20 an ounce Friday, silver is becoming a popular way to hedge against rising prices, with inflation gaining in Europe and China. While inflation in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. remains tame, some believe cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Federal Reserve won't be able to control longer-term price pressures stemming from ultralow interest rates and Fed purchases of Treasurys to stimulate cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy.
[SILVER]
At cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same time, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economic growth that is sparking inflation fears also is prompting a resurgence in manufacturing and consumer purchases.
Silver has gained 4.5% this year and 20% from a two-month low hit Jan. 25. In 1980, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Hunt brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs of Texas attempted to corner cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 silver market and pushed prices above $40 a troy ounce.
"It's a much more orderly market" nowadays, said Stephen Flood, director of Dublin-based bullion dealer GoldCore.
Commercial traders, like silver miners, have been adding to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir short positions in futures contracts throughout February, a sign cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are locking in prices. The commercial net short has risen to 50,796 lots in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 week ended Feb. 15, from 44,340 lots at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 start of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 month, according to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest data from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Mexican company Minera Frisco SAB is hedging production as it seeks to bring previously unprofitable silver projects online, while miners such as Sweden's Boliden AB and U.S. Silver Corp. also set hedging deals for 2011.
The practice of locking in prices at current levels for future sales went out of vogue over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past few years as investors put pressure on precious-metal producers to gain more exposure to record prices. AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. and Barrick Gold Corp. spent much of 2009 and 2010 closing gold hedges.
Minera Frisco, recently spun off by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim's conglomerate Grupo Carso, has a 70-million ounce silver-hedging program booked out to 2013 that it announced in January in a stock-exchange filing.
Boliden has 2.23 million ounces of silver hedged for 2011 and a total 6.78 million ounces hedged for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 period to 2013 as part of its Garpenberg mine expansion. It also is hedging zinc, copper, lead and gold production from that mine, it said. U.S. Silver Corp. is hedging some silver production in 2011, for 500,000 ounces, or 20% of its output, although it has no plans to hedge furcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r production after this year.
"With cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 recent run-up in silver prices and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 extreme volatility we have witnessed, U.S. Silver believed it would be prudent to guarantee a portion of our future cash flow," Chief Executive Tom Parker said.
—Andrea Hotter and Tatyana Shumsky contributed to this article. Write to Matt Whittaker at matt.whittaker@dowjones.com and Devon Maylie at devon.maylie@dowjones.com

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Swiss Franc Captures Safety Bids

Swiss Franc Captures Safety Bids

By NEIL SHAH

NEW YORK—The dollar weakened broadly, as initial optimism from encouraging U.S. data was overshadowed by geopolitical jitters that favored such safe harbors as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Swiss franc.

Still, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. currency pared its losses late as minutes of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting showed central bankers were getting rosier about cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy in January.

The U.K. pound briefly plunged after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bank of England's latest quarterly report on inflation suggested that U.K. central bankers aren't ready to start raising interest rates to combat persistently high inflation. Higher rates can lift a currency's value if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y aren't seen as hurting an economy.

But by late afternoon in New York, sterling had recovered to $1.6096, after touching $1.5988, though it still was down from $1.6124 late Tuesday. The euro strengcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ned to $1.3570 from $1.3482 and to 113.44 yen from 113.01 yen. The dollar moved to 83.58 yen from 83.82 yen. The dollar weakened to 0.9593 Swiss franc from 0.9673 franc, after hitting 0.9555 franc.

The dollar got off to a strong start after data on housing starts and producer prices painted an improving picture of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. economy. But it reversed course after reports that Iranian warships were planning to head for Egypt's Suez Canal, which sparked a response from Israel. That spurred investors to seek refuge in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Swiss franc, a favored safe harbor in times of global upheaval.

The dollar recouped some of its losses in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 afternoon on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 upgraded Fed economic forecast for 2011, which sparked expectations that, while still far off, higher U.S. interest rates eventually could be in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cards.

"The market is starting to anticipate Fed action sooner racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r than later," said Jessica Hoverson, fixed-income and foreign-exchange analyst at MF Global in Chicago.

Fed officials were becoming slightly more optimistic about cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. economy when cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y met three weeks ago, but still were unwilling to stop cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir $600 billion bond-buying program before cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 scheduled end in June. Officials expect U.S. gross domestic product to rise 3.4% to 3.9% this year.

"It has been an unusually choppy session," said Marc Chandler, a currency analyst at Brown Brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs Harriman in New York, in a note. "One signal that we have found fairly reliable are interest rate spreads, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are moving in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. direction."

Across cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Atlantic, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.K. pound plunged to below $1.60 after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bank of England's latest inflation report, along with public comments by central bank governor Mervyn King and discouraging labor market data, threw cold water on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 notion that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.K. central bank could start raising rates in May. A day earlier, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pound rallied after data showed Britain's inflation rate had jumped to an annual 4% in January, double cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 central bank's medium-term target of 2%.

Inflation concerns are likely to stay front and center on Thursday, when cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. reports its own data on consumer prices. "Everyone is focusing on inflation and how central banks respond," says MF Global's Ms. Hoverson.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Earnings Call Puts Deere in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Headlights

Earnings Call Puts Deere in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Headlights

Shares of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 175-year-old machinery giant have quadrupled since bottoming nearly two years ago during cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 financial crisis. This year alone, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are up about 14% and have reached an all-time high.
[AOT]
That is largely because of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 farming boom spurred by record prices for crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat.
Indeed, surging demand for farm equipment is expected to give a substantial boost to fiscal-first-quarter results due Wednesday. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect earnings of 99 cents a share for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 January quarter, up from 57 cents a year earlier. Revenue is seen up 33% to about $5.7 billion.
And cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 run could continue, for a time. Amid a global supply squeeze for many crops, farming has suddenly become one of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 hottest sectors. The U.S. Department of Agriculture just raised its 2011 farm-income forecast to about $95 billion, up 20% from last year and about 40% above cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past decade's average.
Like any boom, however, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 longer it lasts, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 greater cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 risks. Any pullback in crop prices as supply catches up with demand will likely affect Deere shares.
Meanwhile, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re are ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r concerns.
Higher emission standards in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. starting in 2012 and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 smaller scale of farms in foreign markets will potentially turn customer demand toward Deere's smaller, less-profitable machines. That, plus rising raw-materials costs, is expected to keep a lid on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company's operating margin this year, according to Jefferies & Co.
With that in mind, Deere also may strike a cautious note in its forward guidance Wednesday. Last week, rival AGCO Corp. said its own fourth-quarter profit more than doubled but warned of margin pressure in 2011.
Deere shares aren't wildly expensive, trading at about 17 times estimated 2011 earnings, compared with an average forward multiple over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past 10 years of 15.2 times, according to FactSet.
The big concern—both for Deere investors and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 global economy—is crop prices.
At some point cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y will turn, probably hitting Deere's shares hard. So while investors may be content to make hay while cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sun shines, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y should keep a sharp eye out for storm clouds.
Write to Kelly Evans at kelly.evans@wsj.com

