Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Beware cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Hype in China's Story

Beware cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Hype in China's Story

By PETER STEIN

A raft of planned stock listings are betting on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 future spending power of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Chinese consumer. The trends underlying this rush to market are real, but investors should avoid heedlessly buying all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 hype.

The big picture is familiar: China's long-term growth trajectory is creating a vast middle and upper class eager to buy clocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365s, cars, cosmetics and cashmere scarves in ever-larger quantities. The story has gained allure amid China's moves to promote domestic consumption as a future growth engine.

So far, signs of a slowdown in China that are weighing on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country's broader markets haven't damped enthusiasm for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 consumption story, which appeals in part because it offers a longer-term bet on spending patterns that should outlast any short-term market downturn.

Two big global brands, Prada and Samsonite, highlight cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 power of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 China story as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y prepare to list on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Hong Kong exchange. The Italian fashion house is raising around $2 billion in an initial public offering, pitching itself as a play on China's demand for luxury goods. Luggage maker Samsonite, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 subject of several buyouts and messy restructurings in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past, is seeking $1.51 billion. Its growth prospects in Asia, and China especially, are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 offering's top selling point.

Ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r China retail plays in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pipeline include Vancl.com, a Chinese online clothing retailer that aims to raise up to $1 billion in a New York listing, and Chow Tai Fook, a jewelry chain controlled by Hong Kong billionaire Cheng Yu Tong. Chow Tai Fook's credentials as a premier vendor of Chinese bling are emboldening it to seek $3 billion to $4 billion in a Hong Kong offering early next year.

Bankers and fund managers say at least 15 IPOs, and as many as 30, that play on China consumer demand are in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 works. But a rush of similarly cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365med companies coming to market means sellers smell opportunity—and buyers should beware. That's particularly true for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 many domestic Chinese retailers, including many online retailers, looking to go public and targeting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mass market.

"That's what we had with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Internet bubble—too many me-too adopters" that lacked strong business fundamentals, says Stephan Schäli, head of private equity at Partners Group, a global private-markets investment-management firm that happens to own a stake in Samsonite. He notes that China's retail space remains hugely fragmented and it's difficult to identify which companies are best positioned to survive when consolidation eventually thins cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ranks.

There are ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r risks with domestic Chinese companies of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 entrepreneurial variety that predominate in retailing, including occasional corporate-governance problems and accounting shenanigans—stuff that has drawn cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 attention of U.S. regulators in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 wake of alleged fraud and mismanagement at more than a dozen U.S.-listed Chinese companies.

The more-established foreign brands listing in Hong Kong offer a certain level of comfort. Multinationals benefiting from China's growth have long been a safer way for global investors to gain at least some indirect China exposure. What's new is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 idea that some are now choosing to go public in Hong Kong, closer to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 region cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y believe will drive future profits.

Prada's growth prospects in China look solid. Goldman Sachs figures that already about 30% of its global sales go to Chinese buyers, many of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m making cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir purchases overseas. It also forecasts that by 2025 Chinese luxury consumers will number 200 million, up from 15 million now.

One Prada perk: Luxury sales could do well even if China doesn't successfully shift more of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy toward consumption. The plutocrat class will likely keep expanding regardless, unless China runs into bigger problems, such as a banking crisis.

However, high tariffs on luxury goods in China could crimp expansion plans on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mainland, and keeping up cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 brand's image of exclusivity will be harder once its goods become more ubiquitous.

Samsonite is pitched toward a lower rung of Chinese affluence, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365refore a bigger market.

As a whole, Asia already makes up about 40% of Samsonite's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a common measure of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company's core business. But even though China is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company's No. 2 market, it is a surprisingly small portion of sales at less than 10%, and boosting that share requires getting consumers in a market flooded with cheap suitcases and rolling carry-on bags to shell out extra yuan for a brand name.

Investors would be right to harness cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rising power of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Chinese consumer to boost cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir portfolio returns. They just need to look carefully where cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y fasten cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 harness.

Write to Peter Stein at peter.stein@wsj.com

Monday, May 30, 2011

Danger of Greek Contagion Climbs

Danger of Greek Contagion Climbs

By TOM LAURICELLA

As European leaders wrangle over Greece's debt crisis, investors are scrambling to assess cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 damage any imminent restructuring would have on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rest of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 region.

Investors have long expected Greece to default on its debts, but most were anticipating it would happen sometime next year. Now, skirmishes among European leaders last week have raised cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 prospect that a default could come as early as mid-July—not enough time for Europe's ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r debt-ridden economies to right cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365mselves.

