Friday, January 9, 2015

U.S. Stocks Fall After 2-Day Rally Amid Economy Concerns

U.S. Stocks Fall After 2-Day Rally Amid Economy Concerns

U.S. stocks fell, after a two-day rally in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX), as concern grew that Europe’s stimulus plan might not be sufficient and American wages fell before cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 start of corporate earnings season.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (VIX) fell 0.5 percent to 2,052.12 at 3:20 p.m. in New York, paring an earlier decline of 1.2 percent. The loss sent cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 benchmark index 0.3 percent lower for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 111.65 points, or 0.6 percent, to 17,796.22. Trading in S&P 500 companies was 3.3 percent below cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 30-day average for this time of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 day.
“The laundry list of investor worries is reasserting itself here -- global growth concerns, how cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ECB responds to what’s going on and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 strong dollar,” Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps manage $17 billion at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama, said in a phone interview. “We were looking for wage growth to increase, and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 weaker-than-expected number was disappointing.”
Today’s retreat follows a 3 percent rebound in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500 over two days on speculation that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Federal Reserve will support cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. economy even as it shows signs of strength. The benchmark index recovered more than two thirds of its losses after tumbling 4.2 percent over five days as crude oil plunged below $48 a barrel for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first time since 2009.
Stocks briefly rose at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 start of trading as data showed U.S. employment rose more than forecast in December and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 jobless rate declined to 5.6 percent, wrapping up cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 best year for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 labor market since 1999.
The early gain quickly melted away as investors focused on an unexpected decline in earnings in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Labor Department report. Average hourly earnings for all employees dropped by 0.2 percent, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 biggest since comparable records began in 2006, to $24.57 from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 prior month.

Wage Gap

“The gap is still in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 wage side,” Jim Dunigan, chief investment officer at PNC Bank NA in Philadelphia, which oversees $130 billion, said by phone. “Increasing wages would give some confidence that workers making more money would spur additional demand and that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 recovery can continue to sustain itself. When wages are stagnant it’s hard to convince yourself it’ll spur more demand.”
The U.S. report comes amid cooling markets that stretch from Europe to China. S&P 500 futures fell earlier today after a person familiar with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 matter said European Central Bank staff presented policy makers with models for buying as much as 500 billion euros ($591 billion) of investment-grade assets.
A 500 billion-euro purchase program would take cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ECB halfway toward its goal of boosting its balance sheet to avert a deflationary spiral in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 euro area. Negative euro-area inflation this week bolstered cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 case for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ECB to start quantitative easing at its Jan. 22 meeting.
Policy makers disagree about whecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r action is required, with some arguing deflation risks have increased and ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs pointing to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stimulating effects of lower prices on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 economy.

Fed Rates

In cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S., Fed minutes on Dec. 7 signaled no change in interest-rate policy. Most central bank officials agreed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir new policy guidance means cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y are unlikely to raise interest rates before late April and a number expressed concern inflation could remain too low.
Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said today’s strong jobs report is no reason to speed up cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 timing of an interest-rate increase that he sees occurring in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 middle of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 year or later.
“I don’t see a reason yet to accelerate my assumption of when a policy move might be appropriate,” Lockhart, who votes on monetary policy this year, said in a telephone interview from Atlanta. At cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same time, “clearly this added to accumulated progress with very healthy numbers.”
Earlier, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said low inflation will allow cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 central bank to move gradually when it begins raising interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said higher rates would hinder a recovery in inflation.

