Showing posts with label Deathwatch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Deathwatch. Show all posts

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Is Fortress Investment Group On The Edge Of Insolvency?

How cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 mighty have fallen. According to Bloomberg, Fortress (ticker: FIG), which was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 first hedge fund to IPO in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 heydays of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 credit bubble in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 summer of 2007 is trying to raise $80 million to fund margin calls associated with its investment in Gagfah, a German residential property operator, as well as two ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r real estate investment funds, Eurocastle and Nationstar. Allegedly cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 margin calls have occurred at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Fortress Investment Fund III, a $2 billion real estate pool raised in 2004, however as Fortress (whose shares last traded at $1.34/share or a 93% drop from its IPO) has already called all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 capital from Fund III, according to Bloomberg, it is likely that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is essentially no cash left anywhere in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 organization for intercompany transfers.

Oregon Investment Council, which manages $60 billion, and already has a sizable stake with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 manager, is considering whecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r or not to bail cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 firm out and on what terms. According to Fortress "$80 million will allow cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 fund to hold investments until prices rebound, potentially yielding a three to five times return on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 new capital invested." Judging by how cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 CMBS market is acting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se days, a promise of a "five times return" on any real estate fund, is definitely fit for a stand up comedy routine on late night TV. Sphere: Related Content

Thursday, January 22, 2009

New York Times in Sale Leaseback Talks with W.P. Carey

In one of those nauseating mirror-in-a-mirror type of news events, NYT reports that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 NYT is in advanced sale-leaseback talks with W.P. Carey. NYT did not disclose to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 NYT how much W.P.Carey would pay, what cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cost to repurchase is or what cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 rent cost would be. “Because we are in continuing discussions, we cannot comment on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 status of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sale-leaseback,” Ms. Mathis, a spokesman for NYT said.

A little about cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 low profile W.P.Carey:

Founded in 1973 by William Polk Carey, W. P. Carey has its headquarters in Rockefeller Center in New York. It operates in 14 countries and arranges sale-leasebacks for a wide variety of industries. The company has about $10 billion in assets under management, about $2 billion of which is owned by its public company. The ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r $8 billion in assets are owned by W. P. Carey’s four real estate investment trusts and managed by cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 public company.
Sphere: Related Content

Carlos Slim NYT 13/G Filed: Owns 16.21% Of New York Times Stock

According to cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 SEC filing, Carlos is now cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 proud owner of 25,754,000 shares of Class A NYT stock, or 16.21% of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 outstanding stock. Sphere: Related Content

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

New York Times: Rescue Financing 8-K Filed

Most interestingly among cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 negative covenants listed:
  • Creating liens on any properties
  • Incur additional debt prior to March 2010, if pro forma leverage is higher than 2.75x
  • Engage in sale/leaseback transactions, with up to $225 million carveout for NYT HQ building
  • Merge or consolidate with ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r assets
  • Transfer or sell assets, with any sales over $10 million have to be used to pay down debt
There is also a 101% change of control put. Sphere: Related Content

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Bank of America Can Only Drop Anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r $5.94...

...Before it hits $0
17% down today. What is over/under days until Ken Lewis' resignation. We say 10

*******UPDATE********

$5.65 to zero now Sphere: Related Content

Next Up On cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Gallows: Chemical LBOs

And y'all thought Lyondell is going to be cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 only spectacular chemical LBO bankruptcy. The list is long and focuses mostly on plastics makers: Ineos, Chemtura and Georgia Gulf. The third-largest producer of polypropylene sealed its fate in 2005 when it bought BP's Innovene unit for $9 billion. Net debt most recently was $9.7 billion, 4.3x more than LTM EBITDA according to CFO John Reece. Of course cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 matter of plummeting EBITDA... Doubt leverage will be cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re for long time. The company recently amended terms on its maximum leverage covenant to increase it to 5.25x from 4.6x; doubt this will help for more than a quarter or so.

Ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r companies that levered up and haven't seen benefits from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365ir leverage are Georgia Gulf (GGC) which has been on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 verge of filing for who knows how long, and Chemtura (CEM), which caused activist investor Nelson Peltz and his fund Trian to lose boatload of cash over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 past several years. Amusingly, it is none ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r than enfant terrible Jeffrey Gendell that had built up an 11 million share position in CEM as of Sept. 30, probably a day or two before he had to liquidate his fund.

We welcome cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365se new Death Watch participants and wish cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365m success in reaching cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 top of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 DW pile in no time. Sphere: Related Content

Death Watch: Banking System

Or at least according to Nouriel Roubini. The NYU professor and longtime pessimist fired cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 latest shot across cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 bow of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 financial house of cards. His claim: financial losses from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 credit crisis may reach $3.6 trillion, suggesting cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 banking system is "effectively insolvent."
"The problems of Citi, Banc of America and ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs suggest cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 system is bankrupt. In Europe it's cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same thing." He also thinks that oil will trade between $30 and $40 a barrel throughout 2009.
We love this guy.
Sphere: Related Content

State Street Next Blowup?

State Street (STT) stock tumbled 33% in premarket trading (last at $24/share). The world's largest money manager for institutions said 2009 profit will be little changed from last year after Q4 earnings fell 71%. What is curious is that according to Bloomberg out of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 18 analysts who cover cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stock, 9 have a buy rating, 9 have a hold and 0 are at sell...yup, good to see sell-side research ahead of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ball on this one too. Dick Bove will have more reasons to vent his anger at Vikram, with his STT price target of $50.

*********UPDATE**********

Stock trading at $18 post open

*********UPDATE 2**********

Closed $14.89 - wow Sphere: Related Content

Monday, January 19, 2009

Breaking News: NYT Bailed Out (For Now); It's Official

Just out: The New York Times Company Enters into Agreement with Banco Inbursa and Inmobiliaria Carso for $250 Million in Senior Unsecured Notes.

Holy Jeebus: 14.053% interest!!! And of course Goldman Sachs.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 19, 2009--The New York Times Company today announced that it had entered into a private financing agreement with Banco Inbursa, S. A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, Grupo Financiero Inbursa ("Banco Inbursa") and Inmobiliaria Carso for an aggregate amount of $250 million ($125 million each) in senior unsecured notes due 2015 with detachable warrants. The notes will rank equally and ratably on a senior unsecured basis with all senior unsecured obligations of The New York Times Company.

"This agreement provides us with increased financial flexibility to continue to execute on our long-term strategy," said Janet L. Robinson, president and CEO. "The proceeds from this transaction will be used to refinance existing debt, including amounts currently borrowed under a revolving credit facility that matures in May 2009. We continue to explore ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r financing initiatives and are focused on reducing our total debt through cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cash we generate from our businesses and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 decisive steps we have taken to reduce costs, lower capital spending, decrease our dividend and rebalance our portfolio of assets."

"We are very pleased to expand our strong relationship with The New York Times Company," said Arturo Elias, director of Inmobiliaria Carso. "We believe that with cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 strength of The New York Times brand, its national and international reach, its potential for digital expansion and most of all, its world-class news and information, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Company will continue to be a leader in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 media industry."

The notes have a coupon of 14.053 percent, of which cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Company may elect to pay 3 percent in kind. The notes are callable beginning three years from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 issue date at 105 percent of par, with subsequent call prices declining ratably to par.

Banco Inbursa and Inmobiliaria Carso also received detachable warrants for an aggregate amount of 15.9 million Class A shares (50 percent each), at a strike price of $6.3572. The warrants expire in January 2015.

Mr. Carlos Slim Helu and members of his family are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 main shareholders of Grupo Financiero Inbursa, S.A B. de C.V., which is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 parent company of Banco Inbursa, and are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 owners of Inmobiliaria Carso, which currently holds 6.9 percent of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Times Company's Class A shares.

SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. was cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 sole placement agent for this transaction, and Goldman Sachs advised cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Company.

