Monday, February 27, 2012

10 investment lessons from Jeremy Grantham

Commentary: Expect more from yourself than cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market

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By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Warren Buffett has said that if you look around cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 poker table and you can’t spot cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 patsy, you’re it. In that spirit, anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r famed investor, Jeremy Grantham, is trying to deal investors a better hand.
Jeremy Grantham
The chief investment strategist of Boston-based institutional money manager GMO LLC doesn’t mince words. In Grantham’s view, outlined in a quarterly letter published late Friday, individuals launched into cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market have embarked on “dangerous investment voyages” that threaten to separate cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir money. They hear cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 tempting call of countless stock-market sirens — self-interested cheerleaders and barkers who promise that it’s different this time, and that you must buy now or miss cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 boat. Read more: Grantham: 'The Longest Quarterly Letter Ever.'
Making cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 journey even more perilous is that stocks around cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world are eicá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r fairly priced or nearly so, he says. Investors who buy now can expect meager returns over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next seven years. GMO forecasts that after figuring for 2.5% annualized inflation, U.S. large-cap stocks — namely cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500 Index SPX -0.36%  — are poised to give slightly less than 1% yearly, while U.S. small caps will lose 1.5% annualized over that time.
The best part of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. market will be high-quality stocks, reflecting about 25% of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500, with an expected 5% yearly gain, according to GMO. In that case, Grantham points out, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 remaining 75% of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 index would post a slightly negative return.
Expected returns are more respectable outside of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 United States, GMO predicts. Annualized gains from large-cap international stocks could be 5.2%, and 5.6% from emerging markets. Small caps lag overseas as well, with a 3.8% forecasted return.
All bonds, in turn, are money-losers after inflation over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next seven years, with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 exception of emerging-markets bonds, GMO predicts.

This market is quiet. Too quiet.

Are we in a complacent market? Steven Russolillo talks with Evan Newmark. (Photo: Getty Images)
Standing at this high-stakes table, Grantham has dealt investors 10 fresh cards, each with a piece of common-sense advice for today’s investment climate. The wisdom hearkens to anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r important list for investors from Bob Farrell, a veteran equity strategist, whose “Market Rules to Remember” is required reading. Read more: Bob Farrell's 10 investing rules, tailor-made for tough markets.
Sure, some of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se chestnuts may seem like platitudes, but only cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 foolhardy would wager that Grantham is bluffing:

1. Believe in history

The S&P 500 on Friday closed at its highest level since June 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI -0.37% , meanwhile, is flirting with 13,000. After a dismal 2011, small-cap stocks are leading cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. market. If it seems like cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 worst is over — don’t believe it, according to Grantham.
“All bubbles break; all investment frenzies pass,” he says. “The market is gloriously inefficient and wanders far from fair price, but eventually, after breaking your heart and your patience … it will go back to fair value. Your task is to survive until that happens.”

2. ‘Neicá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r a lender nor a borrower be’

Never borrow to invest. Period.
“Leverage reduces cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 investor’s critical asset: patience,” Grantham says. But excessive debt is even more insidious. “It encourages financial aggressiveness, recklessness and greed.”
Debt has ruined countries, communities, corporations and consumers. “It has proven so seductive that individuals en masse have shown cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365mselves incapable of resisting it, as if it were a drug,” he writes.

3. Don’t put all of your treasure in one boat

Obvious, yes, but worth repeating. Diversification isn’t about returns, after all. It’s about resilience, Grantham says. “The more investments you have and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 more different cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 more likely you are to survive those critical periods when your big bets move against you.” 

4. Be patient and focus on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 long term

“Wait for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 good cards,” he says. When you find something to buy, you don’t have to act immediately. Wait for it to hit your price range. As Grantham explains, “this will be your margin of safety.”
Now comes cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 hard part: handling cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 pain of investment losses. But often cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 suffering is worth it. As Grantham notes, “individual stocks usually recover, entire markets always do. … Outlast cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bad news.”

5. Recognize your advantages over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 professionals

Patience is one of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 key advantages individuals have over traders and money managers. Yet many people squander that edge, reacting to day-to-day events and chasing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest hot stock or sector. “The individual is far better positioned to wait patiently for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 right pitch while paying no regard to what ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs are doing.”
Such a luxury is “almost impossible” for professionals, Grantham says. Wall Street, he adds, worries about jobs, careers, bonuses and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 like, needing to look busy (read: costly, frequent trading) to earn cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir keep.

6. Try to contain natural optimism

Nobody likes a Debbie Downer, but on Wall Street it’s bad for business, Grantham notes; many a professional has been fired for being too bearish. (See job security, above.)
Optimism can win friends and influence people, but it’s a lousy investment strategy. You have to be willing to hear bearish, bad news about cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 risks you’ve taken with your money — and to make informed decisions about it, Grantham says. That’s doubly true at times when buyers and brokers are exuberant.