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

How Star Investors Bet Last Quarter

How Star Investors Bet Last Quarter

Text High-profile money managers and investors zigged and zagged during cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest period, with a host of bank bets made or folded and with one investor tripling his stake in Comcast Corp. and anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r exiting from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cable company entirely.

Four times a year, many investors who manage more than $100 million are required to disclose holdings in certain types of securities, including stocks, within 45 days of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of a given quarter.

Most hedge-fund managers and ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs wait until cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last possible moment to make cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se filings, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 disclosures to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Securities and Exchange Commission cover cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 quarter ending Dec. 31.

The so-called 13F disclosures give cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 public a relatively fresh look inside cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 portfolios of major money managers such as Trian Capital's Nelson Peltz, SAC Capital Advisors' Steven Cohen and Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett. They are often cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 investing public's first notice that closely watched figures have reversed course on a given sector or major company.


Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. eliminated positions in several stocks in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter, including Bank of America Corp., Nike Inc. and Fiserv Inc., as one of its longtime investment managers retired.

Berkshire also sold all its shares of Becton Dickinson & Co., Comcast Corp., Fiserv Inc., Lowe's Cos., Nalco Holding Co. and American depository receipts of Nestlé SA, according to a regulatory filing Monday.

Each of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 positions Berkshire exited from appeared to be holdings of car insurer Geico Corp., a subsidiary whose portfolio was long managed by Louis Simpson, who retired from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company late last year. Mr. Simpson, who is in his 70s, worked at Geico for more than 30 years and had autonomy over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 subsidiary's $4 billion stock portfolio.

The shares of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 companies eliminated from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Berkshire portfolio in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last three months of 2010 had been worth about $1.2 billion at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 third quarter.

The stock sales are part of a passing of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 guard to Todd Combs, a former hedge-fund manager who is taking over a portion of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 investment duties at Berkshire. The 40-year-old Mr. Combs, who recently joined Berkshire as an investment manager, is expected to get $2 billion to $3 billion to invest initially.

Berkshire's $52.6 billion U.S. equity portfolio now includes just 25 companies, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fewest in several years. At cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 third quarter, Berkshire held $48.6 billion in stocks after exiting from investments in firms including CarMax Inc., Home Depot Inc. and NRG Energy Inc., stocks that were in Geico's accounts.

The fourth-quarter increase in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 size of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 portfolio reflects substantial increases in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 value of major holdings, including Wells Fargo & Co. and Coca-Cola Co.

Berkshire added to its holdings of Wells Fargo, its only addition to its giant portfolio in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter. The stake rose about 1.8% to 342.6 million shares when calculated according to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Securities and Exchange Commission rules that govern cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 quarterly disclosure. Berkshire is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 San Francisco bank's largest shareholder.

A separate filing late Monday showed that Berkshire and Mr. Buffett togecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r owned 369.2 million shares as of Dec. 31. That figure appeared to include 10.9 million shares held by Mr. Buffett directly and stock owned by its employee benefit plans and subsidiaries not included in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r filing. Those holdings constitute 7% of Wells Fargo's outstanding shares.

Omaha, Neb.-based Berkshire reduced holdings of Bank of New York Mellon Corp. and Moody's Corp. Its Bank of New York stake fell 10% to 1.79 million shares, while Moody's declined 1.6% to 28.4 million. The sale of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Moody's shares was first disclosed in October.

Mr. Buffett's company, like ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r firms that control an investment portfolio of more than $100 million, is required to report its U.S. stock holdings 45 days after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of a given quarter, giving cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 public its freshest possible glimpse at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 investing decisions of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "Oracle of Omaha." The filing with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Securities and Exchange Commission is scrutinized by professional money managers and amateur investors alike, and Mr. Buffett's stock picks have cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 power to move cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 shares of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 companies he's buying and selling.

But Mr. Buffett, Berkshire's chairman and chief executive, has long warned investors who want to piggyback on his stock picks that not all moves in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 portfolio are his. While some of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company's investment decisions in past quarters have been Mr. Simpson's, now Mr. Combs will be managing a portion of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 portfolio.

Mr. Combs, tapped for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 job in October, was formerly a little-known hedge fund manager of a Connecticut hedge fund called Castle Point.

Berkshire's stakes in American Express Co., Coca-Cola and Kraft Foods Inc. remained unchanged. Mr. Buffett's firm appeared to remain cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 largest shareholder in each, though ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r money managers were also reporting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 contents of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir portfolios after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 close of trading Monday, making an exact determination difficult.

—Erik Holm and Serena Ng
Steven Cohen
Investor Steven Cohen's SAC Capital Advisors LP, which has been wrestling with fallout from an insider-trading investigation, reported that it doubled its stake in Sprint Nextel Corp. in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter and also loaded up on shares of Time Warner Inc., Comcast Corp. and DirecTV Group Inc.

SAC reported 1,843 holdings at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of December, excluding exemptions. That is down from 1,871 at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of September, though cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 portfolio gained value over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 intervening months, ending December at $15 billion, up from $12.8 billion at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of September.

Its holdings of Sprint jumped to 22.2 million shares, valued at about $101 million at Monday's closing price, from 11.8 million shares at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 third quarter.

In addition to Sprint, SAC substantially increased its stake in Time Warner, to 1,988,888 shares, valued at about $69.5 million at Monday's closing price, from 29,628 shares. Mr. Cohen also more than tripled his stake in Comcast, to 3.89 million shares, valued about $89.5 million, from a total of 1.04 million shares over two share classes.