Earnings Season

Company earnings reports will show cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500’s earnings per share grew 2 percent in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter of 2014, analysts tracked by Bloomberg estimate. Companies reporting fourth-quarter results next week include Alcoa Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Intel Corp. and Schlumberger Ltd.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rose 0.2 percent to 17.04, after a two-day decline of 19 percent.
Nine of 10 major groups in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500 retreated. Financial, industrial and consumer-discretionary shares had cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 biggest losses, declining more than 1 percent.
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. declined 6.9 percent for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 biggest loss in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500 after saying yearly net sales will rise as much as 3.6 percent, compared with an earlier estimate of 3.9 percent. Comparable sales in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 third quarter gained 1.7 percent, compared with analyst estimates of 2.8 percent.
Starbucks Corp. slipped 3.1 percent after cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world’s largest coffee-shop chain said Chief Operating Officer Troy Alstead will go on leave in March.
Macy’s Inc. fell 2.8 percent after saying it will book as much as $110 million of charges in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fourth quarter related to store closings, restructuring plans, and asset impairments.
Technology shares advances, with Cisco Systems Inc. jumping 1.8 percent for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 best performance in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Dow.
Wynn Resorts Ltd. added 2.2 percent after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 casino and hotel operator to overweight.
To contact cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reporters on this story: Oliver Renick in New York at orenick2@bloomberg.net; Joseph Ciolli in New York at jciolli@bloomberg.net
To contact cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 editors responsible for this story: Cecile Vannucci at cvannucci1@bloomberg.net; Jeff Sucá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rland at jsucá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rlan13@bloomberg.net Jeff Sucá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rland

揭油价暴跌最惨国:卫生纸都缺 通胀高达1000%(图)

揭油价暴跌最惨国:卫生纸都缺 通胀高达1000%(图)

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在这场油价暴跌狂潮中,你还能想到比俄罗斯、沙特更惨的国家吗?没错,正是委内瑞拉。

对于一个石油销售占总出口额96%的国家,油价暴跌便意味着石油美元正在枯竭。不少委内瑞拉超市中的货架和冰柜空空如也,从卫生纸、肥皂到黄油,物资短 缺;更为尴尬的是,可怕的通胀数据高得早已让政府停止了数据发布,截至2014年8月的通胀率已高达63%。其实按照最新黑市价格,真实的通胀率或已飙至 183%。

“委内瑞拉必须贬值其货币,不然通胀有可能最早在2015年突破1000%。”美银美林南美首席经济学家FranciscoRodriguez此前在接受彭博采访时表示。

通胀或飙至1000%

“如果不及时做出汇率调整(委内瑞拉实施汇率管制),三位数的通胀率是肯定的,即使出现四位数通胀率也并不奇怪。”FranciscoRodriguez表示。

委内瑞拉的通胀究竟怎么了?原理很明显,当货币发行量过高时,通胀便诞生了。

由于该国原油出口价格从2014年9月的每桶95美元下跌至每桶48美元,加之实行的是固定汇率制,导致该国货币玻利瓦尔价值有所高估,这也意味着委内瑞拉政府实际上在以低价出售石油赚回美元,同时迫使政策制定者不得不通过增加印钞来满足国内消费需要。

委内瑞拉官方牌价锁定为1美元兑6.3玻利瓦尔。然而,这可能只是假象。据《金融时报》报道,自由市场(或黑市)的美元对玻利瓦尔汇率过去3个月已翻了一番,从9月份的1美元兑90玻利瓦尔涨至现在的1美元兑180玻利瓦尔,这也对改变官方汇率产生压力。

相较之下,对实施浮动汇率的俄罗斯而言,卢布贬值则部分抵消了油价下降带来的重创。

自2014年7月以来,卢布贬值幅度几乎与原油价格同步。由于国际原油市场用美元结算,而俄罗斯统计财政收入却采用卢布,因此,即使油价下跌,通过贬值卢布就可以保证俄罗斯出口石油获得的卢布收益基本不变。

尽管外界大呼,在困境中的OPEC国家是时候动用多年靠出口石油积累的财富了,但沙特可能有钱,委内瑞拉或许真的“山穷水尽”了。

《金融时报》称,委内瑞拉原油日产量仅为区区250万桶(沙特为960万桶),其中有80万桶用于国内消费。此外,它每日还向古巴免费提供10 万桶原油,并向中国提供25万至45万桶原油、用于抵偿从这个亚洲经济强国那里借得的500亿美元贷款,最后委内瑞拉每日只剩下130万至150万桶原油 能够提供收入。以每桶50美元的价格计算,150万桶的日产量每年只能产生273.8亿美元的收入。

要知道,委内瑞拉在2012年光是进口各种商品便花了550亿美元。即使在大大削减了进口量之后,2014年的进口总额猛降至360亿美元左右,仍然超过了石油产生的财政收入。对于一个拥有2900万人口的国家,物资短缺也成了理所当然的情景。

诱人社会福利成“诅咒”?