Hear that Scott Galloway, THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE!!!!! No clue where cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 hell NYT CDS trades on this news.
Sphere: Related Content

British Pound: His Name is Robert Paulson

*POUND WEAKENS ON SPECULATION U.K. CREDIT LOSSES WILL SPREAD
*POUND FALLS TO SIX-YEAR LOW OF $1.4295 AGAINST DOLLAR Sphere: Related Content

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Death Watch: NYT About to Get George Romero Treatment

I guess cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 expression "throwing good money after bad" hasn't quite made it to Tijuana yet. NYT reports that Carlos Slim is about to invest $250 million of 10 year 10% convertible preferred stock and that cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 New York Times board is meeting on Monday to formalize his investment. Surprisingly Slim is "not expected to get any representation on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company’s board or any shares with special voting rights like those of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Sulzberger family, which controls cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company." As we speculated, this is odd, seeing he has already lost over $70 million on his initial NYT investment. But let cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 man dream. In cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 meantime, mufkateer Galloway should be happy cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Mexican has bought him some more time to prepare for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 final duel with Connor MacLeod. Sphere: Related Content

Death Watch: Is Southwest (LUV) in Much More Trouble Than Perceived? Few More Words on Contango

We like Southwest - cheap tickets, drunk passengers on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Vegas flights, hot passengers on ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rs, sweet equity ticker... Yet something is fishy in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 city of Dallas... The company which was a perennial LBO candidate back in late 2006 and early 2007, somehow managed to escape unscacá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365d through cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "oil at $140" phase when most ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r airlines' shares had fallen to penny-stock levels. This can be attributed to its fortuitous hedging program that was started a decade ago, when its legacy competitors were trying to deal with outsized pension costs and massive debtloads (and most ended up in bankruptcy).

Now with oil crashing and contango getting steeper, it is curious how companies that hedged for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 inverse are faring. In fact, one of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 reasons cited by analysts for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 deep contango is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 unwind of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 costless collars that companies such as LUV and JetBlue have had to do in past months. Southwest partially confirms this in its December 23 8-K filing where it notes it has drastically reduced its future hedging program by selling it zero-cost collars. The net market impact of this unwind is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 forced selling of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 near contracts (February 2009) and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 purchase of far contracts. As cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 traded volume of near maturities is usually lower than that of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 outer, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 effect is a pronounced steepening of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 near curve as seen below. If anyone is a NYMEX trader and can confirm or deny this we would love your feedback.



So what is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 actual economic impact on heretofore beneficiaries of extensive hedging? Let's take cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 example of Southwest.

As cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company was a heavy user of "zero-cost collars and fixed-priced swaps", it was benefiting while oil was priced higher than cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 average strike price on its derivatives which had been $75/barrel for cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 2009-2012 period. In its July 24 Q2 results announcement and market update, LUV noted cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "Fair Market Value of its hedges was $4.3 billion." At cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 time WTI was $125/barrel. It has now fallen to $36. Intuitively, FMV must have dropped dramatically, if not gone negative. As we are not specialists in fudging whatever FASB rule is responsible for determining FMV of Derivative contracts we will ignore this for now and instead focus on its most direct corporate proxy - cash. Here are cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 facts:

  • At September 30 cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company noted it had $2.4 billion in cash equivalents and $2.5 billion in Fair Value of fuel derivatives, already a big drop from cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 $4.7 billion in cash and $4.3 billion in derivatives 2 months prior (WTI was at $100 on Sept. 30). Also cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company decided to access $400 million of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 $600 million available under its revolver in October, so cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 net cash balance would have been roughly $3.0 billion around that time, excluding cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 FV of fuel derivatives.

  • On a December 23 update cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cash balance had dropped to $1.3 billion, net of $250 million in cash collateral calls, a huge drop from 2 months prior. One could say cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 FMV at this point is negative: over $4 billion in "value" lost from June 30, and $3.5 billion in cash equivalents burned in less than six months for a company which is ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rwise supposed to be free cash flow positive!

  • On cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same update, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company announces it has essentially offset/sold its derivatives and only hedges 10% of its 2009-2013 fuel costs.



  • Allegedly, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 "modification of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 hedge portfolio has significantly reduced cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Company's current exposure to cash collateral requirements."