He also loaded up on DirecTV, reporting 2.7 million shares, up from 11,651 at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of September, worth about $116 million.

SAC Capital also reported a stake of 629,235 shares in Advanced Micro Devices Inc.); it had no stake in AMD at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 third quarter.

While adding to his positions in TV providers, he was unloading shares of BJ's Wholesale Club Inc., reducing his stake by 463,903 shares, to 1.1 million shares.

Mr. Cohen and his closely watched hedge fund have drawn scrutiny in recent months. Last week, two of SAC's former employees were ensnared in an ongoing federal probe of insider trading. A spokesman for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fund said last week cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 firm is "outraged" by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 former employees' alleged actions and that it was cooperating in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 investigation.

—Liz Moyer
David Tepper
Appaloosa Management LP, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 New Jersey hedge fund run by investor David Tepper, increased its bets on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 four biggest U.S. banks during cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter and now holds more than $1.23 billion combined in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 banks, according to a filing with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Securities and Exchange Commission.

Among its moves, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fund more than doubled its stake in Citigroup Inc. to more than 117 million shares, a holding that at Monday's closing price would be valued at $576.9 million.

The fund also reported a new stake in J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. valued at $25.2 million. Its stake in Bank of America Corp. rose 12% to 25.1 million shares, a value of $373.3 million, while its stake in Wells Fargo & Co. rose to 7.5 million common shares from 6.4 million and 335,482 preferred shares from 292,019. The common stake in Wells Fargo would be valued at $252.7 million at Monday's close.

The fund also boosted its stake in SunTrust Banks Inc. by 8.9% to 4.2 million, valued at $135.6 million and slightly raised its holdings in American Depositary Receipts of Spain's Banco Santander SA.

The fund trimmed its holdings in Fifth Third Bancorp by 8.4% to 9.5 million shares valued at $146.8 million. It also cut its stake in Capital One Financial Corp. common shares to 1.03 million, or $54.1 million, from 1.43 million shares.

Mr. Tepper specializes in distressed-debt investing and manages around $16 billion. He had a strong year in 2010 after turning optimistic about U.S. stocks before many hedge-fund rivals. According to a Wall Street Journal report, he made between $2 billion and $3 billion personally last year.

Mr. Tepper correctly anticipated cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Federal Reserve's recent efforts to boost cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy, steps that have helped cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market rally. The increased stake in Citi follows a highly publicized Citi investment by John Paulson of Paulson & Co., who took an early bet on Citi.

Among his ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r big moves for Appaloosa's quarter were increasing to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 holdings in various airline carriers, as well as an already reported increase to Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.

Many investors who manage more than $100 million are required to disclose most securities holdings within a month and a half of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of a quarter. The filings give cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 public a relatively fresh look at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 portfolios of well-known investors.

—David Benoit
Nelson Peltz
Investor Nelson Peltz's Trian Capital Corp. took on 2.8 million shares of Kellogg Co. during cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter while dumping shares of Bank of America Corp., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and U.S. Bancorp, according to securities filings Monday.

Mr. Peltz, who is well-known for his investments in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 food and beverage sector, also sold his holdings of Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. In cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 third quarter, he held 1.4 million shares of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 beverage maker, spread out over two of his funds.

The Kellogg stake was spread over three of his funds, according to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 securities filings on Monday, which report holdings as of Dec. 31. Mr. Peltz said in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 filings that confidential information was filed separately with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Securities and Exchange Commission; such confidential treatment allows him to withhold information about some investments.

His stakes in Wendys Arbys Group Inc. and H.J. Heinz Co. stayed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same. He increased his holding of Family Dollar Stores Inc. in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter by 113,400 shares.

Mr. Peltz reported holding 2.9 million shares of Bank of America at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 third quarter, but reported no holdings of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stock at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of December. Likewise, a previous 550,000-share stake in J.P. Morgan wasn't reported in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 December-end filing. He also reported no holdings of U.S. Bancorp, in which he held 1.68 million shares at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 third quarter.

—Liz Moyer
FrontPoint Partners
FrontPoint Partners, which late last year got caught up in an insider-trading probe related to a clinical drug trial, bought new stakes in Seagate Technology Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and dumped some health-care stocks, according to a securities filing Monday.

FrontPoint reported new stakes of 1.1 million shares of Seagate and about half a million shares of J.P. Morgan during cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter. Its new stakes in Seagate Technology and J.P. Morgan are valued at about $15.2 million and more than $24 million, respectively, as of Friday's close.

The Greenwich, Conn.-based hedge-fund firm, which is owned by Morgan Stanley, has been wrestling with fallout from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 insider-trading probe for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past several months. The firm is also facing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 possible departure of high-profile hedge-fund manager Steve Eisman, whose profitable 2007 bet that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 housing market would collapse was chronicled in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 book "The Big Short." The Wall Street Journal last month reported that Mr. Eisman was considering leaving.

In early November, prosecutors accused a French doctor of illegally alerting a fund manager with insider information about a clinical drug trial. FrontPoint has laid off cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 manager, Joseph F. Skowron III, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rest of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 health-care team. Morgan Stanley and FrontPoint have said cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are cooperating with authorities and that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y haven't been accused of wrongdoing.

Because of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 probe, FrontPoint shed stakes in health-care stocks during cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter as it liquidated its health-care funds. Among cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 health-care positions eliminated were 1.9 million shares of GlaxoSmithKline PLC and 1.3 million shares of Aetna Inc.

It also disclosed it eliminated its positions in MasterCard Inc. and Visa Inc.

Morgan Stanley said in October that it planned to spin off FrontPoint. As part of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 agreement, which was expected to close in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter, FrontPoint's senior management and portfolio managers would own a majority equity stake. The insider-trading probe sent cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 plan into disarray.

—Corrie Driebusch

Monday, February 14, 2011

Threat Builds on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Margins

Threat Builds on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Margins

By JONATHAN CHENG

This earnings season has seen a much-welcomed return to revenue growth, giving investors anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r reason to push stocks to two-year highs.

But beneath cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 surface lurks a fresh worry: For many companies, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cost of raw materials is rising at a faster pace than revenue. Blame it on soaring prices of everything from cotton to copper and corn. That has squeezed profit margins more markedly than many analysts anticipated—and is serving as a worrying sign for future earnings.