导致委内瑞拉财政吃紧的另一个原因看似有点“咎由自取”,甚至匪夷所思。该国是OPEC成员国中社会福利最好的国家。

委内瑞拉国民享受着地球上最便宜的汽油,有一种说法是—一升水的价格是一升汽油的十倍,而代价就是该国政府必须为此牺牲高达13%的GDP。

巴克莱此前发布报告称,按照官方汇率计算,委内瑞拉的汽油零售价仅为每加仑0.05美元,折合人民币约为每升1.17元。若按照黑市汇率计算,该国公民仅需为每加仑汽油支付0.01美元。

巴克莱预计,这一社会福利让委内瑞拉政府牺牲了近270亿美元的利润,相当于大约90%的公共部门赤字。

从1998年起,委内瑞拉前总统查韦斯便展开了这一项目—国有化、价格监管和财富再分配。世界银行曾表示,委内瑞拉的社会福利项目让该国贫困人口比例从1998年的大约50%降低到了2012年的30%。

在当前的危难时刻,社会福利能否做出“牺牲”?该国政府一度表示希望上调税率和汽油价格。2014年11月,委内瑞拉总统马杜罗已经公布多项法令,其中包括对奢侈品和烟酒额外征税。

不过,委内瑞拉政府也不会轻举妄动,因为点燃1989年那场大骚乱的导火索就是汽油涨价。

当前,急于挽救委内瑞拉的马杜罗正在中国访问。他于周三宣布,已经与中国方面达成一组新的双边协议,将为委内瑞拉带来急需的200亿美元资金。这些双边协议将以能源、工业以及房地产行业为中心,对此他并未透露更多细节。

Thursday, January 8, 2015

油价暴跌重创美国:页岩油公司开始破产

油价暴跌重创美国:页岩油公司开始破产
http://www.creaders.net  2015-01-08 15:07:59  凤凰网  [0条评论,查看/发表评论]
  据美国媒体报道,因贷款人拒绝提供更多资金,石油公司WBH Energy LP及合作伙伴申请破产保护。市场预期类似的油企破产或将接踵而来。
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  美油企或陷债务危机
  自去年6月国际油价达到阶段高位107美元,至今跌幅已然腰斩。
  据报道,美国页岩油气企业WBH Energy因深陷债务危机,而不得不与其合资方共同宣布申请破产保护,原因是目前该公司的借贷方已表示拒绝向其提供更多的资金支持,且借贷方表示WBH Energy负债金额高达1000万至5000万美元之间。
  美国著名资产管理公司贝雅公司能源分析师卡森伯格指出,大批面临债务违约的油气企业未来将会接踵而至,目前这些企业的资产负债表“实在很丑陋”。
  标普资本IQ公司的统计数据显示,2010年美国石油和天然气企业,总债务为1280亿美元,截至2014年第三季度时,这些油气企业的债务已经暴增至1990亿美元,增幅高达55%。
  业内人士警告称,如果国际油价继续下挫,而美国油气企业的营收增长速度不能抵消负债增加速度,那么美国能源业可能将会出现资产抛售与企业并购潮,不排除届时会接连出现破产倒闭的可能性。
  值得一提的是,目前美国油企的营收增长幅度并不高。彭博数据显示,2013年9月至2014年9月一年时间内,美国油气企业的营收比起2010年同期仅增加36%。上述统计中不包括诸如埃克森美孚、雪佛龙等能源巨头,因为其业务线并不仅仅是石油和天然气,还包括经营炼油、化学与输油管线等。
  与此同时,美国能源企业近来非但没有减产,反而不断增产,其主要目的就是为了还债。美国投研机构伯恩斯坦高级石油分析师贝弗里奇指出,在油价下跌的背景下,特别是那些以“上游作业”出名的参与勘探和生产的企业将会非常脆弱,因为这类企业在生产中投入过多资金、负债累累,其较高的成本在过低的油价环境中收回成本将十分困难,偿债能力可想而知。
  伯恩斯坦还指出,目前美能源公司发行的债券占美国垃圾债券的15%,而四年前这一比例还不及5%。该机构的投资组合经理沙宾斯基表示,那些利用杠杆融资来勘探和生产的小型油企,在利润受到挤压的情况下,破产压力也随之加大。
  破产重组案例将大增
  眼下,美国数十家小型石油公司陆续宣布关停其投资的所有油井。美国鹰能公司1月5日宣布,该公司已经暂停了2015年的钻井预算,并表示在油价复苏前不太可能恢复相关业务。目前,该公司的业务主要集中在巴肯和Three Forks页岩油构造区。
  标准普尔研究显示,在美国100家中小型页岩油企中,有四分之三由于高负债面临破产倒闭的风险。该研究指出,如果不出意外,2015年第一季度大部分美国页岩油企将会面临银行信用额度的缩减,外加营收下降,这些企业将被迫削减资本支出。
  分析人士指出,当前美国页岩油行业的命运主要取决于油价在低价位还会维持多久。通常情况下,石油行业从削减资本开支到产量下降,会有半年左右的时滞,鉴于此,2015年下半年页岩油井的产出率将会出现大幅下降局面。
  由于页岩油井产出率半年后才会大幅下降,这需要大量的投资才能维持产出水平不变,所以资本支出的下降将会导致页岩油企减产,这将迫使美国页岩油行业进入恶性循环的怪圈。因此,业内人士指出,2015年下半年,会有一大波高负债、开采成本高的页岩油企宣布破产重组。
  里昂证券分析师指出,债台高筑、支出计划规模过大,流动性差的美国石油公司最终会陷入一场生存竞赛,“谁都想成为最后一个减产者”。
  不过,对于北美地区的一些大型石油公司来说,他们虽也宣布在今年缩减资本支出、减少新的勘探活动的同时,但他们仍表示石油产量将继续上升,以避免进入恶性怪圈。
  美国页岩油行业大佬Harold Hamm表示油价不久后就将反弹,他认为沙特石油部长接二连三的不减产表态是在虚张声势,他强调现有油价下沙特将无力长期维持高昂的社会福利开支。无独有偶,美国总统奥巴马1月7日也警告美国消费者,油价不会长期这么低,提醒消费者应明智地利用低油价降低成本产生的节余,仍需要考虑如何节约能源方面的支持,以应对未来油价反弹的必然局面。
- See more at: http://news.creaders.net/us/2015/01/08/1475729.html#sthash.QgxRkdRq.dpuf
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Natural gas futures waver as traders weigh shifting weacá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r forecasts