7. On rare occasions, try hard to be brave

Professional investors often spot bargains, but (and this is key) cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y can’t and don’t always act on it.
That’s because cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price of being wrong, even for a few months, is just too high, according to Grantham. A manager who lags his or her peers for a couple of quarters will start to get probing questions from disgruntled clients. If those clients pull cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir money, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 manager’s bosses will get upset. If cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y get upset, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y may decide that someone else is better for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 job.
Individuals don’t have that worry. So if you find an investment that looks cheap, even if it’s likely to be out of favor for a while, trust your research. Says Grantham: “If cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 numbers tell you it’s a real outlier of a mispriced market, grit your teeth and go for it.”

8. Resist cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 crowd; cherish numbers only

Market bubbles and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 madness of crowds are exciting — until cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y’re not. Hard as it might be, don’t jump in because everyone else is, Grantham advises. “Ignore especially cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 short-term news. The ebb and flow of economic and political news is irrelevant.”
What is relevant? Numbers. “Do your own simple measurements of value or find a reliable source,” Grantham says.

9. In cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end it’s quite simple. really

Stocks are bought and sold based on expectations for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 future value of a company’s dividends and earnings. So if a stock is trading at a discount to its long-term earnings multiple, investors can assume that over time cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 gap will narrow and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price will rise. Conversely, if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 shares are priced above average, it’s likely cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price will decline — and return to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mean — over time.
Estimates and forecasts such as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ones GMO makes for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next seven years aren’t complicated, Grantham says. “These estimates are not about nuances or Ph.D.s. They are about ignoring cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 crowd, working out simple ratios and being patient.”

10. ‘This above all: To thine own self be true’

William Shakespeare probably would have been a great investor, with his deep knowledge of human nature and foibles. Take a page from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Bard, Grantham suggests, and save yourself a lot of money and mistakes in investing.
“It is utterly imperative that you know your limitations as well as your strengths and weaknesses,” he says. “You must know your pain and patience thresholds accurately and not play over your head. If you cannot resist temptation, you absolutely must not manage your own money.”
In that case, Grantham notes, hire a skilled manager or buy an inexpensive global stock-index fund and don’t look at it until you retire.
“On cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r hand, if you have patience, a decent pain threshold, an ability to withstand herd mentality, perhaps one credit of college-level math and a reputation for common sense, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n go for it.
“In my opinion, you hold enough cards and will beat most professionals (which is sadly, but realistically, a relatively modest hurdle) and may even do very well indeed.”
Jona

Monday, February 6, 2012

SOHO中国“烂尾”阵痛

SOHO中国“烂尾”阵痛

 本文来源于证券市场周刊 2012年02月06日 11:54 我要评论(0)


依靠烂尾楼,SOHO中国创造了独特的“烂尾经济”,毛利率及存货周转率远远高于同行。一声“不再考虑烂尾楼”的背后,夹杂着潘石屹的危与机。


“烂尾楼专业户”不收烂尾楼了?SOHO中国(0410.HK)董事长潘石屹近日接受媒体采访时表示,“2012年公司将谨慎收缩战线,并购目标仅针对土地,‘烂尾楼’、在建工程等将不再考虑。”此言一出,SOHO中国股价应声而落,5个交易日连续下跌近10%。

本刊统计发现,“烂尾楼改造工程”并非SOHO中国的“非经常性项目”,而是“主营业务”。若实施潘石屹所说的“不收烂尾楼”政策,SOHO中国的盈利能力将有待观察。

新增项目半数来自烂尾

建外SOHO一炮打响之后,SOHO中国的精力更多转移到从价值洼地中挖掘出某个项目,套上自己的品牌,简单包装一番,借助超强的营销能力,以成倍的价格卖出去。从开创散售模式到淘金烂尾楼,SOHO中国可谓迈入了更高的段位:由买地卖房子升级到买房子卖品牌,利用成功的惯性,做起了“一本万利”的生意。

SOHO中国收购烂尾楼的密集期要从2007年算起。作为SOHO中国上市后的首笔交易,潘石屹一口气从华远集团购得两处烂尾楼——“民源大厦”和“北京公馆”,更名为“光华SOHOII”和“SOHO北京公馆”。从此,SOHO中国大量收购北京上海两地的烂尾项目。

SOHO中国2009年至今做过的18个项目中,有9个在接手前是空置、烂尾,占据半壁江山(见表1)。业内也将“烂尾楼专业户”的称号赠予了SOHO中国。

不过,2010年5月北京官方出台禁止物业散售政策之后,SOHO中国转战上海,收购烂尾楼的机会减少。而楼市调控令SOHO中国的销售遭遇滑铁卢,营销体系出现动荡,负债攀升存货高企,大捡烂尾楼快钱的模式遭遇挑战,何去何从关系到公司未来的命运。

“二手货”支撑高利润

易城中国提供的数据显示,2011年三季度,北京甲级写字楼平均售价季度为30620元/平方米,而SOHO中国的写字楼售价早在2007年上市的时候就已达35775元/平方米,2010年则达到59824元/平方米,年复合增长率近20%,且一直高于周边住宅价格。