That scenario would make contagion more likely and dangerous, sending bond yields in affected countries soaring and hurting investors.

"In an ideal world, from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 [European Union]'s perspective, you would [restructure] furcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r down cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 track and give cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 likes of Portugal, Ireland and Spain time to put cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir fiscal consolidation in order," says Huw Worthington, European interest-rate strategist at Barclays Capital in London.

More
Germany Weighs Shift to End Greek Impasse
.Greek bond prices indicate investors are anticipating a restructuring, such as a deal in which bondholders suffer immediate losses or cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir interest payments are extended, which is still considered a default. Greek two-year debt traded Monday at a yield of nearly 25%, about 23 percentage points more than comparable two-year German bonds and roughly double cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 level of two months ago, according to TradeWeb.

After relative calm earlier this year, some ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r European countries also have had cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir borrowing costs rise. Investors don't appear to have factored in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 impact of a more-immediate Greek default on such countries as Portugal, Ireland and Spain, or how such an event would affect European banks and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 European Central Bank, which hold Greek debt.

Spain this week will test demand as it seeks to raise €3.5 billion ($5 billion) from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sale of in three- and four-year bonds. Italy on Monday paid lower yields than a month ago to sell debt amid relatively strong investor demand.

Following last year's rescue by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 International Monetary Fund and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 European Union, Greece wasn't supposed to need to borrow money from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 markets until 2012. And until recently, European officials dismissed any talk of restructuring until an EU-wide framework for sovereign default comes into place in 2013.

But Greece warned early last week that it could default if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 IMF doesn't come through with an expected $17 billion payment at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end of June. And on Thursday, financial markets were rattled by comments from a top euro-zone official, Jean-Claude Juncker, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Luxembourg premier who heads cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 group of 17 European finance ministers. Mr. Juncker said that IMF payment might not be forthcoming.

European officials are struggling to hash out some kind of a short-term agreement over more aid to Greece before it runs out of cash, which would happen in mid-July. The fix would be designed to ensure IMF support for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country.

"It's hard to see how Greece gets out of this without some restructuring," says Peter Fisher, head of fixed-income portfolio management at BlackRock Inc. "Is it possible to stave it off until 2013? The Europeans, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 IMF and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ECB have to come up with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 resources, and that has to do with political will.

"A lesson of history is you want to anticipate a default and prepare for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 consequences," he says.

In Greece's case, that would mean having a clearer picture of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 value that European banks have placed on any Greek debt that is on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir books and strengcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ning Europe's banking system with more capital.

"Right now, that's not in evidence," Mr. Fisher says.

Anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r concern is that Portugal and Ireland are vulnerable to a credit-rating downgrade, says Frances Hudson, a strategist for Standard Life Investments' Global Absolute Return Strategies, of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.K. Both Ireland and Portugal are rated one level above "junk" status by Moody's Investors Service.

Last week, Moody's warned about cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 potential for a Greek default to hurt cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ratings of ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r countries.

"The full impact [of a Greek default] on Europe's capital markets would be hard to predict and harder still to control," Moody's analysts wrote. "The fallout would have implications for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 creditworthiness and hence cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ratings of issuers across Europe."

Should those ratings get cut furcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r, that could force selling by money managers whose guidelines prohibit holding junk-rated debt and result in those countries being deleted from investment-grade bond indexes tracked by many managers.

"It would take cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m out of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 investable universe for a lot of managers," Ms. Hudson says. Portugal and Ireland "are on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cusp of a massive problem."

Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., expects that ultimately holders of Greek debt will suffer losses of 40% to 60% of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir original investments.

In cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 wake of such a move, both government- and corporate-bond markets in Ireland and Portugal would come under furcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r, sustained pressure "as both countries are already in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365…intensive financial care unit," Mr. El-Erian said.

Spain, too, would likely suffer, he said, though it may be more resilient, assuming it continues to shore up its financial system.

For now, prices on those countries' debt are well above those of Greece. Spain's two-year debt traded Monday at a yield of 3.52%, Portugal's at 10.9% and Ireland's at 11.8%, according to TradeWeb. Yields and prices move in opposite directions.

The ECB, meanwhile, will take a hit through both cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Greek bonds it has bought and those it has acquired from European banks through financing operations.