Natural gas futures waver as traders weigh shifting weacá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r forecasts

CommoditiesJan 07, 2015 02:52PM GMT Add a Comment
 
© Reuters.  Natural gas fluctuates as traders monitor shifting weather forecasts © Reuters. Natural gas fluctuates as traders monitor shifting weacá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r forecasts
Investing.com - U.S. natural gas prices swung between gains and losses in choppy trade on Wednesday, as market players continued to assess cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 outlook for U.S. demand and supply levels.

On cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in February tacked on 2.4 cents, or 0.82%, to trade at $2.962 per million British cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rmal units during U.S. morning hours. Prices traded in a range between $2.913 and $2.989.

A day earlier, natural gas rallied 5.6 cents, or 1.94%, to settle at $2.938.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.805 per million British cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rmal units, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 low from January 2, and resistance at $3.176, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 high from January 5.

Updated weacá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r forecast models continued to call for frigid temperatures in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 key Norcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ast and Midwest markets in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next three-to-five days, boosting near-term demand expectations for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 heating fuel.

However, extended forecasts showed higher readings were expected for most of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 nation from January 16 through January 20.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weacá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 impact of shifting forecasts on winter heating demand.

The heating season from November through March is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

Meanwhile, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report slated for release on Thursday is expected to show a drop of 133 billion cubic feet for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 week ending January 2.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.220 trillion cubic feet, 2.5% below year-ago levels and 7.8% below cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 five-year average for this time of year.

Elsewhere on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Nymex, crude oil for delivery in February jumped 77 cents, or 1.61%, to trade at $48.70 a barrel, while heating oil for February delivery slumped 1.24% to trade at $1.706 per gallon.