高售价使得SOHO中国的净利率远超房地产行业平均13%的水平。在2009年达到45.7%, 2007年和2010年分别达到28.58%和20.71%。

在房地产行业里,“高周转”和“高利润率”往往不可兼得。SOHO中国能够两者兼备,烂尾楼功不可没。

2007年,SOHO中国的存货周转率是万科的两倍多;2010年,SOHO中国的存货周转率是万科的3倍。但在经济波动期,SOHO中国则不如万科“货如轮转”(见表2)。

SOHO中国收购过来的“二手货”不但创造了高毛利率,还使周转率又上了一个台阶。众所周知,SOHO中国项目数量不多,不以拿地能力见长。故“戒掉”烂尾楼,SOHO中国如何保持业绩令人产生高度怀疑。

以SOHO中山广场为例。2011年5月6日SOHO以32亿元总额收购上海新世纪长宁商业中心的A、B幢办公楼及地下室,更名为“SOHO中山广场”,收购均价2.25万元/平方米。在完成收购3个月后,即2011年8月14日,SOHO中国正式对外销售。在不到半个月的时间里,SOHO中山广场完成合同销售金额14.33亿元,销售均价4.88万元/平方米,翻了一倍。

2009年11月收购的北京嘉盛中心项目同样如此。收购均价22718元/平方米,两个月后启动销售,平均售价为43000元/平方米,比收购价格高出约89%。更为重要的是,有价又有市,成交火爆。开盘首日就售出47000平方米(首期总面积的80%),录得合同销售收入20.8亿元人民币,收回了总投资的约90%。

周期只有两个月?而且价格翻一倍?还有比这更惊人的周转速度和毛利率吗!周转最快的住宅开发商从拿地到开始销售也至少需要半年时间,封顶、售罄能在一年半内完成已经很神奇了。

SOHO中国之所以能这样操作,得益于商业地产的品牌护城河。商业地产不同于住宅,对品牌和客户渠道的依赖性强。

戒掉烂尾需付出代价

不过,当品牌内涵越来越稀释的时候,非理性繁荣只会产生“温水煮青蛙”的效果,潘石屹显然已意识到了危机。

潘石屹认为,1998年-2010年,房地产业经历的高速成长期是行业发展的“上半场”,房地产商注意力基本上都放在“圈地”、“融资”和“研究政策”上。如果说2011年是“中场休息”的话,2012年则进入“下半场”。

根据潘石屹的观点,进入下半场后,以前通过圈地、捂盘坐等土地溢价收益的房地产开发模式将不再奏效,房地产行业将回归平均利润率。届时,房地产商将注重产品的设计水准及项目品质的提升。因此,SOHO中国从今年起将不再收购“烂尾楼”和在建工程。不过SOHO中国已深陷烂尾楼中。

熊市中,SOHO中国销售大幅放缓。根据SOHO中国最新透露的销售数据显示,2011年1-11月,SOHO中国共实现销售108亿元,而2010年同期则为192.9亿元。

销售的放缓引发了投行对SOHO中国业绩的担忧,高盛在12月8日发表研究报告称,SOHO中国从9月份起整体销售已渐见放缓,并将SOHO中国2011至2012年度每股盈利预测下调52%、17%,以反映对其销售预期降35%及36%。

高通智库咨询公司总经理张宏对SOHO中国的商业模式定义为:投行+超级销售员。他解释说,张欣投行出身,收购项目擅长,潘石屹是明星式卖房,两者构成SOHO独有的商业模式。

但去年末的“欠薪门”事件折射出SOHO中国赖以生存的超级销售员体系正在发生震荡。

2009年-2010年,SOHO中国董事会中五位执行董事离职两位,高级管理层中两位副总裁离职,公司董秘魏伟峰亦离职。而在2009年底营运总裁苏鑫离开8个月后,SOHO中国销售人员开始减少。SOHO中国财报披露,2009年12月31日,销售与租务人员392人;2010年北京和上海的销售与租务人员320人;2011年上半年,北京和上海的销售与租务人员缩水至164人。

新华联地产副总吕行告诉本刊记者,SOHO中国实质上已颠覆了销售体系。业绩好的销售人员在没有项目销售状态下,可以选择离开或到租务中心协助客户出租商铺,待新项目开盘销售后,销售人员可选择重新去卖楼。

与此同时,随着前几年SOHO中国收购速度加快,负债和存货屡创新高。

2008年之前,SOHO中国每年收购项目的金额控制在20亿元以内。2006年、2007年、2008年,SOHO中国的投资现金流净额分别为0.41亿元、1.38亿元、21.47亿元。2009年和2010年,SOHO中国的投资猛增,分别达到76.21亿元、66.76亿元。

SOHO中国一直优良的负债结构也出现了变化。SOHO中国的流动比率在2007年和2009年一直维持在2.7,2010年下降到2.03,2011年上半年下降到1.56。

在SOHO中国的资产负债表中,不断攀升的负债另一面是不断堆积的存货。2011年上半年,SOHO中国存货达到历史高点,为228.99亿元。

“戒掉”烂尾楼将使公司短期内周转率下降、ROE变脸,成为SOHO中国难以回避的阵痛。