—Stephen Fidler
and Emese Bartha
contributed to this article.
Write to Tom Lauricella at tom.lauricella@wsj.com

Friday, May 27, 2011

Dollar Wins a Round in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 'Ugly' Contest

Dollar Wins a Round in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 'Ugly' Contest

By JAVIER E. DAVID

Faltering U.S. economic growth and gloomy labor market data undercut cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 dollar, momentarily overshadowing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 euro-zone debt crisis.

The "ugly dog" contest in which cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 dollar has tussled with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 euro for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mantle of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 least attractive major currency was on full display Thursday, as poor U.S. economic data competed with Europe's sovereign-debt turmoil. Amid fears that Greece will need to restructure its more than $300 billion in debt, investors are grappling with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 prospect that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. economy could be decelerating.

Data showed that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy expanded at a 1.8% pace in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first three months of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 year, shy of forecasts. Meanwhile, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 number of U.S. workers filing new claims rose more than economists had anticipated.

Although Europe's smaller economies are struggling, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 European Central Bank's determination to stamp out price pressures by raising interest rates continues to lure investors to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 single currency as an alternative to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 dollar.

"At a time when we're headed toward cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ending of quantitative easing, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 tax of higher oil and commodity prices are having an effect on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy, and that's contributing to a weak dollar," said Greg Michalowski, chief currency analyst at FXDD.

.Higher euro-zone yields aren't giving as much of a boost to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 euro that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y did several weeks ago. However, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Federal Reserve's quantitative-easing efforts have undermined cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 dollar and made cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 euro more attractive, even as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 debt crisis rages on without resolution.

Late Thursday in New York, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 euro was at $1.4137 from $1.4084 late Wednesday. The dollar was at ¥81.35 from ¥81.97, while cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 euro was at ¥115.01 from ¥115.44. The U.K. pound was at $1.6390 from $1.6279. The dollar was at 0.8660 Swiss franc from 0.8728 franc late Wednesday.

Global risk aversion has contributed to a surging Swiss franc, which set a record against cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 euro Thursday. The euro fell to 1.2242 francs as investors sought a safe harbor from Greece restructuring fears. The strong performance of Switzerland's economy, even in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 face of a strong franc, also has enhanced cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 currency's attractiveness.

While cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 euro advanced, markets remain on edge about developments in Europe. The euro was briefly knocked lower after Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker said Greece might be denied cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next tranche of financial aid if an audit of its budget accounting shows that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country cannot guarantee financing for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next 12 months.

Mr. Juncker's statement undercut cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 efforts of Germany and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ECB, which have tried to downplay any talk that Greece will have to restructure.

"The rhetoric [in Europe] has all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 trappings of a comedy of errors," said Jessica Hoversen, fixed-income and foreign-exchange analyst at MF Global in Chicago. "It decreases credibility and increases uncertainty about how when officials are going to reach" a resolution, she said.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