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

How $50 Oil Changes Almost Everything

How $50 Oil Changes Almost Everything


Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- David Woo of Bank of America Merrill Lynch discusses falling oil prices and possible deflation in Europe. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”
The plummeting price of oil means no more trout ice cream.
Coromoto, a parlor in Merida, Venezuela, famous for its 900 flavors, closed during its busiest season in November because of a milk shortage caused by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country’s 64 percent inflation rate, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world’s fastest.
That’s cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 plight of an oil-producing nation. At cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same time, consuming countries like cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. are taking advantage. Trucks, which burn more gasoline, outsold cars in December by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 most since 2005, according to data from Ward’s Automotive Group.
The biggest collapse in energy prices since cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 2008 global recession is shifting wealth and power from autocratic petro-states to industrialized consumers, which could make cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world safer, according to a Berenberg Bank AG report. Surging U.S. shale supply, weakening Asian and European demand and a stronger dollar are pushing oil past threshold after threshold to a five-and-half-year low, with a dip below $40 a barrel “not out of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 question,” said Rob Haworth, a Seattle-based senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $120 billion.
Oil prices are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 big story for 2015,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economics professor. “They are a once-in-a-generation shock and will have huge reverberations.”
Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Travis Simmons, a driver for Yo-Mac Transport, stores a filling hose after delivering... Read More

Weak Prices

Brent crude, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 international benchmark, fell as low as $49.66 a barrel today, dropping below $50 for first time since 2009. Prices dropped 48 percent in 2014 after three years of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 highest average prices in history. West Texas Intermediate, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. benchmark, plunged to as low as $46.83 today, about a 56 percent decline from its June high.
“We see prices remaining weak for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 whole of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first half” of 2015, said Gareth Lewis-Davies, an analyst at BNP Paribas in London.
If cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price falls past $39 a barrel, we could see it go as low as $30 a barrel, said Walter Zimmerman, chief technical strategist for United-ICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey, who projected cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 2014 drop.
“Where prices bottom will be based on an emotional decision,” Zimmerman said. “It won’t be based on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 supply-demand fundamentals, so it’s guaranteed to be overdone to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 downside.”
The biggest winner would be cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Philippines, whose economic growth would accelerate to 7.6 percent on average over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next two years if oil fell to $40, while Russia would contract 2.5 percent over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same period, according to an Oxford Economics Ltd.’s December analysis of 45 national economies.
Photographer: Andrew Burton/Getty Images
U.S. shale oil production.

Inflation Outlook

Among advanced economies, Hong Kong is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 biggest winner, while Saudi Arabia, Russia and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 United Arab Emirates fare cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 worst, according to Oxford Economics.
One concern of central bankers is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 effect of falling oil prices on inflation. If crude remains below $60 per barrel this quarter, global inflation will reach levels not seen since cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 worldwide recession ended in 2009, according to JP Morgan Securities LLC economists led by Bruce Kasman in New York.
Kasman and his team are already predicting global inflation to reach 1.5 percent in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first half of this year, while sustained weakness in oil suggest a decline to 1 percent, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y said.

Negative Inflation

The euro area would probably witness negative inflation, while rates in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S., U.K. and Japan also would weaken to about 0.5 percent. For what it calls price stability, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Federal Reserve’s inflationtarget is 2 percent. Emerging-market inflation would also fade although lower currencies and policies aimed at slowing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 effects on retail prices may limit cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fall.
As for growth, a long-lasting price of $60 would add 0.5 percentage point to global gross domestic product, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365y estimate.
Even as cheaper fuel stimulates cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 global economy, it could aggravate political tension by squeezing government revenue and social benefits, Citigroup Inc. analysts said in a Jan. 5 report.
Eicá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r way, previously unthinkable events now look more likely. Byron Wien, a Blackstone Group LP vice chairman, predicting that Russian President Vladimir Putin will resign in 2015 and Iran will agree to stop its nuclear program.

Iran Losses

Iran is already missing tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue due to Western sanctions and years of economic mismanagement under former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
President Hassan Rouhani, elected on a pledge of prosperity to be achieved by ending Iran’s global isolation, is facing a falling stock market and weakening currency. Iranian officials are warning of spending and investment cuts in next year’s budget, which will be based on $72-a-barrel crude. Even that forecast is proving too optimistic.
“Iran will stumble along with less growth and development,” said Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a professor of economics at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Virginia, who specializes in Iran’s economy. “The oil price fall is not reason enough for Iran to compromise.”
The Russian economy may shrink 4.7 percent this year if oil averages $60 a barrel under a “stress scenario,” cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 central bank said in December. The plunge in crude prices prompted a selloff in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ruble with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Russian currency falling to a record low against cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 dollar last month and tumbling 46 percent last year, its worst performance since 1998, when Russia defaulted on local debt.