Bloomberg News

Harvested corn is loaded onto a truck in Ines Indart, Agentina, on Monday, April 5, 2010. Before April 20, corn declined 14 percent this year on forecasts for production to rise in Brazil and Argentina, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 biggest exporters behind cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. Photographer: Diego Giudice/Bloomberg
.Procter & Gamble, Ford Motor and Kraft Foods are among dozens of companies that reported lower profit margins for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter of 2010 compared with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 third quarter. Their stocks were punished by investors, even as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 companies' profit and revenue exceeded analyst forecasts. The cool reception stood in contrast to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 general optimism among investors that has helped cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Dow Jones Industrial Average to gain about 6% this year.

About three-quarters of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 companies in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Standard & Poor's 500-stock index have reported cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir earnings so far. Some 25% of those companies have posted lower margins in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest quarter, according to Morgan Stanley. S&P says operating margins for S&P 500 companies in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest quarter have come in at 8.69%, down from margins of 8.95% for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500 in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 third quarter.

"I think this quarter was a wake-up call. We're seeing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se stocks get hit on margins and sell off dramatically," said Erin Browne, director of global macro trading at Citigroup. "It's definitely picking up steam and becoming much more on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 tops of investors' minds, and it's only going to continue as we move through 2011."

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.While some of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se costs can be passed on to customers, many companies have been unable to increase cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir own prices. The economic recovery is just gaining steam, unemployment remains high, and consumers are keeping a tight rein on spending.

Some worry that many analysts aren't taking cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 lower margins into account and are overestimating future profit margins. Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist, says consensus earnings estimates for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rest of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 year imply that analysts continue to see margins expanding. That leaves plenty of room for disappointment if rising commodity prices bite deeply into companies' margins.

"Some analysts may be guilty of 'over-extrapolating' cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 recent margin improvements into cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir forward outlooks," and companies that fail to meet cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se heightened expectations may find cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365mselves punished by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market, Mr. Parker warned in a recent note to clients.

Kraft reported a 30% rise in revenue on Thursday. But cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company said higher costs for meat, packaging and ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r raw materials sliced $500 million from net income, which cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company reported at $540 million. The shares fell about 2% after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 earnings were released. Procter & Gamble blamed higher commodity prices for crimping margins and said higher costs will lower annual earnings by about $1 billion. Since its earnings on Jan. 27, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 shares are down 2.1%, compared with a gain in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500 of 2.5%. Ford shares are down 13% since Jan. 28, when cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 auto maker reported that rising costs of commodities such as steel and oil helped drag down its fourth-quarter profit.

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Getty Images

Ford Motor is among dozens of companies that reported lower profit margins for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter of 2010.
.Companies that are dependent on raw materials to produce cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir goods are going to feel cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 biggest pinch, like Procter & Gamble and Ford, said Charles Blood, market strategist at Brown Brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs Harriman. But energy and materials companies are benefiting.

Citigroup's Ms. Browne recommends investors buy energy and agricultural stocks that benefit from higher commodity prices. Among her recommendations are Exxon Mobil, Peabody Energy and Monsanto. She says investors should avoid—or even bet against—consumer staples and consumer discretionary stocks that have to absorb or can't pass along cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se higher input costs in slack consumer times. On her list: General Mills, Kimberly-Clark and Kraft. Ms. Browne said that while cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365me began to emerge in third-quarter earnings, "concern regarding input costs picked up materially during fourth-quarter earnings" as more and more companies reported lower margins.

The pinched margins put a damper on an earnings season that has finally delivered on revenues, which have come in much stronger than analysts have expected, in part because demand picked up faster than anticipated.

During cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 downturn, U.S. companies aggressively cut costs and improved productivity, allowing many of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m to churn out profits even as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 weak economy kept sales muted. But investors were worried that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cost-cutting would have its limits, and that longer-term growth could really only be sustained by revenue growth.

According to Brown Brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs Harriman, 71% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten revenue expectations this earnings season, compared with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 usual rate of about 60%. Revenue has grown an average of 9.8% in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter, significantly outpacing estimates of 3.8% growth.

"It tells me that end demand is stronger than what analysts had expected, and that's a very healthy sign that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re's more to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 profits recovery than just cost-cutting," says Priya Hariani, U.S. equity strategist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Ms. Hariani says she is unfazed by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 shrinking margins, adding that worries are being stoked by "a handful of companies making headlines." She says current margins are sustainable. Interest rates are low, as are corporate borrowings and corporate-tax rates, she says.

While wages have started rising—up 0.4% in January, according to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Labor Department—cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y remain low, she notes. And large swaths of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500 are commodity producers, which benefit as commodity prices rise.

"There are some pockets of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500 that get pressured, including retailers and food-product companies, but net-net, S&P 500 commodity input costs are low," she says. "What I think this will do is, you won't see cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same rapid pace of margin expansion, but it doesn't mean we'll see any meaningful margin contraction."

Goodyear Tire & Rubber still managed to please investors worried about profit margins. The tire-maker posted a loss, but saw its stock jump 14% after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company said it would ramp up production and is ready for 25% to 30% increases in raw-material costs, including for natural rubber.

"Higher raw-material prices are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 most significant challenge facing our industry today," Goodyear Chief Executive Richard Kramer said. "Commodity prices that were already high continue to increase." While Goodyear sold cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same number of tires in North America in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter as in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 year-earlier quarter, sales were up 17% as consumers continued to buy Goodyear's more expensive tires.

