Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Daily Credit Market Summary: April 7 - Credit Unch!?

Spreads were mixed in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 US today with IG worse, HVOL wider, ExHVOL better, XO stronger, and HY rallying, although moves were generally minimal with a late day rally in IG cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 only bright spot. Indices typically underperformed single-names with skews mostly narrower as IG underperformed but narrowed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 skew, HVOL underperformed but narrowed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 skew, ExHVOL outperformed pushing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 skew wider, XO underperformed but compressed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 skew, and HY outperformed but narrowed cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 skew.

The names having cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 largest impact on IG are Textron Financial Corp (-78.58bps) pushing IG 0.54bps tighter, and National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corporation (+55bps) adding 0.42bps to IG. HVOL is more sensitive with Textron Financial Corp pushing it 2.54bps tighter, and Alcoa Inc. contributing 0.84bps to HVOL's change today. The less volatile ExHVOL's move today is driven by both Avnet Inc. (-12.5bps) pushing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 index 0.12bps tighter, and National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corporation (+55bps) adding 0.53bps to ExHVOL.

The price of investment grade credit fell 0.04% to around 96.14% of par, while cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 price of high yield credits rose 0.125% to around 73.88% of par. ABX market prices are lower by 0.15% of par or in absolute terms, 0.43%. Broadly speaking, CMBX market prices are lower by 0.28% of par or in absolute terms, 0.88%. Volatility (VIX) is down -0.47pts to 40.81%, with 10Y TSY rallying (yield falling) 2.8bps to 2.9% and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 2s10s curve steepened by 0.4bps, as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cost of protection on US Treasuries rose 3bps to 50bps. 2Y swap spreads tightened 0.5bps to 59.75bps, as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 TED Spread tightened by -1.3bps to 0.96% and Libor-OIS deteriorated 0.5bps to 94.3bps.

The Dollar strengcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ned with DXY rising 0.81% to 85.259, Oil falling $2.08 to $48.97 (underperforming cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 dollar as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 value of Oil (rebased to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 value of gold) fell by 5.72% today (a 3.26% drop in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 relative (dollar adjusted) value of a barrel of oil), and Gold increasing $15.19 to $884.09 as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 S&P is down (816 -1.73%) underperforming IG credits (189.5bps -0.04%) while IG, which opened wider at 192bps, underperforms HY credits. IG11 and XOver11 are +5bps and +20.5bps respectively while ITRX11 is +3bps to 164.25bps.

The majority of credit curves steepened as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 vol term structure steepened with VIX/VIXV decreasing implying a more bearish/more volatile short-term outlook (normally indicative of short-term spread decompression expectations).

Dispersion fell -2.9bps in IG. Broad market dispersion is a little greater than historically expected given current spread levels, indicating more general discrimination among credits than on average over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past year, and dispersion increasing more than expected today indicating a less systemic and more idiosyncratic spread widening/tightening at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 tails.

43% of IG credits are shifting by more than 3bps and 51% of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 CDX universe are also shifting significantly (less than cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 5 day average of 59%). The number of names wider than cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 index increased by 1 to 49 as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 day's range fell to 8bps (one-week average 9.5bps), between low bid at 187 and high offer at 195 and higher beta credits (-0.05%) outperformed lower beta credits (0.52%).

In IG, wideners outpaced tighteners by around 3-to-2, with 56 credits wider. By sector, CONS saw 43% names wider, ENRGs 50% names wider, FINLs 33% names wider, INDUs 61% names wider, and TMTs 35% names wider. Focusing on non-financials, Europe (ITRX Main exFINLS) underperformed US (IG12 exFINLs) with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 former trading at 164.56bps and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latter at 184.8bps.

Cross Market, we are seeing cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 HY-XOver spread compressing to 425.94bps from 451.97bps, but remains below cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 short-term average of 489.09bps, with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 HY/XOver ratio falling to 1.46x, below its 5-day mean of 1.52x. The IG-Main spread compressed to 25.25bps from 27.25bps, but remains above cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 short-term average of 25.11bps, with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 IG/Main ratio falling to 1.15x, above its 5-day mean of 1.15x.

In cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 US, non-financials underperformed financials as IG12 ExFINLs are wider by 0.9bps to 184.8bps, with 33 of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 104 names tighter. while among US Financials, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 CDR Counterparty Risk Index fell 0.62bps to 248.45bps, with Banks (worst) tighter by 3.11bps to 343.68bps, Brokers (best) tighter by 5bps to 313.83bps, and Finance names tighter by 38.39bps to 1080.86bps. Monolines are trading tighter on average by -95.84bps (2.81%) to 2349.35bps.

In IG12, FINLs outperformed non-FINLs (0.71% tighter to 0.5% wider respectively), with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 former (IG11 FINLs) tighter by 3.8bps to 538.6bps, with 12 of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 21 names tighter. The IG CDS market (as per CDX) is -12bps rich (we'd expect LQD to outperform TLH) to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 LQD-TLH-implied valuation of investment grade credit (201.5bps), with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bond ETFs underperforming cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 IG CDS market by around 1.05bps.

In Europe, ITRX Main ex-FINLs (underperforming FINLs) widened 3.06bps to 164.56bps (with ITRX FINLs -trending tighter- weaker by 2.75 to 163bps) and is currently trading tight to its week's range at 19.74%, between 177 to 161.5bps, and is trending tighter. Main LoVOL (sideways trading) is currently trading in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 middle of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 week's range at 61.61%, between 113.29 to 103.11bps. ExHVOL outperformed LoVOL as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 differential compressed to -5.3bps from -1.64bps, but remains below cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 short-term average of 1.41bps. The Main exFINLS to IG ExHVOL differential decompressed to 60.48bps from 57bps, and remains above cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 short-term average of 58.53bps.

Commentary compliments of www.creditresearch.com

Index/Intrinsics Changes

CDR LQD 50 NAIG091 +1.25bps to 281.51 (23 wider - 20 tighter <> 25 steeper - 25 flatter).

CDX12 IG +1bps to 189.5 ($-0.04 to $96.14) (FV +0.73bps to 239.26) (60 wider - 40 tighter <> 67 steeper - 55 flatter) - Trend Tighter.

CDX12 HVOL +0.5bps to 455 (FV -0.12bps to 645.34) (17 wider - 10 tighter <> 15 steeper - 15 flatter) - Trend Tighter.

CDX12 ExHVOL +1.16bps to 105.66 (FV +0.95bps to 131.57) (43 wider - 52 tighter <> 43 steeper - 52 flatter).

CDX11 XO -0.4bps to 544.2 (FV -4.62bps to 570.39) (19 wider - 8 tighter <> 20 steeper - 15 flatter) - Trend Tighter.

CDX12 HY (30% recovery) Px $+0.13 to $73.88 / -5.8bps to 1360.7 (FV +24.55bps to 1289.88) (53 wider - 33 tighter <> 51 steeper - 47 flatter) - Trend Tighter.

LCDX10 (55% recovery) Px $+0.25 to $74.75 / -19.36bps to 1470.8 - Trend Tighter.

MCDX11 0bps to 220bps. - Trend Tighter.

CDR Counterparty Risk Index fell 0.25bps (-0.1%) to 248.82bps (9 wider - 6 tighter).

DXY strengcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ned 0.81% to 85.26.

Oil fell $2.08 to $48.97.

Gold rose $15.19 to $884.09.

VIX fell 0.47pts to 40.81%.

10Y US Treasury yields fell 2.4bps to 2.9%.

S&P500 Futures lost 1.73% to 816. Sphere: Related Content
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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great stuff

thanks for doing this each day

Anonymous said...

Keep up cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 good work