Thursday, January 29, 2009
Is Fortress Investment Group On The Edge Of Insolvency?
Oregon Investment Council, which manages $60 billion, and already has a sizable stake with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 manager, is considering whecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r or not to bail cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 firm out and on what terms. According to Fortress "$80 million will allow cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fund to hold investments until prices rebound, potentially yielding a three to five times return on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 new capital invested." Judging by how cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 CMBS market is acting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se days, a promise of a "five times return" on any real estate fund, is definitely fit for a stand up comedy routine on late night TV. Sphere: Related Content
Thursday, January 22, 2009
New York Times in Sale Leaseback Talks with W.P. Carey

Carlos Slim NYT 13/G Filed: Owns 16.21% Of New York Times Stock
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
New York Times: Rescue Financing 8-K Filed
- Creating liens on any properties
- Incur additional debt prior to March 2010, if pro forma leverage is higher than 2.75x
- Engage in sale/leaseback transactions, with up to $225 million carveout for NYT HQ building
- Merge or consolidate with ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r assets
- Transfer or sell assets, with any sales over $10 million have to be used to pay down debt
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Bank of America Can Only Drop Anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r $5.94...
17% down today. What is over/under days until Ken Lewis' resignation. We say 10
*******UPDATE********
$5.65 to zero now Sphere: Related Content
Next Up On cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Gallows: Chemical LBOs
Ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r companies that levered up and haven't seen benefits from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir leverage are Georgia Gulf (GGC) which has been on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 verge of filing for who knows how long, and Chemtura (CEM), which caused activist investor Nelson Peltz and his fund Trian to lose boatload of cash over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past several years. Amusingly, it is none ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r than enfant terrible Jeffrey Gendell that had built up an 11 million share position in CEM as of Sept. 30, probably a day or two before he had to liquidate his fund.
We welcome cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se new Death Watch participants and wish cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m success in reaching cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 top of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 DW pile in no time. Sphere: Related Content
Death Watch: Banking System

State Street Next Blowup?
*********UPDATE**********
Stock trading at $18 post open
*********UPDATE 2**********
Closed $14.89 - wow Sphere: Related Content
Monday, January 19, 2009
Breaking News: NYT Bailed Out (For Now); It's Official

"We are very pleased to expand our strong relationship with The New York Times Company," said Arturo Elias, director of Inmobiliaria Carso. "We believe that with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 strength of The New York Times brand, its national and international reach, its potential for digital expansion and most of all, its world-class news and information, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Company will continue to be a leader in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 media industry."
Banco Inbursa and Inmobiliaria Carso also received detachable warrants for an aggregate amount of 15.9 million Class A shares (50 percent each), at a strike price of $6.3572. The warrants expire in January 2015.
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sole placement agent for this transaction, and Goldman Sachs advised cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Company.
British Pound: His Name is Robert Paulson
*POUND FALLS TO SIX-YEAR LOW OF $1.4295 AGAINST DOLLAR Sphere: Related Content
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Death Watch: NYT About to Get George Romero Treatment

Death Watch: Is Southwest (LUV) in Much More Trouble Than Perceived? Few More Words on Contango

Now with oil crashing and contango getting steeper, it is curious how companies that hedged for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 inverse are faring. In fact, one of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reasons cited by analysts for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 deep contango is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 unwind of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 costless collars that companies such as LUV and JetBlue have had to do in past months. Southwest partially confirms this in its December 23 8-K filing where it notes it has drastically reduced its future hedging program by selling it zero-cost collars. The net market impact of this unwind is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 forced selling of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 near contracts (February 2009) and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 purchase of far contracts. As cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 traded volume of near maturities is usually lower than that of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 outer, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 effect is a pronounced steepening of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 near curve as seen below. If anyone is a NYMEX trader and can confirm or deny this we would love your feedback.