中国公司债券市场发展分析

中国公司债券市场发展分析

来源:国研网 作者: 时间:2009/03/16
公司债券是有价证券市场上的重要品种,也是涉及公司资本来源结构的必要融资工具。在我国的相当长一段时间内存在企业债券、公司债券与金融债券的划分,这是由中国企业的管理体制与组织制度变迁所决定的客观现象。现在看来,由于国有企业的公司制改造基本完成,资本市场
公司债券是 有价证券市场上的重要品种,也是涉及公司资本来源结构的必要融资工具。在我国的相当长一段时间内存在企业债券、公司债券与金融债券的划分,这是由中国企业 的管理体制与组织制度变迁所决定的客观现象。现在看来,由于国有企业的公司制改造基本完成,资本市场上的公司证券就主要是公司债券与股票。但考虑到历史变 迁,本文在论述这一市场时,在术语的使用上是交叉的。恢复发展了十多年的中国资本市场如果再进一步发展,必须在结构上有所突破,或者说,持续发展的资本市 场必须是一个结构不断优化的市场,这其中的一个重点就是应大力发展中国的公司债券市场,而且这也是涉及到公司资本结构合理化的问题。那么,中国公司债券目 前是一个什么样的基础,面临哪些问题,需要哪些制度与市场机制的建立与培育,才能达到促进这一市场发展的目的呢?
中国企业债券市场及其引出的企业金融问题
(一)中国企业债券的源起与类别
1、1984年,在中国政府恢复发行国债、启用国家信用后的第3年,企业自主权开始扩大,其中选择资本供给来源的主动性也有一定扩大;加之当时统收统支、由财政统一供给企业资本的体制已被打破,转向由银行作 为主要的供应体,为了配合银行信贷资金的供给,也开始允许企业发行股票、债券,直接向社会筹集资金,但由于当时的股票多半规定有付息与偿还本金的时间,因 而也是一种企业债券形式。自此,中国百姓和企业却从此有了“企业债券”的概念和意识,意义还是积极的。1984年以后,在政府的严格控制下,企业债券的发 行越来越多,但如同股票开始进入中国经济生活一样,起初还谈不上将其作为一种“金融商品”来对待,并没有“市场”的概念,因为供给和需求都是强制性的,尚 未明确树立自愿、平等、互利的原则,这是由中国经济改革进程所决定的。
2、从政府的管理和统计看,中国企业债券主要是按企业的隶属关系和期限来划分的。即中央企业债券、地方企业债券,前者主要是隶属于中央政府的重 点企业、分布在电力、化工、有色金属、铁道,能源、交通、重点原材料产业,这些企业发行的债券均由其主管部门(行业主管部委机关或总公司)担保;地方企业 债券主要是由那些隶属地方政府的工商企业和金融性质的投资公司发行的。从期限结构看,几乎没有超过10年期的债券,大多在3-5年期;从1987年底开 始,在一些大中城市试点企业“短期融资券”,并于1989年初在全国推开,期限为3、6、9个月,严格讲,这属于短期票据,非直接意义上的公司债券。
中国企业发行的债券主要是到期一次还本付息的零息债券,金融机构发行的债券也有按年付息的附息债券;所发债券一般是用企业资产或由第三方机构提 供担保的债券,特别是国家重点企业债券,均由行业主管机关出面担保。从1997年4月份起,国务院证券委颁布了《可转换公司债券管理行办法》,决定于当年 首次在中国发行40亿元可转换公司债券,并且只从中央政府确定的500家重点国有企业中的未上市公司系 列里选择批准发行体。这是中国第一次引进西方国家金融市场上带有转换股票期权性质的债券制度,企求以此带动发展债券市场、满足企业筹措资金需要的一种体 现。但按理,转换公司债券因涉及到转换成股票的系数问题,一般是由上市公司发行,然而中国第一次试点这种债券是由非上市的国有企业发行,不仅不是上市公 司,甚至也可能不是公司制的国有企业,从中可以看出,这里更多地是将可转换公司债券作为推动国有企业改革、解决国有企业困难的一种措施来对待,融资工具的 色彩并不是很浓。
(二)中国企业债券发行规模的变动及其反映的问题
1、目前,中国公司债券的发行规模还是相对很低的。从全部企业的债务资本结构看,大约也就只有不超过2%的份额是通过发行中长期债券筹得的,如果考虑到70%左右的负债率,通过债券发行形成的资金来源占全部资金的比例不会超过1.4%。
1992年和1993年是企业债券发行较高的时间段,但当时是在经济“过热”过程中因金融秩序较乱所形成的,甚至助长了乱集资现象。1993年 的企业债券发行量急剧减少,从1997年允许发行可转换公司债券后,尤其是1990年代末起,公司债券的发行渐渐又多起来。从总的趋势看,企业债券发行规 模还是逐渐增加的,但年度间的变动比较大,这反映了政府和企业逐步认识到利用债券融资、供给资本的必要性,并逐步增大对企业债券的利用程度,也反映了有关 这方面政策的不成熟。