Write to Jonathan Cheng at jonathan.cheng@wsj.com

高盛欺诈中国真相:挂羊头却卖狗肉 套保忽悠人

高盛欺诈中国真相:挂羊头却卖狗肉 套保忽悠人
手机免费访问 www.cnfol.com 2011年02月14日 13:44 第一财经日报 张晓东
  2009年初,我国B航空公司、S航空公司和中国某海洋运输公司分别公布了在石油和远洋运输指数的衍生品交易上发生了巨额亏损,亏损额依次为68亿元、62亿元和50亿元,举国哗然。国资委在2008年11月紧急叫停了央企衍生品交易,要求企业查明原因,采取应对措施。

  对于如此巨额亏损,上述几家公司都归结于国际金融危机。但是,其他国家或地区的同类公司却并没有发生类似的情况。实际情况是,中国上述几家公司都在金融衍生品市场上,被高盛等国际投行欺诈了。这是一些国内企业不敢承认也不愿承认的事实。

  作为一名金融从业人员,笔者对“欺诈”一词的使用非常谨慎,这是一个具有法律含义的词语。但通过对衍生品合约的解剖,通过一系列谈判和接触,笔者可以明确使用“欺诈”一词。名义上是套期保值产品,但实际上套期保值的功能微乎其微,其结构陷阱甚至让产品连投机功能都没有。

  国资委原副主任李伟先生在中央党校《学习时报》的一篇署名文章中,也曾使用了“欺诈”一词。他指出,截至2008年10月底,这68家企业从事金融衍生品业务合约市值为1250亿元人民币,形成了114亿元人民币的浮动净亏损。这些企业所遭受巨额亏损,“与国际投行恶意兜售带有欺诈性的、设计复杂的高杠杆产品有很大的关系”。

  在本文中,笔者将以S航空公司为案例,对这种“欺诈”进行详细解剖,将真相揭开。这很具有意义,中资公司在衍生品市场的巨亏第一笔是2004年中航油(新加坡)5.5亿美元的亏损,但其原因并没有被真正了解,这导致4年之后被用同样的手法、同样的金融产品在2008年从中国企业身上攫取了更多利润。一个细节是,高盛在新加坡的全资公司杰润公司,是2004年中航油新加坡公司的主要交易对手,杰润公司同样是2008年这一轮多家央企衍生品亏损的主要对手,以某航空公司为例,金融产品和中航油亏损的金融产品也是同样一致的产品。

  走样的套期保值

  S航空公司在此次衍生品亏损中亏损额达到62亿元,2008年末净资产为负的116亿元,如果没有国家支持,就破产倒闭了。

  从2003年开始,S航空公司同高盛进行石油的衍生产品交易,主要目的是对冲因石油价格上涨而导致的公司航空燃料购买成本的增加,即所谓的套期保值。

  开始阶段,从2003年到2005年,交易工具是简单的期权和简单的互换,没有复合期权等复杂的工具。合约的交易量也比较小,每月1万桶左右。这个阶段可以看作是企业的摸索阶段。这期间所做的交易基本符合石油套期保值的要求。

  从2005年开始,S航空公司通过衍生品进行石油套期保值的交易量有所放大,不过增加的幅度不是很大。但是,从2008年6月开始,S航空公司签订的石油衍生品合约的交易量急剧放大,从每年的几十万桶激增到每年上千万桶。就在这些合约签订后不到3个月的时间里,石油价格从146美元/桶迅速下跌,最低到33美元/桶。合约亏损迅速放大。

  高盛等卖给航空公司的衍生品合约有两大类:TARN和Extendible 3-Ways.TARN的全名叫Target Accrue Redemption Note中文翻译为目标累计赎回合约;Extendible 3-Ways的中文翻译为展期三项式。这两类合约都是非常少见、非常复杂的多种衍生产品的组合,可以说是专门为中国公司定制的。这两个产品没有套期保值功能,没有投资价值,在美国和欧洲市场是违法的产品,是纯粹的欺诈性金融工具,是陷阱。

  这里有几个问题让人迷惑。第一,为什么恰恰在石油价格暴跌前,中国的航空公司突然增加了看多的交易量,从每年几十万桶暴增几十倍到几千万桶?第二,这些衍生产品合约究竟是什么产品?结构是什么?风险收益特征是什么?也就是说,这些衍生产品合约的可能收益有多大、潜在的风险和损失有多大?第三,这些合约是从哪里来的?谁设计了这些合约,是中国航空公司自己设计的,还是高盛等跨国金融机构?谁推销的这些产品?这些产品在其他的国家和市场是如何监管的?

  下面,笔者通过对高盛卖给中国航空公司产品的深入解剖,来回答这几个问题。因为这些产品的合约文本都是英文,而且充满了专业术语和法律条款,对普通的读者来说,搞清这些专业名词和法律条款比较困难,也没有必要。所以,在这里只分析这些产品的基本结构和风险收益特征,并揭露其欺诈本质。

  解剖欺诈性合约

  下面,笔者对这两个产品分别进行详细的分析。

  第一类,目标累计赎回合约。以下是某航空公司同某国际投行签订合约的基本结构:

  合约类型:TARN

  每月交易量:5万桶

  合约期限:36个月

  敲出条件:累计盈利150万美元

  看涨期权执行价:100美元/桶

  看跌期权执行价:70美元/桶

  杠杆比率:2

  油价现价(CL1):125.5美元/桶

  这是一个为期3年的合约。签约时间是2008年7月末,当时石油价格是125.5美元/桶。石油的价格是在2008年7月11日达到历史高点147美元/桶,然后开始下跌。

  合约的主要内容是:国际投行对航空公司说,当时的石油价格是125.5美元/桶,可以打8折即100美元让航空公司每月购买5万桶石油。这听起来很美好,简直就像天上掉下馅饼。

  但问题是,这个馅饼掺了“毒药”。国际投行说,为了吃到“天上掉下来的这个馅饼”,航空公司需要接受额外的两个条件,因为这个“馅饼”对它自己来说是一个很大的“风险”。两个附加条件:(1)如果航空公司的累计盈利达到150万美元时,该合约自动终止,这就是所谓的“敲出”。(2)如果石油价格跌破70美元/桶,航空公司需要以70美元/桶的价格加倍至每月购买10万桶石油。

  这两个条款看起来似乎没有什么危险。“收益封顶”不就是少赚点吗?没有风险嘛。“加倍购买”需要在石油价格跌破70美元/桶之后才触发。石油现在的价格是125.5美元/桶,能跌到70美元/桶吗?高盛不是说石油价格已经进入了百元时代了吗,怎么可能跌到70美元/桶?