Russian Production

“The risk is that, as a badly-wounded and cornered bear, Russia may turn more aggressive in its increasing desperation, threatening global peace and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 European economic outlook,” said Holger Schmieding, Berenberg Bank’s London-based chief economist. However, “cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 massive blow to Russia’s economic capabilities should –- over time –- make it less likely that Russia will wage anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r war.”
Russian oil production rose to a post-Soviet record last month, showing how pumping of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 nation’s biggest source of revenue has so far been unaffected by U.S. and European sanctions or a price collapse. The nation increased output to 10.667 million barrels a day, according to preliminary data from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Energy Ministry on Jan. 2. That compares with global consumption of 93.3 million barrels a day, based on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 International Energy Agency’s estimate for 2015.
Venezuela, which relies on oil for 95 percent of its export revenue, risks insolvency, Jefferies LLC said in a Jan. 6 note. The cost of insuring cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country’s five-year debt has tripled since July, Citigroup said. President Nicolas Maduro is visiting China to discuss financing and expects to travel to ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r OPEC nations to work out a pricing strategy.

Confounding Investors

The U.S., still a net oil importer, would accelerate economic growth to 3.8 percent in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next two years with oil at $40 a barrel, compared with 3 percent at $84, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Oxford Economics study found. The boost to consumers could be offset by oil companies’ scaling back investments, according to Kate Moore, chief investment strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank. Producers are cutting spending by 20 percent to 40 percent, according to Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.
The mixed picture is confounding investors. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of U.S. equities fell 1.9 percent on Jan. 5, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 biggest decline since October, as oil brought down energy shares and stoked concerns that global growth is slowing.
While cheaper oil helps consumers, business spending has a bigger effect on equities, and oil companies are set to cut investments. Oil at $50 a barrel could trim $6 a share off earnings in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365S&P 500 Index this year, according to Savita Subramanian and Dan Suzuki, New York-based strategists at Bank of America Corp.
Bets on high energy prices have mashed share prices of companies such as Ford Motor Co., Tesla Motors Inc. and Boeing Co.

Redistributes Income

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), one of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 regional lenders that tried to chase cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fracking boom, is down 12 percent since June 20.
Caterpillar Inc., Joy Global Inc., Allegheny Technologies Inc., Dover Corp., Jacobs Engineering Group and Quanta Services Inc. are all down more than 20 percent since oil peaked at almost $108.
Despite those losses, Morgan Stanley last month concluded cheaper fuel is a net benefit for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. economy.
“Any massive redistribution of income can raise political tensions,” Schmieding of Berenberg Bank said in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Jan. 6 report. “But, net/net, strengcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ning cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S., Europe, Japan, China and India, while weakening Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, is likely to make cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 world a safer place in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 end.”
Brent traded at $50.88 a barrel and WTI at $48.03 as of 12:03 p.m. London time.
To contact cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reporters on this story: Isaac Arnsdorf in New York at iarnsdorf@bloomberg.net; Simon Kennedy in London at skennedy4@bloomberg.net
To contact cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 editors responsible for this story: Bob Ivry at bivry@bloomberg.net Bruce Stanley, Rachel Graham

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Why Oil Is Dragging Down cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P

Why Oil Is Dragging Down cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P


Why does falling oil, a boon to consumers, keep knocking down cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Standard & Poor’s 500 Index? To Bank of America Corp., it’s because of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 possibility companies will cancel plans for capital spending.
Earnings in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 benchmark gauge for American equities may be as much as $6 a share lower than analysts forecast this year should oil stay below $50 a barrel, according to Savita Subramanian and Dan Suzuki, New York-based strategists at Bank of America. The S&P 500 (SPX) has declined 4.2 percent since Dec. 29, sliding for five straight days as West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $49 a barrel for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first time since 2009.
While cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 55 percent retreat in oil since June is good for stores and restaurants, it’s a mistake to overestimate cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 importance of those industries to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500, Suzuki said. Equities take a bigger cue from business spending, and because so much of that is tied to commodities cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 net effect of lower oil on earnings over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next few months is negative.
“The direct impact to profits in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 energy sector and energy-related companies in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 industrials sector far outweighs cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 positive impact on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 consumer sectors,” Suzuki said by telephone. “The positive impact for ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r sectors is actually pretty muted.”