2、企业债券发行规模的额度控制,使之在相当长一段时间内成为中国信贷计划的一部分。对于企业债券发行规模的管理框架是:起先由国家计划发展委 员会(原国家计委)会同中国人民银行、财政部、国务院证券委员会拟订全国企业债券发行的年度规模和规模内的各项指标,报国务院批准后下达各省、自治区、直 辖市、计划单列市人民政府和国务院有关部门执行,其中,计委主要是考虑全社会固定资产投资计划,中国人民银行主要考虑全社会的信贷计划,财政部主要考虑与 当年国债发行计划的衔接,证券委主要是负责与股票发行计 划的协调,因而每年的企业债券发行计划由四个部门商定后报国务院批准。这实质上还是信贷计划、规模控制在企业债券发行管理中的体现,仍然是一种计划经济的 做法。除此之外,国家还按基本建设、技术改造项目来分配企业债券发行规模。但由于1998年起消除了银行信贷规模管理制度,以及公司制逐步成为中国企业组 织制度的主要形式,预算软约束得到较大改观后,企业债券管理体制有所变化,目前基本由国家计委来统一管理,中国证监会仅是对其二级交易进行监管,但规模限 制框架尚未根本改变。
3、从发行规模看企业债券在中国有价证券体系中的相对地位。企业债券在目前中国证券市场构成中占据比较次要的地位,对整个证券市场还形不成大的 影响。与股票筹资情况相比,在1995年以前,企业债券筹资规模要大于股票(除1993年外),而到1996年,235亿元的A股股票筹资额远大于当年 150亿元的企业债券筹资额。最近几年,两者的差距就更大了,股票筹资一年几千亿元,而公司债券不过几百亿元。当然,具体到每个企业,情况又有非常大的差 异,特别是上市公司,外部资金来源剔除银行信贷外,股票发行占大多数,因为允许发行债券的企业不一定能够发行股票,反之亦然。
(三)从中国企业债券资本结构看企业债券的供给机制,西方的企业资本构成理论是否适合目前的中国企业
首先,额度管理的审批模式决定了一段时间内企业债券供给是既定的,不存在随需求或发行利率(价格)变动的供给弹性问题,与目前的西方市场完全是两码事,这实质上是一种资金计划分配制度的演化。
其次,由于企业制度改革尚未到位,特别是那些非上市的国有企业,并没有树立起利用财务杠杆的观念,即通过适当扩大债务资本提高企业市场价值,即 使上市公司,也仅仅是热衷于通过发行股票筹资;投资者也只是一心赚取买卖投机价差收入,对于股权收益率的提高也没有成为大多数投资者和上市公司所重点考虑 的问题,因为近几年上市公司的财务报告中,通过“应付债券”会计科目形成的债务资本非常小。
第三,与第二点相联系,目前中国企业的资产负债率很高,但其资本金利润率(相当于股权收益率)和资金利润率(相当于总资产收益率)却不高,不仅 逐年下降,反而资本金利润率与负债率也不呈MM理论所显示的正相关关系。在企业的负债率已经很高的情况下,再增加债务资本对企业生产经营和效益的提高并不 发挥积极的作用,尽管企业资金需求仍很强烈,因为原有债务资本已变成库存积压产品,未能转化为企业扩大生产所需的货币资本,新增加的资本只能是弥补积压资 本的空缺,不但有可能形不成新的收入,反而可能会加重产成品积压。如此情况,增加企业债券发行的财务意义并不很大。
第四,就目前中国企业外部资本供给来源看,主要包括银行贷款、发行债券和股票,企业较偏重于银行贷款和股票发行,对债券融资的内在积极性不是很 大,尤其是在金融监管较严的情况下就更是如此了。原因是,银行贷款利率是较低的官方管制利率,手续简便,成本费用较低,期满不能偿还时,还能展期甚至挂 帐;而发行债券,由于市场推销机制与环节等因素,成本费用并不见得比银行贷款低,并且债券主要是由个人购买,如不能按期偿还,相比对银行贷款的拖欠,其压 力要大得多,所以,企业对债务资本进行选择时,债券并非是首选对象。更值得注意的是,自从可以允许发行股票以来,企业更加偏好于这种融资工具。企业外部融 资渠道是按银行贷款——股票——债券的顺序来选择利用的,即只是在银行贷款规模收紧、股票发行无望时,才选择债券发行。
可见,西方经济学界关于公司资本结构和融资方式选择的理论并不完全适合于我国目前情况,因而不能照搬过来解释评析我国现阶段的一些经济现象。但 这并不等于说上述我国企业债券供给弹性问题就永远得不到解决,只不过需要具备一些基本的前提条件,首先是,企业改革要达到一定程度,至少大中型企业预算约 束要能够使企业的经营者感觉到非得为企业的股东利益着想才能不削弱个人利益的地步;其次是银行信贷不再包揽中长期基建或技改性质的固定资产投资,斩断企业 对银行信贷的过度依赖机制,只有进入这个境界,才能对企业债券的发行放松额度控制,才不会担心出现债券发行过滥而不负责任、将风险推给国有银行和政府的现 象,债券的供给才会表现出随需求、利率变动而有所起伏的合理弹性,那时的市场机制也才算真正有了眉目。