  实际上,这两个条款是无色无味的“毒药”,正是这两剂毒药,毒死了航空公司。合约的毒性主要体现在以下几个方面。

  第一,风险非常大,是正常的两倍。当石油跌到70美元/桶以下时,航空公司将加倍以高的价格购买石油。具体来说,假设石油价格跌到40美元/桶,按照合约规定,航空公司必须以70美元/桶的固定价格购买石油,而且购买量需要加倍。正常的情况,航空公司的亏损是(70-40)×5万桶=150万美元的损失,但因为有加倍条款,航空公司被迫加倍购买,亏损也就加倍成300万美元。

  第二,航空公司收益非常小,仅150万美元。不管油价涨到100美元/桶还是涨1000美元/桶。航空公司的最大收益是不变的,都是150万美元。因为合约将航空公司的最大收益封顶了。因此,这个合约没有对冲石油价格上涨风险的功能,也就是说,没有套期保值功能。不仅没有套期保值功能,连投机的功能都没有。

  第三,时间非常长。这是一个长达三年的合约。如此长的时间跨度,为石油价格跌到70美元/桶留出了足够的时间。一旦世界经济的增长停滞或陷入衰退,石油的价格就将大幅下跌。一旦石油价格下跌,航空公司在未来三年都将被锁定在这个合约里,连逃跑的机会都没有。这就是为什么在上面提到,这个合约连投机的功能都没有。投机如果不成的话,我可以马上跑。而这个合约是连逃跑的机会都没有。

  第二类,展期三项式合约。展期三项式合约有两个部分:三项式部分和展期部分。三项式部分的结构是这样:

  每月交易量:15万桶(未考虑加倍)

  合约期限:12个月(2009年1月至2009年12月)

  航空公司买入看涨期权执行价:150美元/桶

  航空公司卖出看涨期权执行价:180美元/桶

  航空公司卖出看跌期权执行价:70美元/桶

  杠杆比率:2

  WTI原油期货现价(CL1):131.31美元/桶

  展期部分的结构是这样:

  每月交易量:30万桶

  合约期限:24个月(2010年1月至2011年12月)

  航空公司买入看涨期权执行价:170美元/桶

  航空公司卖出看涨期权执行价:200美元/桶

  航空公司卖出看跌期权执行价:80美元/桶

  杠杆比率:2

  WTI原油期货现价(CL1):131.31美元/桶

  这个合约也是由一组期权组成。合约签订时,三项式部分即开始生效。一年后,当三项式部分结束的时候,即在2009年年末,国际投行有权决定是否执行展期部分。

  三项式期权的结构可以这样来理解。在石油130美元/桶的时候,高盛送给航空公司一个权利,未来可以以150美元/桶的价格从高盛手中购买石油。作为这个权利的补偿,高盛要求三个补偿:(1)航空公司送给自己一个权利,当石油价格跌到70美元/桶之下时,高盛可按70美元/桶的价格向航空公司卖出石油;(2)航空公司送给高盛另外一个权利,送给高盛一个执行价在180美元/桶的看涨期权,其作用是将航空公司的盈利进行封顶,也就是每桶最大的盈利不能超过50美元;(3)航空公司再送给高盛一个权利,高盛可以在一年后选择是否将展期部分激活的权利,也就是说,高盛在一年后可以在完全不需要航空公司同意的情况下,决定是否将展期部分变成立即执行的合约。

  这个合约同目标累积合约TARN相比,都是欺诈性极强的合约。但是,展期三项式比TARN更隐蔽,更有欺骗性,杀伤力也更大。

  首先,展期三项式合约的第一部分三项式,是一个有一定套期保值功能的结构,这会使得很多人认为整个展期三项式合约也是一个套期保值产品。而真实的情况是,展期三项式的展期部分是没有任何套期保值功能的,是一个纯粹的陷阱。展期部分的执行权在高盛手里,航空公司只有被动接受的权利,没有选择的权利。

  因此,这个展期期权对航空公司来说,只有可能的义务和责任,没有任何主动的权利。对高盛来说,只有在对其非常有利的情况下,高盛才会选择执行展期期权,当市场对高盛不利、对航空公司有利的时候,高盛不会行使权利,因此,高盛没有任何风险,S航空公司也就相应没有任何收益。而对高盛有利的时候,则恰恰对航空公司极其不利。展期三项式这么危险的结构,高盛通过将其同三项式捆绑在一起,就给了航空公司套期保值工具的假象,充分表明了其隐蔽性。

  其次,展期三项式合约的杀伤力更大。相比较TARN而言,展期三项式没有敲出机制,因此合约一旦签订,就意味着航空公司被完全锁定三年,中间没有任何机会终止合约。

  展期三项式的“展期”,其实是一个期权,在当时的市场中,该期权应该被定价,但高盛却“免费”得到了这一展期权利。

  蒙在鼓里的高管

  2009年3月,笔者团队成为S航空公司衍生品财务顾问,对S航空公司与高盛等签订的石油衍生品合约进行分析、研究、定价和重组。受S航空公司全权委托进行衍生品合约的重组和谈判。

  当我们最初告诉企业,它们被高盛等国际金融机构欺诈的时候,所有的人都不接受这个观点,认为我们是在故意夸大其辞。

  在约谈高盛等投行前,S航空公司提出要进行一个演练。S航空公司自己组建了一个团队“代表”高盛,和我带领的衍生品团队进行一个模拟演习。我们以一个合约为例,说明这些合约的欺诈问题。

  这是一个为期三年、合约金额2亿美元的合约。对S航空公司来说,在未来三年里,这个合约最大的可能盈利仅是可怜的150万美元,但最大的可能亏损却可以高达2亿美元。这样的合约怎么能有套期保值功能呢?通过这个合约,完全可以证明高盛的欺诈行为。

  讲到这里,S航空公司负责合约谈判重组的一位高管打断了我们。他说,你们的分析有错误。这个合约是每月的最大可能盈利是150万美元,三年内的最大可能盈利则应该是150×36=5400万美元。我说,不是1个月可能盈利150万美元,而是这三年的最大可能盈利是150万美元。我们的计算是严格按照合约条款进行,并经过多重检验,肯定没有错误。

  这位高管则说,S航空公司不可能签订这样的合约,“我们S航空公司虽然没有衍生品的专业能力,但基本的商业判断还是有的,断不会为了150万美元而签订这样一个为期三年、合约金额高达2亿美元、损失却可能高达2亿美元的合约!”