  • Nonecá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365less, at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 same time LUV is feverishly raising cash: cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 day before cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 Dec. 23 update it sells $400 million 10.5% Notes due 12/2011 which are secured by 12 737-400 aircraft; On Dec. 23 it announces it is pursuing a $350 million sale-leaseback of 10 737-700 planes at an interest rate of roughly 9%, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 leaseback is completed on Jan 8. Also curiously, an amendment (8.01.b) to its fuel hedge agreement on Dec. 23 stipulates that until January 2010, LUV has to continue to post cash collateral if "cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 obligation is below $300 million or over $700", but if it is inbetween cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company has agreed to "pledge 20 737-700s in lieu of cash"... quite odd, yet we wouldn't be surprised if this is exactly what happens.

  • If cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company's claim that its hedges are truly no longer a drain of cash, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365n its cash balance on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 January 22 earnings call should be about $2 billion ($1.3 billion + $750 million new proceeds), all else equal.

  • Furcá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365rmore, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company has a cash collateral rating trigger: if its credit rating (Baa1/BBB+ currently) drops below investment grade, it would have to post cash collateral with many more counterparties. This would imply a three notch downgrade. While S&P, in a recent omnibus report claims it is not likely to downgrade LUV soon, a significant downside surprise on January 22, or additional debt-capital raises could easily change analyst Betsy Snyder's opinion.

  • The continuing contango steepening is indicative that someone keeps on unwinding costless collars: is it JetBlue, Delta, or is Southwest continuing to deleverage its bad future exposure all cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 while having to post cash collateral?

  • Aside from just meeting its ongoing cash needs, Southwest is faced with a cliff of future contractual obligations. Its current fleet of 520 737s (425 owned, 95 leased as of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 10-K filing) is due for modernization, with 200 aircraft approaching retirement age at 16.7 avg. years (mostly 737 -300s and -500s). Its replacement plan consists of firm contracts and options to purchase up to 246 737-700s from Boeing; assuming it scraps its options, it still is on cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 hook to buy 108 airplanes over cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 next 5 years at a cost of $3.2 billion.

  • And what happens if cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company manages to unhedge successfully only to see a dramatic increase in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 cost of crude? Goldman Sachs research currently expects LUV's 2009 fuel expense to be $2.1 billion based on 1,459 mm mainline gallons at $1.47/gallon or $62/barrel. If hypocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365tically oil were to go up to $90, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 impact on LUV's EBIT and EBITDA, left naked without any hedges, would be -$1 billion (in ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r words each $1 change in oil cost is about $35MM in EBIT). And if oil is, again hypocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365tically, $90/barrel, cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re goes cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company's projected $1 billion in 2009 EBIT.

We do not claim to have discovered anything dramatic here, just doing a little homework and getting to a few conclusions, which may be right or wrong. If this is cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 case at Southwest, we are curious how JetBlue, and ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r hedging airlines must be faring. One last word: Southwest CDS trades miles tighter than anyone else in cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 space. Legacy airlines and JBLU CDS trade roughly around 2000 bps (or whatever cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 points up equivalent is). LUV is at 385bps. If we are in fact correct and cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 situation at cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 company is deteriorating rapidly, this CDS will likely begin its one-way trek wider soon, maybe as early as cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 January 22 conference call. Additionally cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 stock is trading at a racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r aggressive 13.3x P/E its consensus 2009 EPS (JBLU is at 10x, both DAL and UAUA are around 5x). This also seems like a racá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r precarious level.


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Blue Light Special: Hedge Fund Secondary Market Update

On January 18 hedgebay.com announced cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 following $10 million blocks for sale:
- SAC Multi Strategy
- Montpellier Resources
- ZLP Offshore

Additionally, an investor with some foresight is bailing out of $6.65 million in Millennium. Anocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r major selling block recently has been a $20 million piece of Elliott International that a seller has been dangling for a while.

On cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 ocá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365r side, Ore Hill must have done something right: cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365re is $35 million in bid side interest.

For people new to this whole hedge fund thing, and why archaeologists may be looking for its bones soon enough, read cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 full scoop here, courtesy of Louise Story of cá cược thể thao bet365_cách nạp tiền vào bet365_ đăng ký bet365 New York Times (Deathwatch CDS at 962bps) Sphere: Related Content