债券投资ABC(三) 中国债券市场现状

债券投资ABC(三) 中国债券市场现状
时间:2008-04-01 14:13



    本节中我们将向投资者介绍中国债券市场的现状,包括市场分布及各级市场的简要介绍、市场存量等。
一、 中国债券市场分布
    从下图中可以清晰地看出中国债券市场的分布情况,由债券一级市场、场外债券市场和债券二级市场组成。下文将分别介绍一级市场和二级市场的构成及运行情况。

    (一)一级市场概况

    1、一级市场参与者

    债券发行市场主要由发行者、认购者和委托承销机构组成。

    只要具备发行资格,不管是国家、政府机构和金融机构,还是公司、企业和其他法人,都可以通过发行债券来借钱。

    认购者就是购买债券的投资者,主要有社会公众团体、企事业法人、证券经营机构、非盈利性机构、外国企事业机构和个人投资者。

    委托承销机构就是代发行人办理债券发行和销售业务的中介人,主要有投资银行、证券公司、商业银行和信托投资公司等等。

    2、 发行方式

    债券的发行方式有公募发行、私募发行和承购包销三种。

    下面详细介绍国债的发行。国债发行按是否有金融中介机构参与出售的标准来看,有直接发行与间接发行之分,其中间接发行又包括代销、承购包销、招标发行和拍卖发行四种方式。

    直接发行,一般指作为发行体的财政部直接将国债券定向发行给特定的机构投资者,也称定向私募发行,采取这种推销方式发行的国债数额一般不太大。而作为国家 财政部每次国债发行额较大,如美国每星期仅中长期国债就发行100亿美元,我国每次发行的国债至少也达上百亿元人民币,仅靠发行主体直接推销巨额国债有一 定难度,因此使用该种发行方式较为少见。

    代销方式,指由国债发行体委托代销者代为向社会出售债券,可以充分利用代销者的网点,但因代销者只是按预定的发行条件,于约定日期内代为推销,代销期终止,若有未销出余额,全部退给发行主体,代销者不承担任何风险与责任,因此,代销方式也有不如人意的地方:

(1)不能保证按当时的供求情况形成合理的发行条件;
(2)推销效率难尽人意;
(3)发行期较长,因为有预约推销期的限制。

    所以,代销发行仅适用于证券市场不发达、金融市场秩序不良、机构投资者缺乏承销条件和积极性的情况。

    承购包销发行方式,指大宗机构投资者组成承购包销团,按一定条件向财政部承购包销国债,并由其负责在市场上转售,任何未能售出的余额均由承销者包购。这种 发行方式的特征是:(1)承购包销的初衷是要求承销者向社会再出售,发行条件的确定,由作为发行体的财政部与承销团达成协议,一切承购手续完成后,国债方 能与投资者见面,因而承销者是作为发行主体与投资者间的媒介而存在的;(2)承购包销是用经济手段发行国债的标志,并可用招标方式决定发行条件,是国债发 行转向市场化的一种形式。

    公开招标发行方式,指作为国债发行体的财政部直接向大宗机构投资者招标,投资者中标认购后,没有再向社会销售的义务,因而中标者即为国债认购者,当然中标 者也可以按一定价格向社会再行出售。相对承购包销发行方式,公开招标发行不仅实现了发行者与投资者的直接见面,减少了中间环节,而且使竞争和其他市场机制 通过投资者对发行条件的自主选择投标而得以充分体现,有利于形成公平合理的发行条件,也有利于缩短发行期限,提高市场效率,降低发行体的发行成本,是国债 发行方式市场化的进一步加深。

    拍卖发行方式,指在拍卖市场上,按照例行的经常性的拍卖方式和程序,由发行主体主持,公开向投资者拍卖国债,完全由市场决定国债发行价格与利率。国债的拍 卖发行实际是在公开招标发行基础上更加市场化的做法,是国债发行市场高度发展的标志。由于该种发行方式更加科学合理、高效,所以目前西方发达国家的国债发 行多采用这种形式。

    (二)二级市场概况

    根据市场组织形式,债券流通市场又可进一步分为场内交易市场和场外交易市场。

    1、证券交易所

    是专门进行证券买卖的场所,如我国的上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所。在证券交易所内买卖债券所形成的市场,就是场内交易市场,这种市场组织形式是债券流 通市场的较为规范的形式,交易所作为债券交易的组织者,本身不参加债券的买卖和价格的决定,只是为债券买卖双方创造条件,提供服务,并进行监管。场外交易 市场是在证券交易所以外进行证券交易的市场。
   
    2、柜台市场

    为场外交易市场的主体。许多证券经营机构都设有专门的证券柜台,通过柜台进行债券买卖。在柜台交易市场中,证券经营机构既是交易的组织者,又是交易的参与 者,此外,场外交易市场还包括银行间交易市场,以及一些机构投资者通过电话、电脑等通讯手段形成的市场等。目前,我国债券流通市场由三部分组成,即沪深证 券交易所市场、银行间交易市场和证券经营机构柜台交易市场。