So what is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 actual economic impact on heretofore beneficiaries of extensive hedging? Let's take cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 example of Southwest.
As cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company was a heavy user of "zero-cost collars and fixed-priced swaps", it was benefiting while oil was priced higher than cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 average strike price on its derivatives which had been $75/barrel for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 2009-2012 period. In its July 24 Q2 results announcement and market update, LUV noted cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "Fair Market Value of its hedges was $4.3 billion." At cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 time WTI was $125/barrel. It has now fallen to $36. Intuitively, FMV must have dropped dramatically, if not gone negative. As we are not specialists in fudging whatever FASB rule is responsible for determining FMV of Derivative contracts we will ignore this for now and instead focus on its most direct corporate proxy - cash. Here are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 facts:
- At September 30 cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company noted it had $2.4 billion in cash equivalents and $2.5 billion in Fair Value of fuel derivatives, already a big drop from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 $4.7 billion in cash and $4.3 billion in derivatives 2 months prior (WTI was at $100 on Sept. 30). Also cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company decided to access $400 million of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 $600 million available under its revolver in October, so cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 net cash balance would have been roughly $3.0 billion around that time, excluding cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 FV of fuel derivatives.
- On a December 23 update cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cash balance had dropped to $1.3 billion, net of $250 million in cash collateral calls, a huge drop from 2 months prior. One could say cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 FMV at this point is negative: over $4 billion in "value" lost from June 30, and $3.5 billion in cash equivalents burned in less than six months for a company which is ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rwise supposed to be free cash flow positive!
- On cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same update, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company announces it has essentially offset/sold its derivatives and only hedges 10% of its 2009-2013 fuel costs.
- Allegedly, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "modification of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 hedge portfolio has significantly reduced cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Company's current exposure to cash collateral requirements."
- Nonecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365less, at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same time LUV is feverishly raising cash: cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 day before cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Dec. 23 update it sells $400 million 10.5% Notes due 12/2011 which are secured by 12 737-400 aircraft; On Dec. 23 it announces it is pursuing a $350 million sale-leaseback of 10 737-700 planes at an interest rate of roughly 9%, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 leaseback is completed on Jan 8. Also curiously, an amendment (8.01.b) to its fuel hedge agreement on Dec. 23 stipulates that until January 2010, LUV has to continue to post cash collateral if "cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 obligation is below $300 million or over $700", but if it is inbetween cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company has agreed to "pledge 20 737-700s in lieu of cash"... quite odd, yet we wouldn't be surprised if this is exactly what happens.
- If cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company's claim that its hedges are truly no longer a drain of cash, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n its cash balance on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 January 22 earnings call should be about $2 billion ($1.3 billion + $750 million new proceeds), all else equal.
- Furcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rmore, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company has a cash collateral rating trigger: if its credit rating (Baa1/BBB+ currently) drops below investment grade, it would have to post cash collateral with many more counterparties. This would imply a three notch downgrade. While S&P, in a recent omnibus report claims it is not likely to downgrade LUV soon, a significant downside surprise on January 22, or additional debt-capital raises could easily change analyst Betsy Snyder's opinion.
- The continuing contango steepening is indicative that someone keeps on unwinding costless collars: is it JetBlue, Delta, or is Southwest continuing to deleverage its bad future exposure all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 while having to post cash collateral?
- Aside from just meeting its ongoing cash needs, Southwest is faced with a cliff of future contractual obligations. Its current fleet of 520 737s (425 owned, 95 leased as of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 10-K filing) is due for modernization, with 200 aircraft approaching retirement age at 16.7 avg. years (mostly 737 -300s and -500s). Its replacement plan consists of firm contracts and options to purchase up to 246 737-700s from Boeing; assuming it scraps its options, it still is on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 hook to buy 108 airplanes over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next 5 years at a cost of $3.2 billion.
- And what happens if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company manages to unhedge successfully only to see a dramatic increase in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cost of crude? Goldman Sachs research currently expects LUV's 2009 fuel expense to be $2.1 billion based on 1,459 mm mainline gallons at $1.47/gallon or $62/barrel. If hypocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365tically oil were to go up to $90, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 impact on LUV's EBIT and EBITDA, left naked without any hedges, would be -$1 billion (in ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r words each $1 change in oil cost is about $35MM in EBIT). And if oil is, again hypocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365tically, $90/barrel, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re goes cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company's projected $1 billion in 2009 EBIT.

We do not claim to have discovered anything dramatic here, just doing a little homework and getting to a few conclusions, which may be right or wrong. If this is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 case at Southwest, we are curious how JetBlue, and ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r hedging airlines must be faring. One last word: Southwest CDS trades miles tighter than anyone else in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 space. Legacy airlines and JBLU CDS trade roughly around 2000 bps (or whatever cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 points up equivalent is). LUV is at 385bps. If we are in fact correct and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 situation at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company is deteriorating rapidly, this CDS will likely begin its one-way trek wider soon, maybe as early as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 January 22 conference call. Additionally cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stock is trading at a racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r aggressive 13.3x P/E its consensus 2009 EPS (JBLU is at 10x, both DAL and UAUA are around 5x). This also seems like a racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r precarious level.
Sphere: Related Content
Blue Light Special: Hedge Fund Secondary Market Update
- SAC Multi Strategy
- Montpellier Resources
- ZLP Offshore
Additionally, an investor with some foresight is bailing out of $6.65 million in Millennium. Anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r major selling block recently has been a $20 million piece of Elliott International that a seller has been dangling for a while.
On cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r side, Ore Hill must have done something right: cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is $35 million in bid side interest.
For people new to this whole hedge fund thing, and why archaeologists may be looking for its bones soon enough, read cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 full scoop here, courtesy of Louise Story of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 New York Times (Deathwatch CDS at 962bps) Sphere: Related Content