  我们两个僵持不下,无法达成共识。他转身问旁边财务部的负责人。S航空公司的财务部是具体负责开展套期保值业务、同高盛等交易对手签订衍生品合约的业务部门,所有合约的签订和日常的沟通都是财务部具体负责。他问财务部的负责人:“这个合约我们三年的最大可能盈利仅仅是150万美元吗?”。财务部的老总低着头,点头称是。这位高管当时就惊呆了,拍着桌子说,这是欺诈!太过分了!

  笔者当时内心也惊呆了。这些合约已经使用好几年了,从2008年10月巨亏开始出现之后,到我们开会也有半年多的时间。但直到当时,S航空公司高层还没有了解和掌握这些合约的真实情况,具体负责套期保值业务的工作人员仍然在“蒙蔽”公司的高层领导。

  高盛的“无赖逻辑”

  2009年4月,我们与对手方高盛杰润公司某负责人Martin一行进行了第一轮谈判,我们通过分析合约条款,指出高盛卖给S航空公司的展期三项式不是套期保值工具,没有套期保值功能,甚至连投机功能都没有,是一个欺诈性工具。而在S航空公司与高盛签订的石油合约中,都有S航空公司明确的声明:“签订本合约的唯一目的是套期保值,没有任何其他的投机目的”。此外,合约在签订的时候双方的风险收益极其不平等,尤其是展期三项式的期权估值,按照合约签订时石油期货当时的市价和当时石油期货的波动率曲线,采用我们自己的模型进行估值和计算,我们发现这个合约的价值对高盛来说价值3000万美元。但是,高盛却没有付给S航空公司一分钱。换句话说,S航空公司送给了高盛一个价值3000万美元的合约,却没有得到一分钱。S航空公司自己没有能力对这些合约进行估值和定价,完全依靠高盛对这些合约进行定价。因此,高盛在定价上欺诈了S航空公司。

  在与高盛后来的谈判中,Martin首先说展期三项式虽然不符合套期保值会计,但这不意味着这个产品没有套期保值功能。企业可以根据自己的实际情况,通过石油现货和这个展期三项式形成套期保值。S航空公司使用这个产品已经4年,前3年一直在赚钱。Martin的这些话让我非常惊讶,因为这意味着他对套期保值最基本的概念都没有理解。

  符合套期保值会计的基本要求之一就是,采用的衍生品工具和石油现货之间具有高度的相关关系,通常需要在80%到120%之间。也就是说,如果石油价格上涨一倍,那么,这个衍生产品工具的价值也要上涨,且上涨幅度不小于80%。换句话说,套期保值会计和形成套期保值就是一一对应的关系。但是,高盛卖给S航空公司的这个展期三项式和石油现货根本没有这个关系,因此,不可能是套期保值。

  我要求Martin详细地解释S航空公司的展期三项式怎么和石油现货之间形成对冲关系。Martin无法做出解答。在我的一再要求之下,Martin说,高盛不是S航空公司的顾问,没有义务对此进行分析,是依靠S航空公司自己的分析来判断展期三项式有没有套期保值功能。这是一种无赖的逻辑。

  关于S航空公司在前3年通过这个产品一直赚钱的问题,我告诉Martin,恰恰说明高盛卖给S航空公司的展期三项式产品没有套期保值功能,是一个欺诈性的产品。从2004年到2008年,在这4年里,S航空公司通过跟高盛等签订的合约赚了2000多万美元。乍看起来,这是一笔很大的数字。但深入分析的话,就会发现严重的问题。S航空公司每年用于购买燃油的费用都在数百亿元人民币。石油价格从2004年到的30美元/桶,涨到2008年的147美元/桶,简单估算,S航空公司四年中因航空燃油上涨导致的成本增加高达数百亿。如果有套期保值功能的话,应该能够覆盖大部分燃油价格上涨带来的成本增加,与高盛签订的这些展期三项式合约在过去四年应给S航空公司带来几十亿元的收益才对,但实际却不到2亿元。同几十亿元的实际购油成本的增加相比,实在是微不足道,基本上可以忽略,根本就没有起到套期保值功能。

  这个展期三项式在石油价格上涨的时候,不能帮助S航空公司对冲价格上涨的风险,不能帮助S航空公司锁定购油的价格。但是,当石油价格下跌的时候,却给S航空公司带来巨额损失,这是典型的欺诈。

  最终,我们给S航空公司提出了停止赔付、起诉高盛的建议。但是S航空公司因各种原因没有采纳这一建议。最后是因为国资委的介入,才帮助S航空公司等企业避免了更大的损失。

  不仅仅是S航空公司,中国B航空公司、中国某海洋运输公司,以及中信泰富、深南电、海升果汁等一大批企业,都陷落在这种“欺诈”之中。怎样让更多人知道中国企业受“欺诈”的真相,怎样避免犯同样的错误,怎样增强中国金融机构与中国企业在金融衍生品市场上的能力,实是迫在眉睫的任务。

Friday, February 11, 2011

Mubarak Leaves Legacy of Egypt in Turmoil While Region at Peace

Mubarak Leaves Legacy of Egypt in Turmoil While Region at Peace

By Alaa Shahine and Cam Simpson

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- It took 18 days of pressure from Cairo protesters as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 European Union called for change to end cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 30-year presidency of Hosni Mubarak, who kept peace with Israel, battled Islamic militants and preserved American interests in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Middle East.

His departure came after violence killed more than 300 people, according to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 United Nations, with police sometimes firing on demonstrators and pro-Mubarak forces attacking as well. Egypt is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 most populous country in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Arab world, which holds more than 50 percent of all known oil reserves.

The replacement for Mubarak -- who said just yesterday that he would stay until September elections while handing powers to his vice-president -- must have democratic legitimacy, former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski said in a telephone interview before Mubarak said he would leave.

“Egypt is now at a stage of development in which it is reasonable and expected by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 population,” Brzezinski said of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 need for a leader popularly elected in free and fair elections.

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Facebook Opponents

Mubarak was brought down by an unexpected coalition of opposition politicians, members of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 banned Muslim Brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rhood group and, most important, tens of thousands of young people who planned and organized cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 demonstrations on Facebook and Twitter.

Chief among cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m: Wael Ghonim, a 30-year-old Google Inc. executive whose social media expertise helped trigger and propel cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 demonstrations. He was arrested and held in secret detention for more than a week as Mubarak’s government shut down cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Internet and mobile services, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 tools he used to help make cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 protests possible.