二、 债券市场结构 
    为了让投资者直观地看出我国目前债券市场的发行结构,我们统计了2008年1月1日以来的债券发行情况和现存尚未到期债券情况:

    1、2008年1月1日以来发行情况

 
类别
发行期数()
发行期数比重(%)
发行总额(亿元)
发行总额比重(%)
国债
3
1.796407186
849.1
3.608524209
企业债
10
5.988023952
284.9
1.210774405
金融债
16
9.580838323
2719.5
11.55739205
央行票据
37
22.15568862
18350
77.98424123
短期融资券
93
55.68862275
1199.2
5.096387035
证券化资产
8
4.790419162
127.695
0.542681073
合计
167
100
23530.395
100





数据来源:Wind资讯




    上图为2008年1月1日至今债券发行总额结构图,央票的发行总额巨大,近期宏观调控的从紧局面依旧。
    2、 现存尚未到期债券结构
 
类别
债券数量(只)
债券数量比重(%)
票面总额(亿元)
票面总额比重(%)
市值总额(亿元)
市值总额比重(%)
国债
211
17.95744681
81908.25
51.50759548
78928.89495
50.8531847
企业债
271
23.06382979
5553.55
3.492322286
5663.676914
3.64905664
金融债
266
22.63829787
34033.3
21.40167137
34031.8462
21.92641568
央行票据
119
10.12765957
33470
21.04744297
32969.63545
21.24204275
短期融资券
271
23.06382979
3643.2
2.291008193
3615.291625
2.329300225
证券化资产
37
3.14893617
413.3923
0.259959691
0
0
合计
1175
100
159021.6923
100
155209.3451
100







数据来源:Wind资讯





    下图为现存尚未到期的债券总市值图,可以看出国债占据了半壁江山,其次是央票和金融债,企业债市场刚刚兴起。


港股开户 交易投资的便捷通道—— 东航国际金融网上营业厅:
网址:http://www.kiiik.com/hk/index.html


蓝海密剑—中国金融投资2009-2010期货实盘交易精英选拔赛

创业板解禁股疯狂出逃 被指三年内崩盘?

创业板解禁股疯狂出逃 被指三年内崩盘?
 
  神话破灭引发股价崩盘 创业板还埋有多少地雷

从创业板发行端输入的“三高”症,到今年高成长神话破灭引发股价崩盘,到近期高管大批量恐慌套现,再到本周吉峰农机“行贿门”、沃森生物“流产门”, 市场有理由担心,始乱终弃的“危房”之下,创业板还埋有多少地雷? 从创业板发行端输入的“三高”症,到今年高成长神话破灭引发股价崩盘,到近期高管大批量恐慌套现,再到本周吉峰农机“行贿门”、沃森生物“流产门,市场 有理由担心,始乱终弃的“危房”之下,创业板还埋有多少地雷?

或许是,要孵化“中国的微软和苹果”的期待而预留的呵护和宽容,据称是十年磨一剑的中国创业板,自2009年10月“出世”,便以高市盈率、高发行 价、高融资额的“三高”症傲视江湖。高达80倍以上的平均发行市盈率,羞煞发行市盈率不足20倍的美国和中国香港创业板市场。高发行市盈率下的高发行价、 高融资额乐坏了上市公司、保荐商和承销商以及相关中介机构。“三高”症不只是扭曲了投资市 场的价值体系,不只是“突击入股”、寻租腐败、魅影潜行的温床,其灌注的“堰塞湖”的溃堤,更让二级市场的小散们损失惨重,而其36%的破发率也让一级市 场的中签人遭遇中签如中刀的“通杀”。症结何在?伪市场化的新股询价制使然。上市公司、保荐商和承销商左右发行价的话语权,而询价机构鲜有谈判议价能力。

创业板运行一年多来, “三高乱象”一直未能在制度层面得到纠偏,倒是其自身暴露的问题,打破了神话传奇。

所谓路遥知马力,创业板才跑路一年多,高成长神话破灭便引发了系统性股价崩盘。本报统计显示,2010年整个创业板净利同比增速只有30.9%,低于 中小板的31.7%和主板市场的39.2%。进入2011年一季报,业绩同样不容乐观,212家公司有48家业绩同比下降或亏损,占比高达23%,而其中 不少是刚上市的新股。业绩是股价的基石,基石摇晃,马儿自然颠倒。今年以来,沪指涨1.79%,中小板小跌9.77%,但创业板暴跌22.38%。对比之 下,足见创业板神话破灭后引爆的风险。