Cut Projections

The tumble in crude prices has prompted energy-stock analysts to slash estimates for capital expenditure for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next year, cutting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m as much as 9.1 percent since July, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Oil-and-gas companies are expected to lower investment by 6 percent in 2015, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 most in six years.
Industrial companies will also slash capital spending this year by 15 percent, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first decline since 2009, projections show. U.S. Steel Corp., cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 country’s second-biggest producer of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 metal, said this week it will lay off more than 750 employees at two pipe plants as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 oil-price slump cuts investments by energy companies.
Both JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Evercore ISI slashed ratings on industrial stocks in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last week, citing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 decline in oil and natural gas prices. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), along with Actuant Corp. and Parker-Hannifin Corp., were lowered to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 equivalent of a sell by JPMorgan’s Ann Duignan. Evercore’s David Raso cut his ratings on Caterpillar, Terex Corp. and United Rentals Inc., saying cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 three machinery companies have cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 most to lose from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 selloff in energy prices.

Capital Spending

Projects by companies in fields such as in fracking, drilling and rigs have ramped up in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 last five to 10 years and now account for about 40 percent of all capital spending, Citigroup Inc.’s Tobias Levkovich wrote in an October note.
Bank of America’s opinion that oil’s slump will trim profits contrasts with Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s view. The latter’s David Kostin reiterated in a Jan. 5 note that every drop of $10 a barrel lifts earnings by $2 a share.
While cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price declines in energy stocks have left cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 group with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 weakest influence on U.S. equities in nine years, overall profit growth for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500 will still be crimped this year.
Earnings at energy companies of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 index will fall 22 percent in 2015, bringing down cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 increase for profit by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 broader gauge to 6.4 percent, according to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg. When oil prices reached a high in June, earnings growth was projected to be 6 percent for energy shares and 11 percent for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 data show.

Profit Share

Oil-and-gas producers will make up 9 percent of S&P 500 profits this year, down from 11 percent in 2014, according to Suzuki. Consumer-discretionary companies will account for 10 percent of profit this year, with staples stocks making up 8 percent, he said.
“Capital spending slows when cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 oil price falls,” David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Sarasota, Florida-based Cumberland Advisors Inc., said in a note yesterday. His firm oversees about $2.3 billion. “We already see that process unfolding. Energy capital expenditures will decline; cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 U.S. renaissance in oil will slow, and development and exploration will be curtailed.”
To contact cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reporter on this story: Inyoung Hwang in London at ihwang7@bloomberg.net
To contact cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 editors responsible for this story: Cecile Vannucci at cvannucci1@bloomberg.netChris Nagi

Friday, January 2, 2015

Wall Street Strategists Expect Stocks to Keep Climbing in 2015

Wall Street Strategists Expect Stocks to Keep Climbing in 2015

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Wall Street strategists are expecting anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r year of solid growth for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stock market.
As we highlighted in Friday’s Morning MoneyBeat, 22 strategists are estimating an average increase of 8.2% for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P 500 in 2015, according to Birinyi Associates. If that happens, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P would finish 2015 at 2228.
The predictions of an 8.2% increase follow three straight years of double digits gains for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 index. It climbed an eye-popping 63.7% in that span.
The S&P has risen an average of 5.6% annually since 1927, according to Birinyi.
Positives for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stock market this year include an improving U.S. economy, continued strength from corporate America and low oil prices. On cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 flip side, market watchers see cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 record rally decelerating – albeit only slightly – as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Federal Reserve is poised to scale back its stimulus program and global growth sputters.
Thomas Lee of FundStrat Advisors is among cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 most optimistic of strategists for a second year running. As we noted in Wednesday’s 2014 strategist scorecard, Mr. Lee’s initial target overshot cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P’s final level by only 16 points while his peers underestimated cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 market’s strength by an average 118 points.
David Kostin of Goldman Sachs, on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r hand, is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 most cautious of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 22 strategists Birinyi surveyed. He anticipates a mild 2% gain on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P and writes that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price-to-earnings multiple expansion of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 six-year bull market is over.
Here’s where cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 strategists surveyed by Birinyi stand on 2015:
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