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Peace With Israel

Mubarak kept peace with Israel, with which Egypt had had formal peace for only two years when he took office, supported U.S. counterterrorism efforts, backed Iranian sanctions over its nuclear program and helped broker Palestinian-Israeli negotiations.

At cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same time, Mubarak, an 82-year-old with jet-black hair, controlled a regime condemned by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. government for its lack of basic freedoms at home, for its widespread suppression of political opposition and for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 torture of Egyptian citizens, which was often carried out with impunity, according to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 State Department.

“If you are prepared to reconcile those two realities, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n it seems to me that, on balance, Mubarak has been a partner and a friend to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 region,” said former U.S. Middle East peace negotiator Aaron David Miller.

Still, Miller said, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cost was steep.

‘Anger and Animosity’

“His increasing authoritarianism and repression generated enormous anger and animosity, not just towards him, but also toward cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 United States,” said Miller, who served as a State Department official under six U.S. secretaries of state and was a peace negotiator in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Clinton Administration. He is now a public policy scholar at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

Mubarak was propelled to power by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 1981 assassination of Anwar Sadat, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 leader who made peace with Israel two years earlier. Only Mohammed Ali, who ruled Egypt from 1805 to 1849, governed longer in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past 200 years.

Miller said three decades of stability in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 region for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. and Israel helped Mubarak buy a pass from Washington when he failed to follow through on pledges to open cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country’s political system to competition that would have posed a challenge to his own rule.

Egypt’s benchmark stock index has risen more than seven- fold in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past 10 years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has almost tripled in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same period. Egypt’s stock market is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 second-biggest in North Africa by market value after Morocco according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Protected Ruling Elite

Since cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 global financial crisis, though, Egypt’s economic growth rate has dropped below cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 7 percent that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 government estimates is necessary to create enough jobs for a growing working-age population -- such as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 young people who camped out in Cairo’s Tahrir Square.

Suppression of a wide array of perceived rivals under an emergency law promulgated in 1981 marked Mubarak’s reign. Some analysts and opposition groups, including cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Muslim Brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rhood, said his policies protected cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ruling elite while leaving cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 poor grappling with an inflation rate that reached more than 20 percent in 2008.

Mubarak’s governments blamed population growth and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economic mismanagement of past administrations for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 poverty that plagued cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 nation of 80 million.

Egypt’s per-capita gross domestic product more than quadrupled from 1981 to 2009, when it stood at $6,000, lower than countries such as Namibia and Gabon, according to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 CIA World Factbook.

Funeral Visit

Mubarak never put in doubt cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 policy of diplomatic rapprochement with Israel, though his only visit to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Jewish state was for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 funeral of assassinated Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995.

He renewed ties with Arab states, which had almost universally rejected Cairo’s separate peace accord with Israel under Sadat. They showed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir anger by breaking diplomatic relations with Egypt, suspending its membership in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Arab League and moving cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 group’s headquarters from Cairo to Tunis.

Addressing Arab leaders in Cairo in 1996, Mubarak stressed his commitment to regional peace, which he maintained until cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of his regime.

“There isn’t among us anyone who wants to take cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 region back to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 destruction of war or to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 phase of no war and no peace,” he said. “We are sincerely determined to struggle for peace until cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end.”

Brzezinski, who was national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter when cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. helped forge cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Egypt-Israel accord, said that was Mubarak’s most important legacy.

Avoiding Legacy

“I think avoiding war in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 region is of importance to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 United States,” Brzezinski said. “The moment Egypt signed a separate peace treaty with Israel cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 possibility of an encircling attack on Israel, like in 1973, faded.”

Mubarak also retained Egypt’s alliance with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S., which began with Sadat’s break with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n-Soviet Union. Egypt now receives about $1.3 billion a year in U.S. military aid. U.S. non-military aid last year was $250 million, according to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 State Department.

Critics, including cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 group Human Rights Watch, said he went too far, arguing that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 alleged torture of terrorism suspects created more danger than it quelled.

The government’s “foul record on torture” played an important part in fueling cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 anger that brought Mubarak down, said Sarah Leah Whitson, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Middle East director at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 New York-based Human Rights Watch.

Five Times President

She called on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 new government to end torture and prosecute perpetrators.

Mubarak was elected president five times. Four were by referendum in which he was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 only candidate, and one, in 2005, was an election against an array of weak candidates. Throughout his reign, he retained cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 state-of-emergency rules that restricted political activity and free speech.

Like Egypt’s three ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r presidents since cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 revolution of 1952, Mubarak came from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 military. Almost three decades after he assumed power, that same military would announce that it recognized “cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 legitimacy of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 people’s demands” and promise not to fire on peaceful demonstrators.

Until cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 crisis that began with demonstrations Jan. 25, Mubarak had never appointed a vice president or officially designated anyone as his likely successor. The rise of his son, Gamal, up cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ranks of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ruling National Democratic Party led Egyptians to conjecture that he would succeed his facá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r. Both men repeatedly denied this.

Brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rhood Opponents

His most visible political opponents were members of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Muslim Brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rhood, an Islamic group that had renounced violence in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 1970s. Dissatisfaction among Egyptians over corruption and economic inequality fueled its growth.

In 2005, Mubarak opened presidential elections to multiple candidates. The regulations were so restrictive that no strong challengers emerged; cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 runner-up, lawyer Ayman Nour, won only 7 percent of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 vote to Mubarak’s 88 percent. After cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 election, Nour was jailed for four years on fraud charges that human-rights groups say were trumped up.

In elections later in 2005, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Muslim Brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rhood won 88 seats in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 454-member parliament -- a surprise result that prompted a crackdown on Islamic activists and on anti-Mubarak secular politicians, judges, newspaper editors, bloggers and street demonstrators. Hundreds of Brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rhood activists were rounded up and some put on trial in closed-door military courts.

In 2007, a constitutional amendment forbade parties with religious ties, eliminating cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Muslim Brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rhood from fielding a presidential candidate. Rules on running as an independent were also tightened, making a Brocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rhood-affiliated nominee unlikely.

To contact cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reporters on this story: Alaa Shahine in Cairo at asalha@bloomberg.netCam Simpson in London at csimpson13@bloomberg.net