股价暴跌,小散苦闷。而创业板公司高管在暴跌途中的恐慌弃逃,更让人大跌眼镜。本报统计发现,今年1月和2月,创业板指数在1000点以上,高管减持 仅为237万股和252万股,减持金额分别为7697万元和5940万元。然而,随着3月下旬创业板开始暴跌,当月高管减持股份骤增至1974万股,套现 金额达6.09亿元,是前两个月总额的3.5倍。5月以来,创业板指数跌至900点以下,高管套现再度升温,仅5月3日到5月12日8个交易日,创业板高 管减持便高达2318万股,超过3月全月的水平。比较典型的是乐普医疗总经理蒲忠杰,其通过大宗交易一举减持1500万股,占本人持股的18.47%,金 额达3.73亿元。据统计,仅最近一个季度内高管净减持的创业板公司达49家。创业板公司目前虽有 200多家,但允许减持即上市满一年的不过79家;加上一个季度前减持的恐怕比例已超过7成。而最近一个季度内被净增持的公司不足10家,且最大增持量也 不过6万多股。

当然,即便股价被腰斩,高管们的原始股套现仍将获得暴利。

几轮下跌后,创业板二级市场的平均市盈率已跌至40倍附近,但成群结队的高管仍在用脚投票,相关创业板公司的前景让普通投资人不寒而栗。

本周爆出的新闻似乎证明高管们弃逃有理。

媒体报道,继去年中小板公司联信永益的董事长、总经理等人因行贿被刑拘后,创业板公司吉峰农机再爆行贿事件,两个相关责任人已被逮捕。“行贿门”击倒这只曾经的创业板牛股, 股民受灾严重。另一则消息是沃森生物的“流产门”。5月17日,沃森生物连发3则公告,宣告相关疫苗项目流产。而据此前的招股书显示,公司与国际知名疫苗 厂商已于上市前就展开了合作,但本次公告却将相关协议全部推翻。曾经发行价高达95元的创业板“疫苗新贵”,昨日收盘仅53.03 元。

“业绩门”、“行贿门”、“流产门”,地雷频频炸响,难怪高管们始乱终弃。翻检200多只创业板个股K线图,傲然挺立者屈指可数,大多呈现的是飞流直下的图景,这其中,还有多少地雷没有炸响?

重庆商报

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

前5个月中小板募资额骤降四成 增发成上市公司主要融资手段

前5个月中小板募资额骤降四成 增发成上市公司主要融资手段

  本报讯 时隔3个月后,本周市场再次出现8只新股密集申购,因此扩容被认为是导致A股大跌的原因之一。但是数据统计显示,今年前5个月市场总融资量同比持平的情况下,发行新股数量最多的中小板首发募资骤降四成,增发却成为主板公司融资主力

  数据统计显示,截至5月24日,今年近5个月时间里,两市总计募资2907.47亿元,比去年同期的2999.03亿元相比仅差91.56亿元,募资额基本持平。从板块分布来看,深沪主板募资1842.64亿元,中小板和创业板分别为585.09亿元和479.74亿元。尽管中小板与创业板上市公司家数占绝对优势,但合计募资额不足主板的六成。

  之所以造成这种差异不是因为主板发行了多少只新股,而是主板公司再融资密集。今年以来深沪主板增发募资958.43亿元,配股170.82亿元,可转债295.2亿元,合计再融资金额达1424.45亿元。而沪深主板的新股发行融资仅为418.19亿元,与创业板和中小板400亿元的水平相差无几,沪深主板再融资是其首发募资额的3.4倍。不过,主板公司的增发绝大多数为非公开发行,仅有长安汽车、长江证券等两家公司是公开发行,因此主板公司再融资对整体市场影响有限。

  各种募资类型显示,今年以来,首发募资1377.77亿元,平均每家募资仅为10.68亿元,创下2007年以来的新低;增发1057.62亿元,配股176.88亿元。从各板块募资情况看,中小板66家公司发行新股、再融资,累计募资585.09亿元,其中首发募资479.84亿元,增发99.19亿元,配股6.07亿元。与去年前5个月1090.02亿元的募资额相比,降幅达46.32%。

  沪市今年发行的15只个股中,目前已上市的仅三江购物募资额低于10亿,同时该股以84.58%的首日涨幅创下今年以来的沪市纪录。而华锐风电、庞大集团2只募资额超过50亿的个股,上市首日均以下跌报收。

  (大众证券报 记者 李宇欣)